Raising social involvement, self awareness and self improvement topics, because our communities are the sum of our personal beliefs, behaviors, action or inaction. Only "we" can improve our family, work place, school, city, country, etc.
So far just this year, flu has killed 10,000 in the US. The Wuhan virus 362. So which has the whole country panicked? Answer: the media darling COVID. Why? to blame it on Trump.
As we test more people the fatality rate will drop. Already some 60% of the infected have survived it, and in a couple weeks that number will climb faster, I suspect, than the fatality rate.
The extreme measures being taken here will rapidly slow the infection rate, so if you're not infected now you won't be. So in two weeks the whole panic will be over. How long the media-driven hype and panic will last after that, we don't know.
"highly contagious" Trump had contact with a half-dozen of the infected, and he's negative.
Figures I have seen say the "worst" cruise ship had about 10% testing positive and about 1% dying from it. Meanwhile, the flu kills 10,000 Americans and nobody is rushing to buy toilet paper to avoid THAT.
And that vaccine is 60-70% effective against KNOWN strains of the flu bug. So, if the Wuhan virus turns out to be as virulent as the flu and the same number of people get it (both unlikely), then roughly three times as many will die. In the US that would be 30,000 this year. So far we have what, 60? 0.2%? And for that we will curb all essential freedoms and liberties, and cower in our homes clutching our 24-packs of toilet paper? Sorry, but I refuse to panic about things I am TOLD to panic about.
enjoy. I find it difficult to enjoy when all of my usual activities, and many that are not my usual, are being essentially prohibited either by government or by private entities succumbing to what seems like a disproportionate panic reaction. With all we have done to contain the flu, we've still lost 10,000 Americans so far this year, and nobody blinks. Yet we're seeing extraordinary measures--"cancel everything"-- taken because of 0.6% as many deaths, most of them in one poorly managed nursing home in WA.
And no one has yet made a sensible explanation how 24 rolls of TP protects you from a virus. Sure sounds like panic to me.
My prediction: If these extreme measures hold over the next two weeks-- the combined time of incubation and recovery-- then all those who are infected now will be over it by then, with very minimal new infections. And the weather will get warmer, and the beneficent dictators can take the credit for the Global Warming.
"If these extreme measures hold over the next two weeks-- the combined time of incubation and recovery-- then all those who are infected now will be over it by then, with very minimal new infections."
Yes. If we've over-reacted, we'll never know. That's a good thing. If we under-react, we are sentencing people to death. But they're mostly Boomers, so it's a net gain.
You need to dissuade yourself of the absurd notion that someone else's opinions are not facts. Their opinion is their opinion, that is a fact, and is very likely based on some factual premise. And if you do not accept the facts as presented to you, don't ask for "sources," go out and find where those facts come from, and then find the rebuttals. You're supposedly promoting discussion, here, but it's looking more like a one-sided screed.
Except you don't even know to call it by its correct name, something as basic as it gets, so it's quite obvious how deep is the level of your ignorance. Your racism is clearly more important to you than the facts.
It's very simple. The virus/disease has a name. Calling it 'Wuhan' or 'China' or 'Asian' is racist, and speaks to the person's ignorance and willingness to spread misinformation.
Moose, so the "Hong Kong Flu" and the "Spanish Flu" are racist, because the virus first appeared in those places. It's the virus that's obviously racist.
And John, is it a fact that I hold an opinion? QED.
Well, the Chinese are now claiming it is a US military bio-weapon attack on their country, so.... And Trump has just said we're not playing that game with them, just trying to fix the problem. That's two facts. Look 'em up if you don't believe me.
'Moose, so the "Hong Kong Flu" and the "Spanish Flu" are racist, because the virus first appeared in those places.'
Yes. There are non-racist ways to refer to those pandemics.
"It's the virus that's obviously racist."
How so?
"But Jerry has a point... It did originate in Wuhan China..."
