Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Luck vs Effort

Now we discussed this topic before in G2A Are You a Self Made Person, G2A Why Are Poor People Poor and at other time, however this VOX piece gives us another opportunity.
 
VOX The radical moral implications of luck in human life
 
I agree with much of what it has to say.  I have tried to convince some people that luck was the major factor for their success in life...  And needless to say but many successful people DO NOT LIKE and CAN NOT ACCEPT that luck is why they are near the top of the heap.
 
Where as I think acknowledging my good fortune is critical to living by my G2A Principles.  I mean just think of how good I had it compared to many others:
  • I was born at Methodist Hospital in St Louis Park MN  USA.
  • I had 2 loving capable and sometimes nagging parents.
  • Though not perfect, my parents were good role models.
  • I lived for ~12 years in the cities and 6+ years on a farm.
  • I developed a solid work ethic on the farm.
  • College was not an option, and my family helped pay for it.
The other advantage I am still uncertain of is that I was born to 2 white parents. I do acknowledge based on years of discussion that it was a significant factor, however I want to remind people that it SHOULD NOT be an excuse for the high level of single parent and broken dysfunctional homes going forward. 


Please remember that I think my life should not be considered a life of privilege. I think it should be considered normal, and a life that we should expect / demand for almost every child in America.  (well except for the hospital and the farm... :-))


Now the questions are:
  • How do we stop Liberals for making excuses for poor Parent(s)?
  • How do we get Successful people to be more humble and willing to help others who were born /raised in much worse circumstances?

39 comments:

John said...

This especially interesting to me...

"Acknowledging luck is profoundly threatening to the lucky

I get why people bridle at this point. They want credit for their achievements and for their better qualities. As Varney said, it can be insulting to be told that one’s success is in large part a lucky roll of the dice.

Of course, people aren’t nearly as eager to take credit for their failures and flaws. Psychologists have shown that all humans are subject to “fundamental attribution error.” When we assess others, we tend to attribute successes to circumstance and failures to character — and when we assess our own lives, it is the opposite. Everyone’s relationship with luck is somewhat self-interested and opportunistic. "

Anonymous said...

I am a fairly successful person, and I attribute a fair amount of my success, and huge amount of it to sacrifices made by others. While I might feel I might be able to make the last 90 feet on my own, nothing is more certain in my life that I wasn't the one who hit the triple.

--Hiram

jerrye92002 said...

Perhaps if you said "opportunity" rather than luck, I might be more willing to agree with you. Because of the "accident" of your birth, you had opportunities that other "accidents" did not have-- parents who wanted you, imparted values to you, and then were able to find you a good education at public (or private) expense. If you were successful it was because you took advantage of your opportunities. And the fact you were born to white parents simply means that, statistically, you are less likely to have come from a poor single parent household with far more limited opportunities.

SO... rather than try to spread "luck" around we should be trying to offer equality of opportunity, and to me that starts with making certain our public education system is educating kids to their full potential, from where they are to where they can get, and then fixing our horrible welfare system so that fewer kids are denied the other opportunities they need to be more successful in life.

I'm not buying anybody a lottery ticket. If I am told that I am who I am by virtue of luck, then I must admit that everybody else cannot be helped, they are just "out of luck," and I will not do that.

John said...

Did you read the whole VOX piece?

Opportunity is a forward looking word... Most of what happens to people is in the past and not in their control... Therefore LUCK


Luck
a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity ·Luck was a big factor in the outcome.
b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual ·The loser muttered something about bad luck.


Opportunity
1 : a favorable juncture of circumstances ·the halt provided an opportunity for rest and refreshment
2 : a good chance for advancement or progress

John said...

And as noted in the pieces, the parent(s) is the main component...

As we all know.

John said...

Do you have a hard time accepting that your life could have been very different in a really BAD wayif you had been:

- born in a different country
- had different Parent(s)

John said...

And another stressing how critical the first 5 years are.

jerrye92002 said...

I think you are missing the point. You are born into a circumstance that offers you more or fewer opportunities, depending. A child born to a poor Malaysian beggar is probably not going to get a Harvard degree, much less graduate Cum Laude. While you had a greater opportunity, it still is not a matter of "luck" that you did get that vaunted degree. It is a matter of constraints on the opportunities put before you.

If you really want to do something about "unlucky kids" becoming "unlucky parents" then you have to acknowledge that you cannot buy "luck" for people, especially retroactively. What we CAN do is to arrange for them to have better opportunities, and the means to access them.

John said...

And yet science says the first five years matter most.

So how do we ensure that every baby, toddler and preschooler is well taken care of?

Especially with so many Republicans fighting sex education, birth control, parent education / accountability, food programs and early childhood education... Which the experts know are critical to turning this around.

And it sure does not help that both Liberals and Conservatives think that anyone who can have sex has a right to keep the child... :-(

John said...

