Monday, December 12, 2016

Racism vs Probability

The comment I left at MP Assessing Narrative. Now we will see if it makes it past the moderators.

"Racism: "The belief that all members of each race possess characteristics or abilities specific to that race, especially so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races."

"the vast majority of killers (71 percent of those convicted for homicide to 4 percent for whites.)"

It always amazes me how often people want to misuse statistics in the name of proving Racism. I mean even Jessie Jackson understands probability. “There is nothing more painful to me … than to walk down the street and hear footsteps and start thinking about robbery, then look around and see somebody white and feel relieved.” That is unless you believe he is Racist against Blacks?

Now the unfortunate reality is that minorities often live in high crime areas, drive older cars that have problems, commit some crimes at higher rates, etc and this leads to them being pulled over more often. Don't complain to the police, be thankful that they are being vigilant. Instead complain to those in your community who give it a bad name.

And yes there are some bad officers, but that number is miniscule compared to the number of gang members who spoil the reputation of neighborhoods, communities, etc. Let's focus on the real problem."

62 comments:

Sean said...

"Let's focus on the real problem."

The misuse of police power is a serious problem. We have to be able to walk and chew gum on these sorts of issues.

John said...

I disagree. I think the vast majority of Police are great.

Now if BLM complained about gangs, single Black Baby Makers, etc more than they do cops... Maybe we would have some common ground.

Truth about Crime and Race

NY Crime Stats

Sean said...

"I disagree. I think the vast majority of Police are great."

I never said otherwise.

The problem is that when the police do make mistakes, they are seldom held to account. Just look at the verdict in the case last week, where the police officer was caught on video shooting an unarmed suspect in the back and was found not guilty.

If you want to rebuild trust, then there needs to be accountability for police misconduct. We can do both things at the same time -- work to reduce crime in high-crime areas AND hold cops accountable when they do something wrong.

And there's precisely nothing wrong with people in the BLM movement demanding that action.

John said...

From MP

"Jesse Jackson. No, I do not believe he is racist against Blacks. But I do believe he - like all of us - is affected by unconscious levels of implicit bias. The explanation for his comment is as simple as that.

And no, racism and implicit bias are not the exact same thing." Pat


"Rational Thinking. Is Implicit Bias another term for Rational Thinking? In Jesse Jackson's case.

He knows that facts and statistics indicate that he is much more likely to be violently mugged by a Black man than a White man in the situation he is facing, and even less likely to be violently mugged by a woman. So based on this data:

- he thinks he is safe if a woman approaches
- he is a little nervous if a White man approaches
- he is very nervous if a Black man approaches

To me this is logic based bias and is very healthy. Remember to always be aware of your surrounding when walking downtown at night. :-)

Now this does not mean people should take fight or flight action in the higher risk possibility, but you should be more aware. To do otherwise could end very badly." G2A

John said...

Sean,
BLM = "Black Lives Matter"

And yet the only deaths I see them protesting are officer involved shootings. They simply have no credibility.

If they truly felt that all "Black Lives Matter", I think they would be protesting often and loudly against the gangs and other criminal elements who take the vast majority of Black Lives each year, and cause rational people to get nervous around young Black men out in the night.

Instead they spend their time protesting against the people who have dedicated their lives and risk their lives daily in order to save All Lives.

And they have now become judge, jury and executioner by demanding that the officer is guilty before the investigation has even started.

So yes they have every right to chase a symptom, when the real problems are living among them.

John said...

Apparently justice was served, whether we agree with the mistrial of not.

the result occurred.

Laurie said...

you don't understand the BLM protests because you don't want to understand. As usual you are so very sure of your own logic that you are completely blind to the reasons thousands of people choose to protest. Your time would be better spent reading, as I don't think repeating your same talking points here every couple of months is persuading anyone of anything on this topic.

Laurie said...

Here is a link for you to read - it is about racial antagonism in politics - which is related if not exactly on topic.


A pollster on the racial panic Obama’s presidency triggered — and what Democrats must do now

John said...

Laurie,
I understand that if you read articles like that, your views that white people are racist will be reinforced.

Which ironically makes you more racist towards white people... :-)

John said...

Now if Hillary lost White votes, I would think it was because she decided to support BLM instead of the White, Black, Hispanic, etc police officers who risk their lives for us citizens. Which has a lot more to do with us respecting the men and women in uniform than any racist view.

John said...

Now I whole heartedly dislike the facts that:

- on a per capita basis Black men commit a huge amount of the violent crime in the USA

- 70+% of Black babies are born to single Mothers

If the Black community really wants to be viewed differently, they need to change their behaviors. And no one else can do this for them, no matter how many people you try to blame for their personal choices.

John said...

This has tons of interesting data.