His point was to use a racist name for the disease. I get that you/he don't care about government and international organizations giving these things designations, but it doesn't make it any less racist to insist on calling it the Wuhan virus when more people outside China have now been infected with it.
It has an official name, speaking of facts. It causes zero grief to use it.
"a person who shows or feels discrimination or prejudice against people of other races, or who believes that a particular race is superior to another."
I will never understand why you label so many things you disapprove of as racist.
And I do not think anyone is arguing that point. Do you?
Of course we could put on rose colored glasses, and hope that the transmissability and health impact / lethality will be low... But if we are wrong and we let the genie completely out of the box...
Are you ready to bury a bunch of your peers?
I am assuming the reason the professionals are so angry regarding the Trump administration's botching the testing so badly is because they are starving for MORE DATA.
The virus has infected more people outside of Wuhan and China than inside. We should be more intelligent than our ancestors, but it's hard to account for willful ignorance and blatant xenophobia and racism.
Interesting that Republicans/Fox News/Drumpf et al/whatever the hell John thinks he is are looking to place blame while everyone else is looking to make progress against this disease.
I accidentally saw Fox News for about 5-10 minutes yesterday...a LOT of whining that people are calling out the president for placing blame and using a xenophobic (at best) term.
I watched MSNBC for three hours last night, and I only heard it discussed once, because they were too busy talking to scientists.
"The Allies of World War I came to call it the Spanish flu, primarily because the pandemic received greater press attention after it moved from France to Spain in November 1918. Spain was not involved in the war and had not imposed wartime censorship."
Recent news-- unsourced-- is that Chinese new infections are now being found only in foreigners entering China. Chinese transmission has essentially stopped. Theory is that the susceptible have already had it and there is nobody left to pass it to. Standard infectious disease curve.
"In mid-January, Chinese authorities introduced unprecedented measures to contain the virus, stopping movement in and out of Wuhan, the centre of the epidemic, and 15 other cities in Hubei province — home to more than 60 million people. Flights and trains were suspended, and roads were blocked.
Soon after, people in many Chinese cities were told to stay home and venture out only to get food or medical help. Some 760 million people, roughly half the country’s population, were confined to their homes, according to the New York Times.
It’s now two months since the lockdowns began — some of which are still in place — and the number of new cases there is around a couple dozen per day, down from thousands per day at the peak. “These extreme limitations on population movement have been quite successful,” says Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease scientist at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis."
So far just this year, flu has killed 10,000 in the US. The Wuhan virus 362. So which has the whole country panicked? Answer: the media darling COVID. Why? to blame it on Trump.
ReplyDeleteYeah...
ReplyDeleteThat is why China locked it's people down...
Why Europe is in lock down...
Because it is all a big hoax to get Trump...
Even Trump has finally understood the potential severity of this natural disaster after denying it and wasting 2 months...
Some facts again.
- We do not know how many Americans have it because of the failed testing roll out.
- It does kill about 10 times the number of people as the flu. (especially people over 60)
- It is highly contagious.
- We will not have a vaccine for a year...
One more note:
ReplyDeleteChina is a near Dictatorship who made everyone stay home.
That is how they stopped it...
Without that power I wonder how many would have died?
Here is an interesting disturbing piece regarding COVID in Italy
Italy vs USA
ReplyDeleteMost of Trump's COVID Wounds are Self Inflicted
Especially when he as President put out that wonderful sound bite about not being responsible for failures in the National governments response.
ReplyDeleteI think we will see that a lot during the election.
It would be like the head of Wells Fargo or Boeing saying they were not responsible...
ReplyDeleteAs we test more people the fatality rate will drop. Already some 60% of the infected have survived it, and in a couple weeks that number will climb faster, I suspect, than the fatality rate.
ReplyDeleteThe extreme measures being taken here will rapidly slow the infection rate, so if you're not infected now you won't be. So in two weeks the whole panic will be over. How long the media-driven hype and panic will last after that, we don't know.
"highly contagious" Trump had contact with a half-dozen of the infected, and he's negative.