After thinking about it more... We need to add one more word.

probability
1 : the quality or state of being probable

2 : something (such as an event or circumstance) that is probable

3 a (1) : the ratio of the number of outcomes in an exhaustive set of equally likely outcomes that produce a given event to the total number of possible outcomes (2) : the chance that a given event will occur

b : a branch of mathematics concerned with the study of probabilities

4 : a logical relation between statements such that evidence confirming one confirms the other to some degree

John said...

Jerry,
So are you at least able to say that you were lucky because you were:
- born to the right people in the right location
- were kept fed and well nurtured
- guided okay by your parent(s)
- attended okay schools with okay teachers

All of which increased the probability that you:
- would be given opportunities
- that you would succeed in the those opportunities?

Or does even this statement of the obvious threaten your ego and self confidence?

jerrye92002 said...

"So how do we ensure that every baby, toddler and preschooler is well taken care of?"

Are you going to include that child of the Malaysian beggar? Because if you are not, then luck is not the consideration. You cannot alter people's luck or "accident of birth." What you CAN do, if your government allows it, is to offer people opportunities to bear children in intact families, feed and clothe the child properly, teach them socially valuable values, and provide them a GOOD public education-- the "great equalizer" it was intended to be.

And if you want to add the word probability, they I ask you assess the probability that the "unlucky kids" in the Mpls school systems can do better than a 30% proficiency in math and reading, and consider if the current system denies them that opportunity. It's not all "luck" causing their failure.

jerrye92002 said...

As for me, I am what I am. I can be nought else. You can say I was lucky, if that makes you feel superior. I choose to try to give others opportunities, where I can, rather than buy them lottery tickets and hope they get lucky.

John said...

I'll pass on the Malaysian kids for now, we have enough unlucky kids in the USA.

Actually government could do much more to:
- prevent unintended pregnancies
- prevent unwanted births or promote adoption
- stop welfare mamas from having many children
- stop baby daddies from making many children
- providing parent(s) training
- provide early childhood education
- ensuring young children are cared for / stimulated
- holding social and education system accountable

Doing this would greatly increase the probability that all kids would succeed. Unfortunately many people including yourself resist. So the unlucky kids keep growing into incapable or neglectful parents(s).

John said...

Admitting to yourself that you were lucky is for your benefit, not mine.

It helps one with the principles of Humility and Gratitude

Gratitude
I am grateful and appreciative for what life has given me. I think magnanimously and act generously because abundance is the universal reality, therefore what I give to life returns to me. (ie family & friends, home location, financial security, great job, personal successes, health, hobbies, experiences, prestige, recognition, pleasure, joy)

Humility
I maintain an attitude of unpretentiousness and modesty, and realize that God in his own way and time will reward me with whatever I need. As long as I rid myself of pride and maintain an attitude of gentleness toward all life. (ie questioning, humble)

John said...

Remember the fundamental attribution error noted above...

"When we assess others, we tend to attribute successes to circumstance and failures to character — and when we assess our own lives, it is the opposite."

I prefer not to make that error, and I am happier for it.


I know I am smart and hard working... But I am not that smart or hard working... I am where I am in large heart because of factors that I had ZERO control over... I was very LUCKY !!! And I am very thankful for that.

jerrye92002 said...

Let's try another tack, here. We know that kids who get bad teachers in two successive years lose at least one of those years in academic achievement. So, if the probability of that occurrence is higher in one school than in another, is that luck, or failure to offer the opportunity equally? Surely teacher quality is something "we" control? Likewise, doesn't every parent control their child's welfare and upbringing?
If these things are things we individually or collectively control, they are NOT luck.

Likewise, to ascribe them to pure luck is to deny free will and free choice, the essence of personal and corporate responsibility. What you describe-- attribution to luck alone-- is exactly what ails, IMHO, too many poor folks today, the sense of hopelessness, of being unable to deal with the "misfortune" of being poor and having no choice in their kids' schooling, or in moving up economically.

John said...

We are talking about babies, toddlers and pre-schoolers here... They have no:

"free will and free choice"

They just have luck... Like you did...


What country you were born in.
Who your parent(s) were and are they capable of and dedicated to caring for you.
What your early friends were like.
If you lived in a house with lead paint on the walls or in the pipes.

And as the studies show, all of these things impact brain development. And all of these you want to keep society out of.

jerrye92002 said...

If you won the lottery, were you lucky? (Yes, depending on your subsequent choices, the smart money being the ones RUNNING the lottery.) If you win at poker, are you lucky or are you skilled? If you know your tensor mechanics for having studied it, are you lucky to solve that problem, or just enabled through the opportunity to study it? Luck is something over which no one, supposedly, has control, especially you. It is by nature undependable and useless as an explanation for success or failure.

One can be grateful to God, or family, or teachers, friends, spouses, whomever, but to cold luck? Never.

jerrye92002 said...

"They just have luck... Like you did.."

But their parents DO have free will, and react to the choices available to them. That is not luck, because somebody has control of those circumstances.

