Romney announced Saturday that Paul Ryan is his running mate. It seems like a poor idea to me given my view that 80% of the voters are already committed to their candidate (40% L, 40% R), and that only the 20% in the middle are up for grabs. My rationale is that the very Conservative Catholic Ryan will scare a lot of those undecideds into the Obama camp.
Ryan definitely is anti-choice (ie prolife), pro tax reduction for wealthier people, pro social program cuts, etc. It seems to me that many moderates will run away very quickly from this ticket now. It even has me spooked... Where as Romney's more moderate stance seemed to be able to pull them over.
The question is will Romney/Ryan get enough additional Conservatives to come out and vote? Will this be a larger number of votes than the number of Moderate votes it cost?
Forbes Everyone Happy
Sacramento DFL and GOP Agree
It seems both the DFL and GOP are happy with the choice. Who do you think this choice will help the most? What is your rationale?
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9 comments:
I think only 10% of voters are up for grabs. I think Obama was on a path to winning and Romney needed to do something to shake up the race. I think Obama remains the most likely winner. Maybe this choice will make Romney come across as more of a leader, or he could be overshadowed by Ryan at the convention and on the campaign trail. Because of the Ryan budget he will have to give more details about his own budget plan, which seems more likely to hurt rather than help his chances at winning.
Paul Ryan believes that mitt Romney an incredibly wealthy man should have his tax income tax rate reduced from 13.9 percent to .82 percent,the difference to be made up by poor and middle class taxpayers who will see their taxes go up.
Let's just say the choice is problematic for the republicans.
Laurie,
I am always amazed by human nature. My Conservative friends are sure that Romney is leading and my Liberal friends are certain that Obama is winning. Maybe everyone believes in the power of positive thinking.
Some light reading when I get a chance.
Path to Prosperity 2013
Obama Site
Romney Site
As usual my opinion is based on evidence.
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
If Romney believed he was on a winning path someone like Pawlenty would have been his pick.
I am thinking a moderate like Pawlenty would have signalled desperation and a desire to court the middle more so. Whereas picking Ryan seems like an they want to strengthen and encourage the true Conservative vote.
And Lord knows name recognition is much higher for Paul Ryan than Tim Pawlenty.
I forgot to ask. Did those surveys see the Republican wins 2 years ago? I am just curious how reliable they have been in the past.
I think Romney loses swing voters with either Pawlenty or Ryan. I think he might lose by more with Ryan.
I don't think polls are all that reliable /predictive this far out. My link just shows Obama leading recently and he looks even stronger when considering the electoral college.
My hope is the Ryan budget plan might swing a few congressional seats to the dems, though probably not enough to retake the house.
After you take a look at the Romney/Ryan budget/jobs plan I will be curious to know what you think of the trillions of dollars in more tax relief for the wealthy rather than using spending cuts to reduce the deficit.
Definitely a painful choice:
Obama: Raise Spending and Taxes
Romney: Lower Spending and Taxes
No One: Lower Spending and Raise Taxes
Usually I'll err on the side of lowering govt spending. I'll start studying their proposals though.
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