Figures I have seen say the "worst" cruise ship had about 10% testing positive and about 1% dying from it. Meanwhile, the flu kills 10,000 Americans and nobody is rushing to buy toilet paper to avoid THAT.
Actually ~97% of the infected have survived.
ReplyDeleteWe can hope it will be over in 2 weeks, but it will just be that.
He apparently got lucky.
See the link for factual details...
Flu Data
ReplyDeleteSo the last confirmed flu numbers are 2016/17.
ReplyDelete21 million sick and 38,000 dead. (0.18%)
Now let's think about the death toll in the USA if 21 million people get COVID 19... I mean since ZERO people are immunized...
That would give us about 210,000 dead @ 1%...
On the upside they would mostly be old white conservatives... :-)
Where do you get your strange numbers again?
ReplyDeleteSome more data...
ReplyDelete"Sunday's 368 new deaths brought the country's death toll to 1,441, with 24,747 confirmed cases of COVID-19."
That is a really scary lethality... 5.8%
I hope there are a LOT of people who had COVID without symptoms.
And here is Koreas numbers. It is better but still worse than the flu...
ReplyDeletegoogle "people in the us who died from flu this year"
ReplyDeleteBy any stretch, the panic over the Wuhan virus is vastly out of proportion to what we have seen about the flu.
Let's think about this...
ReplyDeleteAbout 8,000,000,000 people on this Earth...
A virus is loose that kills 1% of the people who get it...
We have no vaccine to stop the spread...
We do not no if it will slow with the coming of spring...
And you think this is over reaction?
Sometimes your foolishness still astounds me.
Let's say that we did nothing and only 10% of the humans got the virus.
That would be 800,000,000 ill and 8,000,000 dead at 1%.
Still think we can do too much?
And for the flu we produce and inject multi BILLIONS of doses per year... :-)
ReplyDeleteMaybe we should stop going to all that work also and let weak and old folks die.
And that vaccine is 60-70% effective against KNOWN strains of the flu bug. So, if the Wuhan virus turns out to be as virulent as the flu and the same number of people get it (both unlikely), then roughly three times as many will die. In the US that would be 30,000 this year. So far we have what, 60? 0.2%? And for that we will curb all essential freedoms and liberties, and cower in our homes clutching our 24-packs of toilet paper? Sorry, but I refuse to panic about things I am TOLD to panic about.
ReplyDeleteJerry,
ReplyDeletePlease feel free to ignore the warnings and put yourself and other older people at risk...
Also, I am pretty sure know one has told you to panic...
All I have been told is to:
- wash my hands with soap and water
- have enough supplies on hand for ~2 weeks
- avoid gatherings
And please remember that it is Trump's administration "controlling" you...
Now again. What are your sources regarding:
- transmissible
- long term health impacts
- lethal
Here is the CDC Info
ReplyDeleteTotal cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47
Lethality given best info known at this time... 2.5%
May drop if more cases are identified
Flu 0.1%
FYI. My daughter and I are headed to Lutsen for a couple of days.
ReplyDeleteWe were going to Breckenridge until they closed the resorts...
But I will try to avoid groups of people...
COVID US MAP
enjoy. I find it difficult to enjoy when all of my usual activities, and many that are not my usual, are being essentially prohibited either by government or by private entities succumbing to what seems like a disproportionate panic reaction. With all we have done to contain the flu, we've still lost 10,000 Americans so far this year, and nobody blinks. Yet we're seeing extraordinary measures--"cancel everything"-- taken because of 0.6% as many deaths, most of them in one poorly managed nursing home in WA.
ReplyDeleteAnd no one has yet made a sensible explanation how 24 rolls of TP protects you from a virus. Sure sounds like panic to me.
My prediction: If these extreme measures hold over the next two weeks-- the combined time of incubation and recovery-- then all those who are infected now will be over it by then, with very minimal new infections. And the weather will get warmer, and the beneficent dictators can take the credit for the Global Warming.
