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Sunday, June 19, 2016
Trump Tells Others to Hush
Yes. I continue to think that Trump is an idiot... I hope I don't finally decide he is the best of the bad candidates...
Trump is under the mistaken impression that other Republicans, particularly elected Republicans work for him, that they are his employees. Donald is not a man who learns things, or knows things, but if he were, he would learn very quickly that they do not and are not.
Once again, Trump speaks the common sense truth in the way most distressing to the establishment and the PC crowd. I don't think he "knows" this, but he has discovered the major media's game: take something said by one Republican and immediately rush to all other Republicans demanding they renounce it. Even when it is exactly right. And Republicans tend to fall for that gambit every time. You NEVER see that trick pulled on Democrats.
I don't plan on treating my daughters -- when they are in their mid-30s and accomplished in their careers -- as little girls.
If it had been Don Jr. that had pushed Trump to oust Lewandowski, there's precisely zero chance you would have labeled that link "At Least He Listens To His Little Boy".
The news yesterday was that the family had intervened to persuade Donald to fire his campaign manager. The news media covered that in terms of campaign effectiveness, but what I think happened is that the family was more concerned about the brand. This campaign has resulted in greatly enhanced scrutiny on how Donald Trump does business and it has not been pretty.
I am kind of guessing we are stuck with him... That revolt could turn pretty messy, and possibly violent.
I am a fan of the concept that new roles can cause big change in people. Like when a young immature person becomes a parent, most people mature pretty quickly.
Even Obama stated that he experienced a huge change between when he was candidate Obama and President Obama...
The big question is can Trump become more mature / wise or will he be a Peter Principle example.
Even a moderate Republican like me is going to have a hard time voting for him if he does not learn to behave and speak like a rationale professional adult, instead of a spoiled child.
Laurie, I think you are correct. Republicans would be fools to take the Washington Post as a source of advice. From those elected at the MN State Convention, I can NOT see a "delegate revolt" coming. There will be enough people there who prefer to win, especially over Hillary, that it won't happen. And Republicans don't "turn violent," they quietly seethe.
There are only two sources of any possible delegate upheaval. The arch-conservative/libertarian side failed to stop the inevitable Romney in 2012, and couldn't even prevent that nasty rule change that kept them out (they're still mad about that, and the rule is still in place). The "establishment," through their "superdelegates," can not change the outcome either, as they do in the Democrat Party, since they essentially do not exist in the GOP.
The problem Trump has right now -- beyond his mouth -- is that he's demonstrating he's not so good at the things he's supposed to be good at.
Presumably a successful businessman like Trump ought to be able to build and operate an effective fundraising machine. The whole basis of his candidacy is built on his management experience and how his terrific-ness has made him ungodly rich. He may not know policy or understand how to put together a GOTV effort, but the money is supposed to flow his way. Not to mention that his organization appears to be in disarray at the moment. He's only got about 30 staffers (hundreds less than Clinton) and the clock is ticking on building the kind of organization in the swing states required to wage the ground game that he will need if he's going to flip an Ohio or a Florida (and realistically, he likely needs both to win).
Yet Hillary outraised him in May by a 9:1 count and has $40 million more cash on hand. (Bernie Sanders, who's been spending money at a prodigious rate in his last-ditch effort to catch Clinton has $8 million more on hand than Trump.) Trump's May fundraising was good -- for a House candidate. Super PACs backing Hillary are spending over $20 million between now and the end of July on advertising that's not going to be Trump-friendly. The RNC is $7M in debt, and frankly given that Trump is losing ground in the polls to Clinton, may well decide to try and save the Congressional majorities instead of backfilling on Trump's behalf.
That's pretty good conventional wisdom, Sean, but Trump has made a lot of hay defying the conventional wisdom. According to the CW, his candidacy should have ended a month after it started; it didn't. His fundraising problems stem from two things: a lack of Republican "establishment" donor support, and the fact he made such a big deal out of funding his own campaign PLUS not needing money because of all of the free media he has been able to get. I got a first fundraising email from him today, so maybe that will turn around, I don't know. With all the uproar about a possible "Dump Trump" at the convention, I'm guessing fundraising won't get too far until after that point when he IS the candidate.
