Now the Trump True Believers keep telling me that he has accomplished SO MUCH and that things are MUCH BETTER / DIFFERENT than when Obama was President. Here are some graphs that define reality. Most are from the 2019 CBO Report
The biggest things I note here is that spending keeps going up, however revenues dropped under Trump due to the tax cut. Therefore the yearly deficit that was shrinking under Obama started to grow again under Trump. Our economy is being stimulated by "borrowed money" and the National Debt is growing at a faster rate under Trump.
Also, mandatory expenditures like Social Security, Medicare, etc are still a HUGE problem. The recipients are receiving more benefits than they paid for.
For all of Trump's talk of big GDP changes... I don't see it. The government is spending more, borrowing more and people have more money due to lower taxes. They are borrowing to stimulate a booming economy. Unfortunately that additional debt will be a problem for our kids to deal with.
And as for the border crisis... Things look about the same...
And as for unemployment, I see no big change when Trump entered the picture... Do you?
The biggest things I note here is that spending keeps going up, however revenues dropped under Trump due to the tax cut. Therefore the yearly deficit that was shrinking under Obama started to grow again under Trump. Our economy is being stimulated by "borrowed money" and the National Debt is growing at a faster rate under Trump.
Also, mandatory expenditures like Social Security, Medicare, etc are still a HUGE problem. The recipients are receiving more benefits than they paid for.
And as for unemployment, I see no big change when Trump entered the picture... Do you?
32 comments:
You do realize that there is a simple solution to the Social Security problem, and that the obstacle is Democrats?
And the obstacle to the immigration problem getting solved is Democrats?
And that the spending problem has historically been.... Democrats? Trump's budget was DOA. Hard to blame him on that one.
Please remember that Trump:
- promised not to touch social security or medicare
- turned down an immigration compromise that would have gotten him many billions for his beloved wall
- signed each spending bill and encouraged big increases in military spending
The GOP had 2 years to cut spending and it simply did not happen.
Remember this excellent piece
A reminder that politicians from both parties:
- love to spend more on their voters
- love to collect less from their voters
This is how they stay popular and get re-elected.
Modern citizen who vote apparently do not care about fiscal responsibility as much as they care about a good deal for themselves. Even if it creates a substantial cost to their children's future freedom and flexibility.
For the Liberals out there: do the charts indicate that Trump has broken something during his time in office?
Trump knows that Social Security reform that keeps the program perpetually solvent and actually reduces the deficit, without cutting promised benefits, doesn't stand a chance of passage against shrieking Democrat opposition.
Let me repeat. He of his own volition promised to not touch it.
So? Do you know why? Because he knows the Democrats would mount Armageddon to prevent saving the program.
Maybe in the second term. The math would be less favorable, but it would still work.
Yes. I know why...
Trump wanted to get elected, therefore he promised whatever would get him votes.
His having no qualms about lying make him well suited to doing that.
Here is some detail regarding Trump's plan now a days.
So, apparently if Trump recognizes reality he is a fool, a liar, and a terrible person? Would you prefer the fantasy that these programs are sound, efficient and sustainable? How about a Social Security reform that keeps its promises, doesn't raise taxes and actually lowers the deficit?
"For the Liberals out there: do the charts indicate that Trump has broken something during his time in office?"
Economically, he hasn't "broken" anything per se. However, your graphs show that the tax cuts have failed to create any sort of inflection point in the economy where we see a sudden burst of growth. This lack of accomplishment has come at a significant cost, namely, hundreds of billions annually tacked on to the deficit. While the economy is growing, that's not really a major problem. But it will be come the next recession, because it takes away some of the natural headroom we should be creating while times are good.
Despite the old "who gets the blame or credit for the economy" debate, I am surprised that anybody is surprised to see no "inflection point." It takes a while to turn the ship of state, and only then slowly. That Trump has managed to continue in the right direction against stiff headwinds is good enough.
Technically there was an inflection point like there was in 2001...
We should have been incurring a slight recession.
Unfortunately we are not, last time it lead to bigger recession in the future...
(like it did in 2008)
People forgot that markets go up and down. God help the foolish in about 2024...
Please remember that we are thriving on borrowed money... Never a good idea.
"It takes a while to turn the ship of state, and only then slowly. That Trump has managed to continue in the right direction against stiff headwinds is good enough."
That's not what was promised.
"We should have been incurring a slight recession."
None of the traditional indicators of a recession were signalling warnings at the end of the Obama Administration. So, no, I don't agree with that statement.
Modern history has a recession occurring every 8 -10 years
Deny this at your own peril.
The 2001 recession should have been bigger, but we borrowed our way out of it like we did in 2018.
So now a bunch of greedy stupid people are borrowing and spending like home and stock prices only go up.
G2A Recession
G2A Recession Revisited
Just curious... Did you see the 2008 recession coming in 2007?
If you did you are one of the few. :-)
"Modern history has a recession occurring every 8 -10 years"
Sure. But they typically don't happen out of the blue.
"Did you see the 2008 recession coming in 2007?"
There were reasons to think a recession was coming, but no, I didn't see the magnitude of what was coming. For instance, inverted yield curves on bonds are a frequent indicator of an upcoming recession, and that happened in 2000, late 2005, 2006, and 2007. It also happened for the first time since then in December 2018 and March 2019.
Inverted Yield Curve
And you don't give the big tax cut and additional spending credit for our booming economy?
The economy isn't booming. It's doing fine, just as it was under Obama, but it's not great by historical standards.
Again you are forgetting that we should be in a recession…
Or do you believe that $1 Trillion a year of unnecessary tax cuts and excessive spending has no real world consequence on GDP?
"Again you are forgetting that we should be in a recession…"
No, I'm disagreeing with your assertion that we should be in a recession.
What is your rationale that the normal cyclical recession would not have happened without consumers having more cash and the government spending more?
Some More History
"What is your rationale that the normal cyclical recession would not have happened without consumers having more cash and the government spending more?"
Because none of the traditional indicators that point to a recession were pointing that way at any point in 2017. The economy is not sentient and it doesn't automatically put itself into a recession after 'x' amount of time. The conditions have to be right.
Is it taking longer than normal to get to that point? Yep. But that in part, I would argue, is because of the relative slowness of the current recovery.
Is a recession going to happen? Yep. Probably in the next two years, I'm guessing, because the indicators are starting to turn. Did the tax cut hold it off somewhat? Impossible to say with any certainty. Whether it did or not, what it certainly will impact is our ability to respond to the next recession.
Food for Thought
And more good news
EPI Analysis
This is interesting
My guess is that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
There is no doubt that the GOP actions have had an impact.
The question is how much?
Post a Comment