Sunday, November 2, 2014

Election Crystal Ball

Since I am way too busy enjoying the sun shine, I'll keep this short.  I have no idea what is going to happen on Tuesday.  What do you think will happen in the State and National races?

Will the Liberal voters show up at the polls in this mid-term election?
Will the Conservatives show up and stand the polls on their heads?
Have people just given up and don't care?
Will the GOP control the Senate?
Would it make any difference?

Real Clear Politics 2014
Star Tribune Politics
MPR Politics
MinnPost Politics


jerrye92002 said...

It will make a definite difference. But I won't predict for fear of jinxing the highly desirable result.

Sean said...

Dayton and Franken will win reasonably comfortably, by 5-6 points.

The GOP will retake the MN House and the US Senate.

The DFL will sweep the constitutional offices, with SoS being the closest.

The IP will squeak out one 5%+ finish (I'm guessing in the SoS race), ensuring their major party status will continue.

John said...

I am not sure, I think the Johnson/Dayton race may be close.

Dayton has the incumbent advantage, however his public speaking presence is terrible and many folks don't think much of the Senate office building and the Vikings stadium.

I think Collin Peterson will win, even my very Conservative father likes him. And likely Stewart Mills, however it will be close.

John said...

The big question is will those who support government mandated wealth redistribution show up at the polls in order to continue receiving their checks?

Laurie said...

I think Franken will win by more than Dayton.

I think Dfl will hold the MN house (probably wishful thinking)

Who cares who wins the senate, though I actually kind of hope that the GOP does because with both chambers of congress they will be expected to do something and I'd like to see what they will do (Obama will veto anything dems don't like)

I will agree with John and pick Peterson and Mills.

and lastly I think many people who receive welfare benefits are among those who don't vote.

John said...

Why do you think they pass on voting? They definitely have the most to gain.

Or are we back to G2A Why Are Poor People Poor...

If the GOP does control the Senate, Obama will definitely need to get that VETO pen ready. If he does not have one, maybe he will need to buy a stamp. Politifact Pending Bills

Laurie said...

I think the GOP house and senate will have some differences that will impede legislation from passing both chambers. I think the presidential campaign will be better when the difference between the policies and priorities of the parties becomes more clear to voters paying attention. It's much easier to obstruct than legislate.

What do you significant legislation do expect they will pass? or what would you like them to pass?

I think low income, low info voters (wrongly) believe it doesn't matter who wins.
I might volunteers for GOTV tomorrow in a north mpls call center after work. Though more than likely I will blow it off and go home. I have been a no show for several get voter contact shifts in the last few weeks.

John said...

Here is an interesting list.
Speaker: Jobs

jerrye92002 said...

"If the GOP does control the Senate, Obama will definitely need to get that VETO pen ready."

OK, the desired outcome has been reached. Two questions: Do you really think Obama is that interested in what Congress does to actually VETO something, and make a public fight out of it knowing he is (or will almost certainly be) on the wrong side? Are the Republicans smart enough to back him into a corner on some things and force him to put down the veto pen?

John said...

"Are the Republicans smart enough"

Sometimes I really wonder...

jerrye92002 said...

Look at it this way: If Republicans aren't smart enough to bamboozle Obama, narcissistic naif that he is, then they aren't smart at all. I think my other question is more interesting. With Obama being the lamest of ducks, what incentive does he have to pick fights that he might lose? He won't accommodate the GOP, of course, or cooperate as Clinton did, but I can't see him making a real effort to engage Congress when he hasn't before. And I still think it possible that he might come unglued when he can't casually get his way on everything.