Hillary and her PACs are pouring money into negative advertising against Trump, and the CW says that works, especially done early. But you also have the phenomenon where every time Hillary speaks her unfavorables go up. If Trump can play the victim card, or just act as if he's only half the Satan's spawn claimed in the ads, he may actually come out ahead, and essentially for free.
Now about organization: Ted Cruz was widely lauded for his superb organization and "ground game." I've never seen better, yet Trump managed to take the nomination from him without it. And for the general election, it isn't the candidate that so much drives GOTV and such, but the State and local Party organizations. From what I've seen the GOP has either been inefficient or ineffective in these efforts, certainly as far as Presidential candidates are concerned.
So, if I had to describe Trump's "problem," is that he must continue to be Trump enough to get the free media attention, but not so much Trump that people quit listening. I have a sneaking suspicion his kids are the ones telling him that he's putting the brand in jeopardy.
To secure my vote Trump needs to: - clearly state the policies/laws he will be lobbying for, and stick with them - stop calling opponents by names and start treating them professionally - start treating judges, legal immigrants, etc with respect - other?
Again, you are asking him to behave as the Conventional Wisdom candidate. He has already done a great service for the country by refusing to abide by the whims of Political Correctness, and "telling it like it is" in plain (sometimes too plain) language. People love it, and want it. I'll also point out that politicians almost NEVER talk specific policy preferences when glittering generalities serve them so much better. And that calling the opponent names is just a shorthand form of negative advertising that works a LOT better, because it is short, direct, and irrefutable. "Crooked Hillary" is a 60-second negative ad in a 1-second, quotable and media-grabbing sound bite.
I think Trump's website is an eye-opener. It's things he doesn't bother saying, but it is specific and sensible and reasonably do-able, as one suspects he would support after the campaign is over and he assumes office.
However if he wants my moderate GOP vote he needs to become less child like and more professional.
I really would prefer boring untrustworthy Clinton over crazy erratic insulting Trump when it comes to dealing with the heads of other countries and the USA's nuclear launch codes.
The reality is that he is likely to be gridlocked for almost his entire time in office. He had better learn how to build consensus amongst the GOP and hopefully some of the Democrats if he wants to get anything done. Can you even imagine the crying and complaining we will have to listen to if Congress just ignores him...
Now you thought Obama acted like an Emperor, he is nothing compared to the "current Trump".
The difference between the general election and the primary is that Hillary Clinton and her allies are going to be willing to make attacks against Trump that other Republicans weren't willing to make because the other Republicans were trying to woo the same base. Hillary just has to cap Trump's inroads to the independents, while Trump has to pretty much run all of the swing states in order to win the election. (Democrats have won states totaling 242 electoral votes in each of the last four elections.) Polling so far shows that Hillary expanding the Democratic map into places like Arizona (where a poll last week had her within the margin of error, after Romney won the state by 10 four years ago) is more likely than Trump peeling off any of those 242.
Trump's inability to build an organization is going to kill him because he can't rely on the state parties. You think John Kasich and his allies are going to go all-out for Trump in Ohio? (How many Republicans have won the White House without winning Ohio?) They're far more likely to ignore Trump and try to protect Rob Portman instead.
Trump's campaign relies on free media, and that may come back to bite him. Every shaky business deal he's ever had is going to get dissected between now and November. And he hasn't exactly shown "grace under fire" when facing difficult questioning. How would Trump have fared testifying in Congress for 11 hours like Clinton did?
However if he wants my moderate GOP vote he needs to become less child like and more professional.
I don't think the chances that a guy who has spent 70 years on this Earth as a child, has much of a chance of growing up in the next month or two. Meanwhile Republicans need to give us a persuasive argument in the next month or two why a 70 year old man with the maturity of an 8 year old should be given access to the nuclear codes.
