Sunday, July 26, 2020

COVID Progression Diagram

Here is a new image I made for me to better communicate what should happen normally.

  1. "People get the COVID virus" and show no symptoms and do not get tested. This is an unknown number.
  2. People get tested for whatever reason and find that they have COVID.
  3. About a week or 2 after getting the virus, some percentage end up in the hospital.
  4. About 4 weeks later some percentage end up in the morgue.
  5. Since a person can spread the virus to more than one person, COVID grows at a geometric rate. (ie. 1, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, etc) So the most important thing we can do is interrupt the spread early.

The question is how to best do this? COVID does not have feet, it needs people to travel. 🙂

Here is what the RED portion looks like so far...  Those are deaths each day.

And something on a funnier note.

10 comments:

  1. jerrye92002July 26, 2020 at 10:45 AM

    Maybe you want to graph the official CDC data of weekly US deaths from this table. It clearly shows deaths down 90% from the peak.
    CDC chart
    NOW we need those mask mandates. :-^

    ReplyDelete
  2. JohnJuly 26, 2020 at 11:21 AM

    Are you accounting for the delay?

    "NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Counts of deaths occurring before or after the reporting period are not included in the table. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

    *Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."

    ReplyDelete
  3. JohnJuly 26, 2020 at 11:39 AM

    I added a more up to date graph to the post.

    To me it looks like we went from:

    ~2000 deaths per day to

    ~600 deaths per day to

    ~1,000 deaths per day and climbing

    I wonder what the peak will be this time?

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousJuly 27, 2020 at 9:29 AM

    "It clearly shows deaths down 90%..."

    Now you're just flat out lying...not that that's unusual for a Trumper.

    Moose

    ReplyDelete
  5. JohnJuly 27, 2020 at 10:21 AM

    I am not if he was lying or incorrectly informed.

    CDC provisional death data does support his incorrect statement

    However as I noted that data is far from accurate / complete.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousJuly 27, 2020 at 1:21 PM

    The current 7-day average is 812. The peak 7-day average so far has been 2232.

    Moose

    ReplyDelete
  7. JohnJuly 27, 2020 at 1:28 PM

    Using which data source?

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousJuly 27, 2020 at 2:04 PM

    The New York Times.

    "Note: Data are based on reports by states and counties at the time of publication. Local governments may revise reported numbers as they get new information. Some deaths may be reported by officials in two different jurisdictions. When possible, deaths have been reported here in the jurisdiction where the death occurred."

    I don't think we can now count on the CDC numbers to be accurate or up-to-date.

    Moose

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousJuly 27, 2020 at 2:06 PM

    If you want to delve deeper...

    NYT Raw Data

    Moose

    ReplyDelete
  10. JohnJuly 27, 2020 at 4:10 PM

    Your numbers seem to match mine...

    Both graphs are in the post now.

    ReplyDelete