Monday, March 13, 2017

CBO Scores AHCA

You know you have problems if you get CNN and Breitbart to agree.  The report came out as bad as we believed.  Thoughts?


CBO Scoring PDF

30 comments:

John said...

What fascinates me is why the Feds are not pushing this down to the States? My answer would be something like...

"No one will lose their insurance if their State does not want them to..."

The healthcare of individuals is a responsibility of the States. We the federal government are going to stop collecting all HHS taxes and stop spending on grants and programs. The States are now responsible for the health and well being of their citizens as it should be.

The Federal government will focus on National Defense, National Laws, & National Infrastructure. We will maintain FICA, SS and Medicare due to the long duration nature of these programs.

Sean said...

Candidate Trump promised: Cover everybody, lower deductibles and premiums, and no cuts to Medicaid. This bill is an oh-fer.

John said...

Please remember... Trump lies like a rug... And he apparently thought healthcare was simple until just lately...

John said...

These links should probably be here also for all those folks who think the CBO got it terribly wrong regarding Obamacare.
CBO ACA Forecast Review
CBO ACA Review 2

John said...

MP Death of Medical Device tax

Anonymous said...

Republicans made three promises for Trump Care:

1. Trump Care will cover more.

2. Trump Care will cost less.

3. Under Trump Care you will be able to keep your existing insurance.

Has Donald Trump kept his promises?

--Hiram

John said...

Well that depends if you are one of the "ACA Medical Welfare" recipients or one of the majority who was paying more each year to fund the program?

I mean ACA cost me more each year:
- $2500 / yr in FSA savings
- added features: coverage to 26
- taxes on medical devices charged to insurance
- other?

Sean said...

"I mean ACA cost me more each year"

Premiums in the employer market have not increased out of line with pre-ACA history.

Sean said...

Here we are again in Appelenville, where the proprietor can find problems with everyone else's plan but has no ideas of his own that are any better.

Anonymous said...

Well that depends if you are one of the "ACA Medical Welfare" recipients or one of the majority who was paying more each year to fund the program?

So the answer to my three questions is yes?


--Hiram

John said...

Sean,
In this case I have no idea what it is the correct answer.

The Liberals are certain that the feds taxing the successful, regulating excessively and giving freebies to the unsuccessful is the only fair answer.

The Conservatives are certain that reducing regulations and making people pay for their own healthcare is the best way to keep costs low and increase personal responsibility.

And neither side seems willing to acknowledge the truth in each others argument.

If I was forced to decide, I would get the federal government out of all Medicaid, Welfare, etc. The states should be doing this.

John said...

Hiram,
I think the answer to all three is "it depends"...

Sean said...

"And neither side seems willing to acknowledge the truth in each others argument."

The conservative bill dramatically reduces the number of people with health insurance and it keeps costs low by providing less service and making health insurance so expensive for near-seniors that they can't afford it. What "truth" am I missing in their argument?

John said...

How about this truth...

The Conservative bill reduces wealth transfer taxes and costs on the majority of Americans, and increases their flexibility.

And people who failed to learn, work, live within their means, save and invest will reap what they sewed during their life. They will not be allowed to make other Americans carry the burdens that came directly from their life choices.

These people will have access to healthcare via charitable organizations and individuals who are willing to freely help carry their burden. Or by gaining the skills to get a good job that provides insurance as a benefit.

John said...

What is it with Liberals that they think the successful folks should pay huge amounts in taxes? (ie punished)

And that unsuccessful folks should get free services and supplies? (ie rewarded)

It seems SO backwards if we want to encourage our friends and neighbors to make better choices, work harder, etc.

Sean said...

"The Conservative bill reduces wealth transfer taxes and costs on the majority of Americans"

Dude, you continue to show your ignorance of how the ACA works.

"They will not be allowed to make other Americans carry the burdens that came directly from their life choices."

If they're not going to be turned away at the ER, then that's exactly what they will be doing. You can choose to put a rational structure around it and build a mechanism like the mandate to get them to contribute or you can go back to the bad old days where it was paid for by a motley mixture of taxes and surcharges on people who had insurance.

Sean said...

Per the CBO, a 64-year-old under the Ryan plan with $25K in income would have to pay over 1/2 of their income to pay their insurance premium. What kind of freedom is that, exactly?

John said...

Please explain to me how ACA works...

Here is a list of the ACA taxes.

Did you think the Medicaid expansion and all those new big subsidies came from the government money tree?

Sean said...

"Did you think the Medicaid expansion and all those new big subsidies came from the government money tree?"