I think he's tightroping at the moment, because to get your "moderate GOP vote" he would have to lose some number of "angry, sick and tired of PC nonsense and government fighting us every step of the way" voters, from both parties. If this becomes an election of status quo Hillary versus shake-things-up Trump, Trump could win, and handily.
As for dealing with other countries, I think Trump might be like Reagan, perceived as "a little bit crazy" and that is actually beneficial. We've tried the bendover Obama style and that's gotten us nowhere.
As for gridlock, I simply don't see it, unless the Democrats take over Congress. We've got the opposite now, with Obama in the WH and the GOP "controlling" Congress. Hillary vs the GOP would be more of the highly-undesirable same (where gridlock would be an improvement), except that Senate Republicans couldn't politically block Hillary's radical SCOTUS appointments for four years, and that's a deal-breaker for me. Trump vs the Democrats would be different and, because of his bombastic, non-PC style, could be better-- he could go over Congress' heads, like Reagan did. And his supposed "Obama-like" authoritarianism might work in our favor, too, compared to what Obama has wrought. Trump with a GOP Congress would work very well, if you go by Trump's official website policies and his recent policy agenda discussions with Paul Ryan.
The way I see it, he just needs to "tone it down" a bit and indicate he actually wants to do the job rather than just lobbing rhetorical grenades. Firecrackers are probably good enough.
Trump is under the mistaken impression that other Republicans, particularly elected Republicans work for him, that they are his employees. Donald is not a man who learns things, or knows things, but if he were, he would learn very quickly that they do not and are not.
ReplyDelete--Hiram
Once again, Trump speaks the common sense truth in the way most distressing to the establishment and the PC crowd. I don't think he "knows" this, but he has discovered the major media's game: take something said by one Republican and immediately rush to all other Republicans demanding they renounce it. Even when it is exactly right. And Republicans tend to fall for that gambit every time. You NEVER see that trick pulled on Democrats.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Trump Understands that He is Losing
ReplyDeleteAt Least He Listens to His Little Girl
"At Least He Listens to His Little Girl"
ReplyDeleteThat's not patronizing at all...
Do you have a daughter? Lighten up... :-)
ReplyDeleteMine will always be my little girls no matter how old they are?
Currently 15, 18 & 21 by the way... And the HS Grad Party was a great success on Saturday... I can start reclaiming my garage !!!
"Do you have a daughter?"
ReplyDeleteTwo.
I don't plan on treating my daughters -- when they are in their mid-30s and accomplished in their careers -- as little girls.
If it had been Don Jr. that had pushed Trump to oust Lewandowski, there's precisely zero chance you would have labeled that link "At Least He Listens To His Little Boy".
Unfortunately I don't have any "Little Boys"... :-) So you are probably correct.
ReplyDeleteHere is a book for you... Maybe it will help you to be less serious and more fun... :-)
It is one of my favorites from when I used to read my girls to sleep.
"Do you have a daughter?"
ReplyDeleteThe news yesterday was that the family had intervened to persuade Donald to fire his campaign manager. The news media covered that in terms of campaign effectiveness, but what I think happened is that the family was more concerned about the brand. This campaign has resulted in greatly enhanced scrutiny on how Donald Trump does business and it has not been pretty.
--Hiram
A delegate revolt has become Republicans’ only option
ReplyDeleteI think Trump will likely improve enough to not be replaced.
I am kind of guessing we are stuck with him... That revolt could turn pretty messy, and possibly violent.
ReplyDeleteI am a fan of the concept that new roles can cause big change in people. Like when a young immature person becomes a parent, most people mature pretty quickly.
Even Obama stated that he experienced a huge change between when he was candidate Obama and President Obama...
The big question is can Trump become more mature / wise or will he be a Peter Principle example.
Even a moderate Republican like me is going to have a hard time voting for him if he does not learn to behave and speak like a rationale professional adult, instead of a spoiled child.