John said...

For your reference:

Statistics on Neglect and Abuse

Birth Rate vs Income

John said...

I am not concerned about the adults and neither are you... Otherwise you would be supportive of government funded education programs for adults.

You just want to stick with your "government education and care programs" are bad mantra. And that if government exited the poor would miraculously disappear delusion.

Which based on the history of the USA and most other countries, we know is incorrect.

John said...

Grateful to God

Maybe God has a purpose when he let's poor, incapable, neglectful and/or abusive adults have access to babies, toddlers, preschoolers, etc ???

And we as a society should do nothing to thwart their purpose... Is that what you are saying?

Does God like you more than those kids?

Should they curse God?

jerrye92002 said...

"I am not concerned about the adults and neither are you..."

You may be correct about you. You are wrong about me. Since the adults control the upbringing of the child (to the degree "we," through government, allow them such choices), we need to be offering them better choices, INCLUDING the education their children receive.

"And that if government exited the poor would miraculously disappear delusion. Which based on the history of the USA and most other countries, we know is incorrect."

I know no such thing. I continue to contend that "you get what you pay for," and if you pay for poverty, you get more of it. Surely you have heard of the "welfare cliff"? And if our welfare system DID offer "education for adults" would that not be much better than a cold, monthly check?

John said...

I am trying to decided if you are more of a "one trick pony", a "dog with a bone" or a "problem solver who only has a hammer"...

The reality is that your solution ignores the most significant 5+ years of a child's life.

Welfare does offer adult training. Unfortunately childcare funding and training dollars are scarce...

John said...

And not to mention, since you ignored the first five years of the child's neural development, nutrition, living environment, role models, etc. Many of these people are challenged to take advantage of it.

Please remember that our systems work great for the vast majority of people with 2 involved and capable parents... It is mostly the poor kids from broken families who suffer...

jerrye92002 said...

And so our systems need to CHANGE so that we do not continue the suffering any more than necessary. We should maximize the chance that these kids will escape, through education, what has trapped their parents. THEN we can start working to relieve the suffering of the parents, by offering them opportunities they may not currently have, and expecting them to take advantage of them.

You keep identifying the problem and blaming the victim, and then wanting government coercion to solve the problem government created.

jerrye92002 said...

I have the easier job in that I only need point out what a miserable failure the current system is, although it seems obvious that those failures point directly to better solutions.

As for your "adult training," I want to know why, in this area, you question the wisdom of government to allocate welfare funds properly, to programs that actually work, when you seem perfectly happy to let the rest of the welfare system run amok.

John said...

I agree that we should maximize the probability of a good out come for the kids.

Which of course means:
- they are wanted, not an accident
- their parent(s) are capable and dedicated
- they are exposed to early childhood education
- they are fed and cared for well
- social and education service systems are held accountable

As long as you support the rights of parent(s)who are not qualified to adopt a dog to keep raising kids... Expect the challenges to continue.

John said...

For others reading. I have left a lot of related links over here.

The link between poverty and poor outcomes is HUGE and SAD.

Anonymous said...

And one thing poverty also can do is lead to poor decision making. Just google 'poverty impedes cognitive function'.

Moose

jerrye92002 said...

OK, where is your magic wand that will end poverty? How about working with something we DO control, like the quality of our public education system? The link between poverty and poor outcomes is sad. The link between poverty and a poor education tells us we need to fix education or fix poverty, and fixing education is far easier.

And I continue to contend that one result of government-subsidized poverty is the sense of hopelessness-- a product of the lack of opportunity-- that prevents "better" decision making.

John said...

I keep linking to my magic wand.

It involves addressing all the problems of unlucky children, not just one of them.

John said...

Poverty Stress and Cognitive Development

Poverty can be Stifling

jerrye92002 said...

John, your "magic wand" is a huge cudgel. Until we have a means of recognizing welfare recipients as real, individual human beings we will not get very far. It is why I believe that getting the kids a much better education, perhaps by letting the parents choose, is key to ending at least some of the hopelessness that keeps them mired in welfare. It isn't "luck" that keeps them there, but intentional public policy (or lack of GOOD policy).

John said...

Please feel free to keep ignoring all the 0 to 5 info I have provided...

jerrye92002 said...

I am ignoring it, thank you for the permission. It does no good to simply identify the problem. You have to propose a solution, and "more government" would not seem to be it. Government has had 50 years to eliminate poverty, and we still have the same number in poverty as we did then.

You need a solution that works with individual human nature, not against it, and since your "preventives" are like the former and speculative, and education choice is the like the latter and proven, and will eventually get to the former, I don't understand the reluctance.

So long as you insist that "unlucky kids" cannot succeed, you give the schools the excuse to let them fail-- the "soft bigotry of low expectations." You've said we need to curb the unions and hold schools accountable, and we won't do it by dumb luck.

John said...

You are welcome.

jerrye92002 said...

I'm not ignoring it any longer; see other thread