No, but it most certainly didn't come from "the majority of Americans". The typical citizen will see a zero or negligible impact on their taxes from the GOP bill.

Let's be perfectly clear what this bill is: it's a tax cut for wealthy taxpayers that is paid for by cutting health care on low- and middle-income taxpayers. In that sense, this bill has been remarkably useful in laying bare the heart of the Republican agenda. It's far more important to them to cut the taxes of wealthy people than to make sure that people have access to health care.

Saying "freedom" over and over again doesn't make it so. I return to the question I originally posed: Per the CBO, a 64-year-old under the Ryan plan with $25K in income would have to pay over 1/2 of their income to pay their insurance premium. What kind of freedom is that, exactly?

John said...

Sean,
Sorry but being an independent and free adult means accepting the consequences of your choices. Our children start out dependent and very "un-free", we keep them in our sight, control their behaviors and straighten up their messes. However as we teach them and they learn, we continue to give them more freedom and expect them to deal with the consequences of their bad decisions. Then at some point we give them their independence and total freedom.

The alternative is to spend your dependent life with a responsible party around cleaning up after your errors... And we know that co-dependency is a terrible thing for both parties.

So my question to you is what is this 64 year old doing earning $12/hr at a job where health insurance is not part of the compensation?

Is it the responsibility of the US Tax Payers and other Health care insurance customers to pay the bills of this 64 year old because of the poor choices they made?

You are correct that this GOP bill is big tax cut, but it does nothing more than undo the huge tax and cost increases that the ACA forced on all of us. As I said, I don't have a good answer. But ACA is just one big wealth transfer / welfare tool... Now if that is a good or bad thing is a different question.

The usual questions remain:

Is it healthy for our country to tax successful people at higher than necessary rates to give money and services to unsuccessful people?

What behaviors does this punishment / reward system encourage? discourage?

Sean said...

So poor people deserve their fate and we should allow them to die. Got it. Just as long as John gets his tax cut, everything is hunky-dory.

"You are correct that this GOP bill is big tax cut, but it does nothing more than undo the huge tax and cost increases that the ACA forced on all of us."

It did nothing of the sort. It raised taxes on a relatively small number of people, and overall health care costs have not exploded. Does the ACA need some tweaks to make the exchanges function better? Yes. But even the CBO report indicated that they expected the exchanges -- with no changes -- to achieve a sustainable equilibrium in upcoming years. The 'death spiral' is conservative fantasy.

John said...

Now I agree that the most successful folks incurred the biggest tax increase.

But all of us citizens incurred cost increases . (ie flex spending change, medical device tax, etc) There is no denying this.

Now for the big question... Are all those taxes, subsidies, market set up costs, market marketing costs, etc counted in the recent "costs of American healthcare"???

Or are big gov't costs not included? The problem with high level numbers are we really have no idea what is in them most of the times.

By the way, no the poor should not die. They should be helped by themselves, their family, charities and other voluntary systems first, gov't assistance should be the last resort.

Laurie said...

If 20 million people lose their insurance, 24,000 extra people will die.

Sean said...

"Are all those taxes, subsidies, market set up costs, market marketing costs, etc counted in the recent "costs of American healthcare"???"

Yes.

"The problem with high level numbers are we really have no idea what is in them most of the times."

No, only people who spout without looking have that problem.

"By the way, no the poor should not die. hey should be helped by themselves, their family, charities and other voluntary systems first, gov't assistance should be the last resort."

The non-government systems have never been able to fill the need. How, then, would you construct a system of governments support that the poor won't die from lack of affordable access to the health care system?

John said...

So oh wise one...

Please ensure us that all the costs of ACA have been counted in the lower than average increases... (ie aca taxes, aca fees, subsidies, market set up costs, market marketing costs, etc)

A source would be appreciated.

John said...

Laurie, Source and rationale please.

Sean said...

Health care inflation is one of the breakouts from the overall measures of inflation available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Kaiser Family Foundation has a lot of good research on premium increases, both in and out of the exchanges. Premium increases in the employer market have been 4% or less for five consecutive years, according to their data.

Sean said...

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/14/14921962/ahca-mortality-gun-homicides

Sean said...

Now, the CPI measure isn't perfect (it doesn't include all taxes) but it's still the best representation of what the overall spend is that is available.

John said...

I will look at them again when I get time, but one can not say definitively that healthcare costs have been increasing at a slower rate unless we know what is in the numbers. Especially when the Fed ACA costs have been so huge during it's set up.