"So, if the Wuhan virus turns out..."
ReplyDeleteWhy should we listen to some schmuck spouting racist nonsense?
You're a danger to society.
Moose
"If these extreme measures hold over the next two weeks-- the combined time of incubation and recovery-- then all those who are infected now will be over it by then, with very minimal new infections."
ReplyDeleteYes. If we've over-reacted, we'll never know. That's a good thing.
If we under-react, we are sentencing people to death. But they're mostly Boomers, so it's a net gain.
Moose
Jerry,
ReplyDeleteAs usual... Just a lot of opinions with no sources to back them up...
It must kill you that Trump disagrees with you now and is part of your latest conspiracy
Death toll increases
ReplyDeleteAnd even FOX News is apparently falling in line after weeks of denying reality
ReplyDeleteYou need to dissuade yourself of the absurd notion that someone else's opinions are not facts. Their opinion is their opinion, that is a fact, and is very likely based on some factual premise. And if you do not accept the facts as presented to you, don't ask for "sources," go out and find where those facts come from, and then find the rebuttals. You're supposedly promoting discussion, here, but it's looking more like a one-sided screed.
ReplyDeleteExcept you don't even know to call it by its correct name, something as basic as it gets, so it's quite obvious how deep is the level of your ignorance. Your racism is clearly more important to you than the facts.
ReplyDeleteMoose
Jerry,
ReplyDeleteI have presented many sources that contained facts...
You just make things up and are surprised when we disagree...
By the way, here are some relevant definitions.
Opinion: "a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge."
Fact: "a thing that is known or proved to be true"
Moose,
ReplyDeleteI'll bite... How did you jump to racism?
It's very simple. The virus/disease has a name. Calling it 'Wuhan' or 'China' or 'Asian' is racist, and speaks to the person's ignorance and willingness to spread misinformation.
ReplyDeleteMoose
Moose, so the "Hong Kong Flu" and the "Spanish Flu" are racist, because the virus first appeared in those places. It's the virus that's obviously racist.
ReplyDeleteAnd John, is it a fact that I hold an opinion? QED.
It is a Fact that you have a lot of Opinions...
ReplyDeleteIt is a Fact that you provide almost NO evidence that supports your Opinions. :-)
It is a Fact that we therefore discount your Opinions. :-(
You are just our beloved crazy Uncle Jerry... :-)
Moose,
ReplyDeleteI agree that calling it COVID19 is more accurate...
But Jerry has a point... It did originate in Wuhan China...
The problem will be if Trump and FOX try to demonize them for it...
And cause even more bad will and animosity...
Well, the Chinese are now claiming it is a US military bio-weapon attack on their country, so.... And Trump has just said we're not playing that game with them, just trying to fix the problem. That's two facts. Look 'em up if you don't believe me.
ReplyDelete'Moose, so the "Hong Kong Flu" and the "Spanish Flu" are racist, because the virus first appeared in those places.'
ReplyDeleteYes. There are non-racist ways to refer to those pandemics.
"It's the virus that's obviously racist."
How so?
"But Jerry has a point... It did originate in Wuhan China..."
His point was to use a racist name for the disease. I get that you/he don't care about government and international organizations giving these things designations, but it doesn't make it any less racist to insist on calling it the Wuhan virus when more people outside China have now been infected with it.
It has an official name, speaking of facts. It causes zero grief to use it.
Moose
Moose,
ReplyDeleteHere is the definition of racist...
"a person who shows or feels discrimination or prejudice against people of other races, or who believes that a particular race is superior to another."
I will never understand why you label so many things you disapprove of as racist.
Jerry,
ReplyDeleteApparently some minority on all sides are guilty of politicizing this mess. Likely conspiracy minded folks like yourself.
And the rhetoric escalates on both sides...
ReplyDeleteThis blog continues to offer an interesting corollary to Godwin's law...
ReplyDeleteAt the dual risk of actually being on topic and offering "sources,"...