Laurie, I think you are correct. Republicans would be fools to take the Washington Post as a source of advice. From those elected at the MN State Convention, I can NOT see a "delegate revolt" coming. There will be enough people there who prefer to win, especially over Hillary, that it won't happen. And Republicans don't "turn violent," they quietly seethe.
ReplyDeleteThere are only two sources of any possible delegate upheaval. The arch-conservative/libertarian side failed to stop the inevitable Romney in 2012, and couldn't even prevent that nasty rule change that kept them out (they're still mad about that, and the rule is still in place). The "establishment," through their "superdelegates," can not change the outcome either, as they do in the Democrat Party, since they essentially do not exist in the GOP.
The problem Trump has right now -- beyond his mouth -- is that he's demonstrating he's not so good at the things he's supposed to be good at.
ReplyDeletePresumably a successful businessman like Trump ought to be able to build and operate an effective fundraising machine. The whole basis of his candidacy is built on his management experience and how his terrific-ness has made him ungodly rich. He may not know policy or understand how to put together a GOTV effort, but the money is supposed to flow his way. Not to mention that his organization appears to be in disarray at the moment. He's only got about 30 staffers (hundreds less than Clinton) and the clock is ticking on building the kind of organization in the swing states required to wage the ground game that he will need if he's going to flip an Ohio or a Florida (and realistically, he likely needs both to win).
Yet Hillary outraised him in May by a 9:1 count and has $40 million more cash on hand. (Bernie Sanders, who's been spending money at a prodigious rate in his last-ditch effort to catch Clinton has $8 million more on hand than Trump.) Trump's May fundraising was good -- for a House candidate. Super PACs backing Hillary are spending over $20 million between now and the end of July on advertising that's not going to be Trump-friendly. The RNC is $7M in debt, and frankly given that Trump is losing ground in the polls to Clinton, may well decide to try and save the Congressional majorities instead of backfilling on Trump's behalf.
That's pretty good conventional wisdom, Sean, but Trump has made a lot of hay defying the conventional wisdom. According to the CW, his candidacy should have ended a month after it started; it didn't. His fundraising problems stem from two things: a lack of Republican "establishment" donor support, and the fact he made such a big deal out of funding his own campaign PLUS not needing money because of all of the free media he has been able to get. I got a first fundraising email from him today, so maybe that will turn around, I don't know. With all the uproar about a possible "Dump Trump" at the convention, I'm guessing fundraising won't get too far until after that point when he IS the candidate.
ReplyDeleteHillary and her PACs are pouring money into negative advertising against Trump, and the CW says that works, especially done early. But you also have the phenomenon where every time Hillary speaks her unfavorables go up. If Trump can play the victim card, or just act as if he's only half the Satan's spawn claimed in the ads, he may actually come out ahead, and essentially for free.
Now about organization: Ted Cruz was widely lauded for his superb organization and "ground game." I've never seen better, yet Trump managed to take the nomination from him without it. And for the general election, it isn't the candidate that so much drives GOTV and such, but the State and local Party organizations. From what I've seen the GOP has either been inefficient or ineffective in these efforts, certainly as far as Presidential candidates are concerned.
So, if I had to describe Trump's "problem," is that he must continue to be Trump enough to get the free media attention, but not so much Trump that people quit listening. I have a sneaking suspicion his kids are the ones telling him that he's putting the brand in jeopardy.
To secure my vote Trump needs to:
ReplyDelete- clearly state the policies/laws he will be lobbying for, and stick with them
- stop calling opponents by names and start treating them professionally
- start treating judges, legal immigrants, etc with respect
- other?
Again, you are asking him to behave as the Conventional Wisdom candidate. He has already done a great service for the country by refusing to abide by the whims of Political Correctness, and "telling it like it is" in plain (sometimes too plain) language. People love it, and want it. I'll also point out that politicians almost NEVER talk specific policy preferences when glittering generalities serve them so much better. And that calling the opponent names is just a shorthand form of negative advertising that works a LOT better, because it is short, direct, and irrefutable. "Crooked Hillary" is a 60-second negative ad in a 1-second, quotable and media-grabbing sound bite.
