Sunday, January 5, 2014

Why is Violent Crime Rate Falling?

Though I have reported Freakonomics linking the reduction of crime directly to the passing of Roe V Wade before.  Which makes lots of sense to me since unwanted and therefore likely neglected or abused kids are never born, and potential Mother / Fathers may avoid the poverty and/or  stress caused by those expensive little darlings who take a lot of work.

This article identifies some other possible causal factors.
NBC Is X Box keeping you safer?

  • Xbox effect: People staying home.
  • Housing projects: Destruction of old tenements.
  • Cocaine market cracked: Less use / Mature Distribution
  • Lead footprint: Fewer people impacted by lead.
  • Roe v. Wade: Fewer unwanted kids born.
  • Home bodies: Unemployed folks / Neighborhood watch
  • Immigration: Better immigrants?

  • I love the idea that those "violent video games" may actually be lowering the crime rate.  It is so ironic.

    Another possible "cause" of the lower crime rate that occurs to me may be the increase in the welfare state.  I mean why go rob someone when the government will do it for you...

    One last thought I had was that maybe the decline of the 2 Parent family has also helped.  Our culture has become much more accepting of:
    • failed marriages
    • just walking away if you are unhappy
    • men & women both working
    • single parent households
    • other
    My point is that previously there was a lot of pressure on spouses / couples to "make it work".  Which I think would likely lead to more disagreements, stress and potentially violence.  Where as today people seem to have no problem with walking away from situations that are not ideal.  Why get stressed???  Just leave and start with someone new...

    Thoughts?

    Freakonomics Quorom Why is Crime Rate still Falling?

    7 comments:

    Unknown said...

    Kevin Drum says reduction in lead is the best explanation for the decrease in violent crime:

    America's Real Criminal Element: Lead

    From the Archives: Is Lead Really the Main Cause of Violent Crime?

    Race, Lead, and Juvenile Crime

    I think he has even more posts on this, but I think 3 is enough. I think he is pretty persuasive, but then again, since he is liberal he could well be biased and wrong.

    John said...

    He could be, though not because he is a Liberal.

    He could be biased and wrong because he is a human being with unique perspectives, paradigms and blind spots.

    The question is does he do the research to gain knowledge or to support an agenda. It looks like he wants to encourage the government to spend more money to get the lead out.

    Now which came first the knowledge or the agenda??? I personally don't know. Thoughts?

    John said...

    Here is a pretty neutral link.

    Mayo Lead Symptoms

    Since "lead" was in the original list, what did you think of the rest of the possible causes? What other new ones are they missing?

    Apparently Mr Drum has made up his mind. "It's also just about the only good explanation we've got. Other factors are still important, and they probably explain rises and falls in the baseline rate of crime. But lead is the best explanation we have for the rest of it."

    jerrye92002 said...

    I think I have the explanation, but I find it hard to square the statistics. I'm referring to Texas Judge Roy Parker who said, "It isn't the severity of the punishment [that deters] but the certainty of it." When Rudy Giuliani instituted tough policing in NYC, crime dropped dramatically. But I don't think that explains a drop in crime everywhere. I offer two more possibilities:

    1. We know that "more guns, less crime" is true. In the last several years, many states have enacted concealed carry, and crime is much lower as a result. "An armed society is a polite society." -- Robert Heinlein

    2. There are still two kinds of crime-- crimes of violence or passion, and crimes for monetary gain. Violent crime is down because there are fewer young people per capita, and because of (1) above, and because it has become less socially acceptable. And as you say, video games provide an easier outlet for that sort of urge, especially among the young.

    Crimes for monetary gain, like burglary and mugging, are down because it's just too easy to make money selling drugs, and because of (1) and the above reduced "stomach" for real violence possible in these crimes. Even prostitution and such have declined because of the threat of AIDS.

    John said...

    Laurie, I deleted the new topic here and put it in a new post.

    John said...

    Jerry,
    Thoughts why your proposals didn't make any of the above lists?

    Sources that back up your theories?

    I thought drug sales and gang competition were some of the primary violent crimes causes previously. Now you are saying drugs sales are reducing the crime rate. You will like the post I just published from Laurie.

    jerrye92002 said...

    I'm not going to look for sources to back up my theories; they're my theories take 'em or leave 'em. Number one is proven, though, from the book of the same name. The rest are pretty much corroborated by your original post, just parsed differently as to cause and effect.