Saturday, October 24, 2009

RAS Demographics and Class Sizes

I wanted to spend some serious time reviewing these, in order to generate some deep and meaningful thoughts. Unfortunately time is tight and my yard needs raking.... So:


I would like at least 10 of the 160 of you to give us your thoughts...
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(Please share your thoughts....)
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Remember joining in the conversation does not hurt nearly as bad as getting a flu shot... And it is absolutely free and anonymous... And everyone is welcome, inside the district or out... All you need are opinions and thoughts !!!

RAS Demographics and Class Sizes
(Watch the "Y" axis scale... It does not always start at zero... So trends may look more alarming than they may be... However the demographics are definitely changing significantly)

RAS School Improvement Plan

I'll leave you with only one thought for the conspiracy theorists. If the district is hiding anything, I am not sure what it is ??? After a year of digging into the District, I have never hit a closed door or a lack of data.

I think you probably need to spend more time with the District officials learning about the details... I don't agree with them occasionally, however I am not sure what needs to exposed that is not readily available to those who make the time to ask...

18 comments:

Christine said...

Okay, I have not specifically asked for this info, so I can't say they are "withholding" it, but I can't believe they put out this report without saying how many kids left due to the facilities shakeup. The district is blaming this declining enrollment on birthrates, and clearly that is only part of the picture. Even looking at kindergarten, I know of six kindergarten students who did not start in RAS this year, so lower kindergarten numbers does not mean that there are less kids, just less kids choosing RAS.

Also, the class that was in kindergarten last year lost 89 of its 939 students for this year, and the first grade class lost 67 of its 929. (I used last year numbers from the Wold report, though, so therefore cannot guarantee accuracy.) Where did those kids go? I can tell you where some of them are: Wayzata, Good Shepard, St. Bart's, and Holy Name, and Beacon. They didn't move out of the area.

Charter school enrollment for 281 kids has gone from 105 to 620 over the last six years, so an average of 100 kids a year have left for that.
A staggering 1616 students open enrolled last year to other districts. In total, 2236 students choose to go elsewhere, which is nearly 20% of the population. Those are stats from last year-- this year will likely be higher. I know there are at least two more-- my kids! And that doesn't even include those who go to private schools.

Also, I don't think anyone has really acknowledged how badly the upshot in class sizes hurt the district. I think it already manifested itself in poor test scores in the schools most affected, but I know quite a few people who open enrolled, opted for charter, or flat out moved at that point because they were unhappy with the state of affairs. I think the long term damage from that could be equal to the damage from the "right sizing."

This school district is hemorrhaging students, and until they can admit it and work to stop it, they are going to continue to have problems.

John said...

I won't argue with you regarding the exodus of families and kids... We know dozens who either literally sold their home and moved, or have chosen one of the options you mentioned. In fact, the young couple next door has sold and plans to buy in another district.

I am not sure if RAS can actually report this reality. It may be like yelling "FIRE" in a crowded theater. However, hopefully they are not delusional regarding the current state of affairs.

The question we have discussed before, how does our community and schools stop this degradation? Whether it was the chicken or egg that started it...

One down, nine to go !!!!

Anonymous said...

How can RAS stop the exodus? It's like yelling FIRE after the theater has burned to the ground and all of the patrons are sitting at the nice new state-of-the art mulitiplex down the street. It's too late.

John said...

Excellent and amusing perspective !!! 8 more to go...

John said...

After sleeping on it... My thought is there are still ~12,000 kids in the theater and a lot of things are going right in RAS, so that trendy shiny multi-plex may not appeal to everyone. There is probably still time if we are creative and work together...

Still looking for 8 more...

John said...

2 Questions:
- Do you think RAS kept the class size reduction promise? Rationale?

- Are these academic improvement plans what you think is appropriate to the situation? Rationale?

R-Five said...

I don't think the District is hiding anything. They are, however, a bit too comfortable with the poor communication of some of that data, like exactly where is the money going. And I'm not entirely satisfied with how class size data is presented.

The biggest problem 281 faces is unchallenged assumptions, like the class size myth and the certification myth.

John said...

R-Five,
I assume by "Class Size" myth, you mean your belief that there is no relation between class size and academic achievement. (ie bigger classes are fine) This one I understand since we have disagreed on it several times.

What do you mean by the "Certification Myth"? I have an inkling, but don't want to speak for you.

As for different demographic presentation layouts, hopefully the info gave you more specific questions that I am sure Dennis Beekman or Jeff Dehler would be happy to answer with their massive spreadsheets.

As for Financial statements, now those are messy anyway we look at them... You started with TERM and we both spent time with Gary. None of the attempts simplified this incredibly complicated topic very well.

John said...

I forgot 3 down, 7 to go...

Christine said...

Sorry, I can't add to your count. :-)
In Dennis Beekman's report you can see the enrollment by cities. That plummeting enrollment line for Plymouth has nothing to do with birthrates.

Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to see what has happened to the minority population of the schools now that we have an "east-west" alignment. In comparing the two high schools, it is obvious that we have a "white" school and a "minority" school. How does this fit with the idea of desegregation? Why don't the high school populations reflect the demographics of our district?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I'm with Anonymous on the comment. One of the things that most worried me about the school closing and the option specifically choosen is how it breaks the district in half basically. This is one of the keys to the success in the future is driving down the differences on the both race and social-economic lines when it comes to test scores. It seems like we almost made the split on purpose.

Sorry for the cross post but I have written about 3000 words on the subject so I don't want to write it all again.

http://www.portalxp.org/

But the idea is generally this. Demographics are changing. We re did the boundaries without taking that into concern as far as I can tell and without a really good plan into the next three years we will have issues.

Alright - didn't proof this but little one is crying so have to run. Hope it all makes sense.

DJ

R-Five said...

Regarding the "Certification Myth" - this is one of Jay Greene's many such myths. Here, he said "One of the strongest and most consistent findings in the entire body of research on teacher quality is that teaching certificates and master's degrees in education are irrelevant to classroom performance."

So every time I hear how great our teachers are, I ask "How would you know? You don't measure teacher performance."

And why are we paying for advanced degrees when they are far beyond the K-12 level, have no proven additional value (above), and the District is still constantly retraining teachers regardless?

John said...

DJ,
Cross posting is highly acceptable and encouraged at G2A, though you need to do this cool html code thing to make it simpler for readers...HTML codes

Ta Daaaa...DJ's Social Economic Divide

John said...

Christine,
Your comments are always welcome, even when you don't "count"... I am going to assume we have 3 different anonymous commenters... Therefore, 5 down and five to go...

C'mon Teachers and Teacher defenders,
R-Five just inferred that Teaching certificates and Masters degrees are irrelevant. Do you really want to let the comment stand unchallenged? (I see both sides, so I am staying quiet on this one...)

Finally to All,
My 2 Questions still stand:
- Do you think RAS kept the class size reduction promise? Rationale?

- Are these academic improvement plans what you think is appropriate to the situation? Rationale?

Christine said...

I have to say I agree with Speed on the certification issue. A master's degree alone doesn't make you better.
Your cooperating teacher when you are student teaching and your peer teachers and principal are critically important. Excellence breeds excellence.
Class size does matter more in the equation. I accomplished a lot more with a class size of 21 than I did with 34. But is 27 way different than 25? Depends on the class and the teacher, but generally no.
281 seems to have its head in the sand when it comes to looking at how the large class sizes affected the test scores last year. When the scores came out, they weren't great, and there was no mention of the class size in their press at all.

Christine said...

And back to your question John, I do think they kept their class size promise for this year. Do I think that it will last for the length of the levy? No way.

JJ said...

Hi, here are a few random comments (a new commenter for the tally!) based on the preceding comments.

Yes, I believe the district kept its class size promise. And yes, it will be difficult to sustain with current funding. And our neighbors look to be in the same situation.

Does the district have the data to state how many students aren't in our schools this year because their parents didn't want them to go to their newly assigned schools? I'm guessing not. I don't pretend to know what the enrollment numbers by city are supposed to be, but Plymouth is #4 in terms of % decline in total number of students year over year. However, it's obvious that the realignment caused students to leave, so if what is asked for is an acknowledgment of that fact in the official district document, I don't disagree. It could have been an unquantified bullet point. There just isn't the ability to quantify the number.

Anonymous #1 mentioned the east/west alignment of the two high schools. The HS boundaries weren't changed, but the MS boundaries were changed to mirror the HS. I'm no expert, but the boundary might need to be a pretty funky diagonal from NE to SW to get the two HS demographics to look alike (maybe putting Zachary Lane into the Cooper area). I suppose the Board didn't want all the trauma of changing HS boundaries to go along with the ES and MS. I agree that those boundaries will ensure that the MS and HS will continue to look quite different and that will continue to cause conflict. But if the belief/fact is that the ES changes caused enrollment issues, what would changing HS boundaries cause?

John asked a question about the academic improvement plans. I assume you are referring to plans for PMS, NP, and FO that were discussed at Oct 19 Board meeting. I haven't taken the time to listen to the presentations, only looked at the ppt presentations. Given my mindset, I like seeing the detailed plan presented by PMS, but assume the other schools have that also. I like the use of testing to figure out where each student needs help, and also like using smaller groups to really hit at those areas. I know there has been some concern about clustering at schools, but my student was helped greatly when in ES by a small reading group at child's level. The plans have specific goals that don't look like slam dunks. I think it's a good start.

On a related note, I used to be concerned about the test scores at my child's school. Child is in the third school that is not making AYP (1 ES, 2 MS). I have come to believe that whatever the average test scores, my youngster can have effective, caring teachers, be challenged, and get an education that meets said child's needs.

This wasn't asked, but I think testing is extremely important IF the results are used directly to help educate the child. There needs to be accountability on the part of teachers and administrators for results, which is lacking in most school districts. Anyone think QComp would help improve accountability, and therefore results??