ReplyDeleteI think Trump's website is an eye-opener. It's things he doesn't bother saying, but it is specific and sensible and reasonably do-able, as one suspects he would support after the campaign is over and he assumes office.
He is free to behave anyway he chooses.
ReplyDeleteHowever if he wants my moderate GOP vote he needs to become less child like and more professional.
I really would prefer boring untrustworthy Clinton over crazy erratic insulting Trump when it comes to dealing with the heads of other countries and the USA's nuclear launch codes.
The reality is that he is likely to be gridlocked for almost his entire time in office. He had better learn how to build consensus amongst the GOP and hopefully some of the Democrats if he wants to get anything done. Can you even imagine the crying and complaining we will have to listen to if Congress just ignores him...
Now you thought Obama acted like an Emperor, he is nothing compared to the "current Trump".
The difference between the general election and the primary is that Hillary Clinton and her allies are going to be willing to make attacks against Trump that other Republicans weren't willing to make because the other Republicans were trying to woo the same base. Hillary just has to cap Trump's inroads to the independents, while Trump has to pretty much run all of the swing states in order to win the election. (Democrats have won states totaling 242 electoral votes in each of the last four elections.) Polling so far shows that Hillary expanding the Democratic map into places like Arizona (where a poll last week had her within the margin of error, after Romney won the state by 10 four years ago) is more likely than Trump peeling off any of those 242.
ReplyDeleteTrump's inability to build an organization is going to kill him because he can't rely on the state parties. You think John Kasich and his allies are going to go all-out for Trump in Ohio? (How many Republicans have won the White House without winning Ohio?) They're far more likely to ignore Trump and try to protect Rob Portman instead.
Trump's campaign relies on free media, and that may come back to bite him. Every shaky business deal he's ever had is going to get dissected between now and November. And he hasn't exactly shown "grace under fire" when facing difficult questioning. How would Trump have fared testifying in Congress for 11 hours like Clinton did?
ReplyDeleteHowever if he wants my moderate GOP vote he needs to become less child like and more professional.
I don't think the chances that a guy who has spent 70 years on this Earth as a child, has much of a chance of growing up in the next month or two. Meanwhile Republicans need to give us a persuasive argument in the next month or two why a 70 year old man with the maturity of an 8 year old should be given access to the nuclear codes.
--Hiram
I think he's tightroping at the moment, because to get your "moderate GOP vote" he would have to lose some number of "angry, sick and tired of PC nonsense and government fighting us every step of the way" voters, from both parties. If this becomes an election of status quo Hillary versus shake-things-up Trump, Trump could win, and handily.
ReplyDeleteAs for dealing with other countries, I think Trump might be like Reagan, perceived as "a little bit crazy" and that is actually beneficial. We've tried the bendover Obama style and that's gotten us nowhere.
As for gridlock, I simply don't see it, unless the Democrats take over Congress. We've got the opposite now, with Obama in the WH and the GOP "controlling" Congress. Hillary vs the GOP would be more of the highly-undesirable same (where gridlock would be an improvement), except that Senate Republicans couldn't politically block Hillary's radical SCOTUS appointments for four years, and that's a deal-breaker for me. Trump vs the Democrats would be different and, because of his bombastic, non-PC style, could be better-- he could go over Congress' heads, like Reagan did. And his supposed "Obama-like" authoritarianism might work in our favor, too, compared to what Obama has wrought. Trump with a GOP Congress would work very well, if you go by Trump's official website policies and his recent policy agenda discussions with Paul Ryan.
The way I see it, he just needs to "tone it down" a bit and indicate he actually wants to do the job rather than just lobbing rhetorical grenades. Firecrackers are probably good enough.