Friday, March 27, 2020

The USA is #1 for COVID19

and Trump Touts Success while attacking governors. 

And the Far Right and Libertarians attack Dr Fauci.

How South Korea Stopped COVID19

Where as China Locked Down Hubei Province for 2 Months

So as usual, we have a big choice. 

  • Go back to life as usual and let COVID19 spread aggressively? Which will lead to many more deaths.
  • Do something different?  And bend the curve...

Touch graphic to zoom

37 comments:

jerrye92002 said...

chuckle... Pretty easy to stop the virus from spreading if all you do is stop testing. The only benefit to continuing to test aggressively is that the fatality rate will keep falling.

John said...

Who do you think stopped testing?

I hope it does start dropping soon...

Coronavirus Cases: 86,548
Deaths: 1,321
Recovered: 1,889

Right now we are above 1.54%...

John said...

Are you 80 yet?

What is already known about this topic?

Early data from China suggest that a majority of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths have occurred among adults aged ≥60 years and among persons with serious underlying health conditions.

What is added by this report?

This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.

What are the implications for public health practice?

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing, to help slow the spread of COVID-19 and protect older adults from severe illness.

John said...

As I keep saying, on the upside this could save us a LOT on Medicare and SS...

jerrye92002 said...

All I am suggesting is that data is all over the place, of questionable reliability, veracity and value. What seems clear is that this crisis is vastly overblown compared to similar virii like the seasonal flu. For example, it is estimated that 80% of us already have a natural immunity (more unconfirmed data), but the best evidence, from the cruise ship, says mortality is lower than estimated, even under the most extreme circumstances.

Another example: It seems that Italy is classifying all deaths where the patient tests positive for CV, as a death caused by CV. I still think we're overreacting.

Laurie said...

Funny video of Trump impersonation:

New Jersey comedian goes viral with 'Donald Trump vs God on Easter PPV'

John said...

Jerry,
Well remember my hypothetical numbers...

320 milllion citizens
- For each 10% who get it (32 million citizens)
- ~1% will die... 320,000 funerals...

- If 30% get it... 960,000 funerals...

Should we go back to life as normal and sacrifice these folks?

Laurie,
Thanks for the laugh, he was very good and accurate.

I really can not watch Trump speak, the unjustified bragging, blaming others, misleading statements, attacking others, etc drives me crazy.

Laurie said...

I can't watch Trump either.

We were talking about Trump in my family. Should various groups create attack ads about how badly he has been handling this crisis. With a normal president I would say no. Support the president. He/ she is doing the best they can and everyone makes mistakes or has limits to what they accomplish.

But Trump is uniquely bad and incompetent. It is very easy to put together a little montage of all the stupid things he has said/ done over the past month. I think voters should be shown how incompetent he is. Especially when his incompetence is leading to many more deaths.

John said...

Who knows people are thinking?

His popularity is trending upward.

Apparently citizens don't watch the details too close and belief him he claims praise and blames others. :-(

Laurie said...

that his approval rating is going up is a good reason to create and run attack ads. voters should understand how badly he has been handling this crisis. He should definitely not be reelected.

John said...

It is pretty tough have wise citizens when 40% of then are scared to fact check trump.

And this is a classic...

"You know," he added from the White House, "we don't like to see the complaints.”"

Imagine if a school board member, mayor, etc said that to American citizens...

Maybe Trump does fit right in with the government bureaucrats...

jerrye92002 said...

Trump approval for handling the crisis keeps going UP, and media approval for how they report it keeps going DOWN. What do so many of us see that y'all do not?

John said...

Jerry,
I would not call this a win by any means. I


"A Reuters/Ipsos online survey of more than 4,000 Americans found 49% approve of Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis, while 44% disapproved.

Those results largely fell along party lines. Republicans approved of the president's response 83%-13%, while Democrats disapproved 71%-24%. Independents were split, 43%-43%."

"An Economist/YouGov poll also found that 49% approve of Trump's management of the outbreak with 44% saying they disapprove. And, as with the Reuters poll, the opinions largely fell along party lines.

Eighty-nine percent of registered Republicans said they approved of Trump's response, while only 7% said they disapproved. Among Democrats, 74% said they disapproved, while 21% approved. Independents were divided: 42% approved and 45% disapproved. "

John said...

Then again Trump does tend to celebrate when his approval approached 50%. :-)

He is pretty much in the same position as the media... :-( :-)

John said...

Apparently Tribe Liberal and Trump True Believers are sticking with their partisan positions rather that actually analyzing the data and forming their own opinons.

"Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rate their state government's response to the coronavirus as highly as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents do. Majorities of both groups also approve of the job that hospitals, government health agencies and Congress are doing, although Republicans' approval is higher than Democrats' in each case.

By contrast, nearly all Republicans (93%), compared with 29% of Democrats, approve of Trump's performance, although Democrats' approval on this measure well exceeds their overall 13% rating for Trump in the same poll.

In addition to partisanship, the lower ratings among Democrats also appear to be a function of higher levels of worry among this group.

Only on the news media's handling of the coronavirus are Democrats more approving than Republicans -- 61% vs. 25%, respectively. Gallup has consistently found that Democrats have more confidence than Republicans in mass media."

John said...

Jerry,

Do you believe that this snuck up on us or that Trump always new it was a pandemic?