ReplyDeleteactual stats
Skiing now. I'll try to see what "Hot Air" is basing their opinions on.
ReplyDeleteThe first link just took me to another opinion piece...
Well the source for the HOT Air article is arguing that we need more data...
ReplyDeleteAnd I do not think anyone is arguing that point. Do you?
Of course we could put on rose colored glasses, and hope that the transmissability and health impact / lethality will be low... But if we are wrong and we let the genie completely out of the box...
Are you ready to bury a bunch of your peers?
I am assuming the reason the professionals are so angry regarding the Trump administration's botching the testing so badly is because they are starving for MORE DATA.
So without our own data we are reliant on data from Italy and South Korea.
That information is fascinating since it reaffirms that we are truly going through all this trouble to save the elderly and infirm...
Maybe we should let it just run it's course and save ourselves at lot of Social Security, Social Security Disability and Medicare expense... :-)
"I will never understand why you label so many things you disapprove of as racist."
ReplyDeleteFine. Xenophobic. That's not any less insidious.
Language Matters
Moose
But sometimes a virus name is just a virus name...
ReplyDeleteAs Jerry said...
"interesting corollary to Godwin's law..."
Yes...and the name is Coronavirus or COVID-19.
ReplyDeleteThe virus has infected more people outside of Wuhan and China than inside. We should be more intelligent than our ancestors, but it's hard to account for willful ignorance and blatant xenophobia and racism.
Moose
On the other hand, it was a failure by the Chinese to stop it early that allowed it to spread around the world.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure their cover ups should be forgotten either...
I think your jumping to labels like these is by far more judgmental and full of hate. It is kind of sad. :-(
Just as a point of history, the "Spanish Flu" did not originate in Spain.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Republicans/Fox News/Drumpf et al/whatever the hell John thinks he is are looking to place blame while everyone else is looking to make progress against this disease.
ReplyDeleteI accidentally saw Fox News for about 5-10 minutes yesterday...a LOT of whining that people are calling out the president for placing blame and using a xenophobic (at best) term.
I watched MSNBC for three hours last night, and I only heard it discussed once, because they were too busy talking to scientists.
Moose
Excellent learning opportunity... :-) Thanks.
ReplyDelete"The Allies of World War I came to call it the Spanish flu, primarily because the pandemic received greater press attention after it moved from France to Spain in November 1918. Spain was not involved in the war and had not imposed wartime censorship."
Recent news-- unsourced-- is that Chinese new infections are now being found only in foreigners entering China. Chinese transmission has essentially stopped. Theory is that the susceptible have already had it and there is nobody left to pass it to. Standard infectious disease curve.
ReplyDeleteJerry,
ReplyDeleteThey are a near Dictatorship who locked everyone in their homes.
Of course it broke the transmission cycle.
"In mid-January, Chinese authorities introduced unprecedented measures to contain the virus, stopping movement in and out of Wuhan, the centre of the epidemic, and 15 other cities in Hubei province — home to more than 60 million people. Flights and trains were suspended, and roads were blocked.
Soon after, people in many Chinese cities were told to stay home and venture out only to get food or medical help. Some 760 million people, roughly half the country’s population, were confined to their homes, according to the New York Times.
It’s now two months since the lockdowns began — some of which are still in place — and the number of new cases there is around a couple dozen per day, down from thousands per day at the peak. “These extreme limitations on population movement have been quite successful,” says Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease scientist at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis."
The same things you are complaining about in the USA...
ReplyDeleteAnd since young adults are often as foolish as you :-), and the USA does not have the same stomach for control... Our curve will not look the same.
Moose,
ReplyDeleteFOX News seems relatively normal right now.
Of course their opinion entertainers are as stupid as usual. :-(
FOX News may seem normal now, after weeks/months of lying to the public and misleading them on the dangers of this outbreak.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, nearly every forecast reported by reputable media outlets has verified as accurate.
Moose