About 3 to 4 weeks.... So I searched for a simple graph that showed this relationship after one of my FB Friends made light of Gov Walz's mask order when deaths are so low currently. ("What is he trying to reduce it from 3 to 2 per day?" hahaha)
So as is often the case, I thought it provide an excellent teaching moment.
And if you did not hear the BAD news, we have been over 700 new cases per day this week... You may be done with COVID, but it certainly is NOT done with us... :-(
Texas Data
So as is often the case, I thought it provide an excellent teaching moment.
Actually if deaths are increasing you are taking actions about 5 or 6 weeks too late. 🙁 The graphic above and in my post below shows why they are taking action NOW and not waiting...
Going from a "just reopening" positive test count of ~350/ day to ~550/day in a ~3 week period is NOT good.
Waiting for deaths to start climbing is like waiting until you directional bore into a gas main... Things just blow up and you are screwed. 🙂
So we know that cases are starting to climb rapidly again. What course of action would you recommend?Of course you know that I never did get a better suggestion... But I did decide to use the Texas Health data to put this together. (touch to zoom)
And if you did not hear the BAD news, we have been over 700 new cases per day this week... You may be done with COVID, but it certainly is NOT done with us... :-(
Texas Data
Minnesota Data
Here is a new image I made for me to better communicate what should happen normally.
- "People get the COVID virus" and show no symptoms and do not get tested. This is an unknown number.
- People get tested for whatever reason and find that they have COVID.
- About a week or 2 after getting the virus, some percentage end up in the hospital.
- About 4 weeks later some percentage end up in the morgue.
- Since a person can spread the virus to more than one person, COVID grows at a geometric rate. (ie. 1, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, etc) So the most important thing we can do is interrupt the spread early.
The question is how to best do this? COVID does not have feet, it needs people to travel. 🙂
3 comments:
I am starting to think we will be starting school with distance learning
Highly likely if we don't get the "new case" count under control. :-(
FYI, I added some more comments and a new graphic.
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