Or that the US had done more tests than South Korea, Cuomo established death panels, WHO COVID test was a bad test, health insurance agreed to waive co-payments, etc, etc, etc?

Why do you keep believing this chronic liar?

John said...

As always, please tell me where Politifact is wrong and the President is correct...

I will dedicate a whole post to reviewing the claim...

John said...

Oops. Bad link above.


"You know," he added from the White House, "we don't like to see the complaints.”

jerrye92002 said...

"Apparently Tribe Liberal and Trump True Believers are sticking with their partisan positions rather that actually analyzing the data and forming their own opinons."
and
"Only on the news media's handling of the coronavirus are Democrats more approving than Republicans -- 61% vs. 25%, respectively. Gallup has consistently found that Democrats have more confidence than Republicans in mass media."

Those two statements pretty well sum up the situation. "How Trump is doing" is an OPINION highly influenced by your perspective and the few facts-- probably selected via confirmation bias-- that one actually has. "Analyzing the data," while highly desirable, is not something we mere mortals are even capable of in a situation this complex. We rely on others to do that, and that becomes one more "fact" that supports (or not) our original opinion.

Now, interestingly, while both sides handle [scant] information the same way, the SOURCE of information is different. Democrats trust the major media and are thus greatly worried about this. Republicans believe Trump and conservative/"objective" news and think this is over-hyped. And you, John, just want to bash the President, so one problem is as good as another.

John said...

Jerry,
Please note that most of my sources are or lead back to Johns Hopkins and the CDC. Both very reputable organizations.

And the COVID 19 timeline is pretty factual, unless you want to correct it in someway?

As for Trump, I just think he is a terrible leader based on the criteria in How to Win Friends and Influence People.

He never acknowledges his errors, or shows humility. In fact he denies them or lies about them and/or tries to blame someone else. That is the opposite of being a Leader from my perspective, but maybe you like leaders who do not accept responsibility?

By the way, I noticed that you are unwilling to discuss Trump's lies that I linked to.

John said...

Maybe if Trump worked more and talked less he would be more popular.

jerrye92002 said...

Oh, absolutely. If Trump quit defending himself and let the media tell endless lies uncorrected, he would be more popular with the Left. I don't think that is why he is popular on the Right, and one reason he IS popular on the Right is because he annoys the #$%^ out of all the proper people.

I suppose, though, that maybe he could work 21 hours a day, rather than the 20 he does now.... And part of the job includes talking.

John said...

What lies are you talking about? Examples pleases?

Source please regarding Trump's work hours?

What is he doing?

John said...

Here is one source regarding Trump's daily routine.

And then there is Trump's extensive vacation trips

jerrye92002 said...

Your chart is highly misleading. Can you point to a consistent, credible set of facts that establish a) the ease of spreading the disease, b) the percent of people actually contracting the disease after contact, C) the number of those with the disease who are asymptomatic but can still spread it, D) the number who show mild symptoms and are never tested, E) those who are tested positive and eventually recover, and F) those who actually die from the disease and not from some underlying co-morbidity condition.
You can't. That information is simply not available. And I should note that the UK "experts" have reduced their estimate of those who will contract the disease from 500,000 down to 20,000. Maybe our concern is over-hyped?

John said...

Even Trump seems to believe now

Not sure why you are so resistant to the expert analysis?

John said...

As for a lack of data, please ask Trump how his administration dropped the ball so terribly in January?

He has been the President for 3 years, he owns the lack of supplies, test delays, closure of pandemic office, etc...

Test Delays

John said...

The 6 weeks Trump Squandered

jerrye92002 said...

Dr. Birx has no crystal ball and very scant facts to back up her opinion. Remember the "experts" in the UK dropped their projection by 96%, and another expert in the US has just said it is likely we will have only 80,000 dead, a bit more than a bad flu season. I'm just saying the reaction seems way out of proportion, and the "cure" (aka panic) seems much worse than the disease. Even Italy isn't seeing the kind of numbers predicted by the doomsayers.

John said...

I think you should fact check your sources

British Lockdown working?

More comments from researcher

John said...

Some more excellent resources regarding the topic.

So if Britain's population is 66 million and they are looking at 20,000 dead...

The USA at 320 million is looking at 96,700 +/- 10,000... I mean they are only Grandpa and Grandma... :-)

John said...

Now we are only going to stay at that low 96,700 dead human number by staying home... As we have been doing.

And you wanted to just ignore this little problem?

By the way, the typical flu deaths seem to average about ~30,000 per year.

Anonymous said...

Republicans are always so afraid of over-reacting, whether it be AGCC or COVID-19, that they would rather doom people to death than be wrong.

The problem is, we won't really know if we over-reacted. But we would certainly know if we under-reacted. Some parts of our country are reacting less urgently. It'll be interesting to see what happens and compare to the areas of the country heeding the warnings of the experts.

Moose

jerrye92002 said...

and a bad flu season? Remember, we have a vaccine for the flu, and it's still killing far more people than CV? If these Democrat governors would rid themselves of their TDS and let hydroxychloroquine be used for treatment of severe cases, deaths could be substantially fewer.

jerrye92002 said...

Expert== former drip under pressure.

John said...

Jerry,
As usual, so many opinions, and no facts / data.

Also, when did governors control treatment options?

And do they have governors in Italy and Spain?

As always, source please.

John said...

Apparently it was the FDA who just approved its use.

Possible treatment side effects?