John said...

So let's assume that we all have common goals, and I'll use Black people as an example since this is where we started:
- want Police to stop focusing on black males
- want Black families to be mostly stable dual Parent households
- want Black family income to match White family income
- want Black crime stats and gang membership to be at or below those for White citizens
- want Black children to have same or better academic scores than White children
- other

How do we/they accomplish these excellent goals?

Anonymous said...

Probability is one of those things people think they understand but don't. It's a concept that makes people think they know more than they do, which is something racism does also.

--Hiram

John said...

Hiram,
So are you saying that the probability that 7 out of 10 black babies will be born to a black single woman is incorrect?

It is just some racist view perpetuated by some Black Racist like Don Lemon?

jerrye92002 said...

Timely, because PEOTUS Trump is meeting with black leaders today to discuss how he can keep his promises to the black community beyond "what have you got to lose." A good start would be recognizing that most of us want only good things for our neighbors of whatever color, and that standing around shouting racist ridiculae is not going to do it.

Sorry, but to me BLM is beneath contempt. It started with "Hands up, don't shoot," which was a despicable lie, according to both witness testimony and all the forensic evidence. And it went downhill from there.

John said...

Pat left me one of those condescending Liberal responses... Surprise...

"Implicit Bias: There are lots of articles out there that explain what implicit bias is. You might do well to read one or two of them so that you can discuss the topic knowledgeably." Pat

"I have read them. And yes every human has preconceived views / beliefs regarding people and situations that are formed based on one's role models, new sources, experiences, education, etc. Often this is part of becoming wise. Of course one must always be open to challenging their existing knowledge in order to continue to learn and be flexible/effective in different situations.

Let's reverse this for discussion. A Black driver has an implicit bias towards Police officers. In his mind he is certain that they are going to suspect him of things and are out to get him. How do you think that affects his behaviors, communication style, driving skills, etc?

My opinion is that it drives their fight/ flight response which of course escalates given situations.

Now I agree that mature well trained offices should be able to de-escalate these situations most of the time. But I am not willing to risk the officer's life to do so every time. Some times bad things happen." G2A

Sean said...

"And yet the only deaths I see them protesting are officer involved shootings. They simply have no credibility."

If you think that people in BLM movement aren't working to improve their own communities, then you're displaying your ignorance.

You (and I) have no standing to lecture any black person about what issues they should care about.

John said...

Of course we do as citizen's of the USA who pay the bills for their social dysfunction. If they weren't costing tax payers much more than they pay in, I would agree with you. Unfortunately they do...

I truly hope they figure out how to value education, getting married, then having children, staying married, respect and work with their child's Teachers, avoid criminal gangs, fit into business society, etc.

It would be GREAT for them and our country!!!

Liberals keep wanting to make this a Race issue, when it is actually about beliefs, societal norms, behaviors, etc as much as anything.

John said...

Please remember that there are millions of Blacks, Hispanics and other minorities who understand and sanction the above beliefs and behaviors as important to success.

And there are millions of Whites who fail to get it...

John said...

Here is some interesting info. Apparently Blacks were more likely to be married than Whites until the 1960's. What a change the War on Poverty and passing of Civil Rights helped to contribute to over the last 50+ years.

Black Marriage Demographics

I think both were the correct thing to do, but the unexpected consequences are horrifying for the unlucky kids.

Sean said...

It's fascinating to note when you think it's OK for people to butt in. Contrast your opinion on this issue versus the urban-rural discussion from a few posts ago. It's just amazing that you think people who think the same as you have the right to speak up, but those who disagree with you should shut up and listen to you explain the world to them.

Sean said...

"passing of Civil Rights"

You're suggesting that blacks would be better off if we continued to have government-sanctioned discrimination?

John said...

Rural Conservatives voted for a somewhat Conservative candidate. Urban Liberals proceeded to label them as Racist, Deplorable, Bigots, Xenophobes, Misogynists, etc, etc, etc. Then the Urban Liberals claimed that the Rural Conservative voters were dependent on them... I just noted that the Rural Conservatives have the right to vote as they wish, that the Urban Liberals should not call people they do not know terrible names and that the Urban Liberals aren't subsidizing them. I am fine with them disagreeing, just be polite and not so prejudiced.

You said... "You (and I) have no standing to lecture any black person about what issues they should care about." To which I disagreed. This is our metro and their high crime rate, poor academics, high single Parent household rates, highway stoppages, etc have a big impact on our tax bills, public safety, quality of the community, perception of our schools, etc.

So yes we do have good reason to comment regarding behaviors and beliefs that trap people in poverty, crime, etc. Do you really disagree?

John said...

As for Civil Rights, I just noted the 2 Huge Events that coincided with the decimation of the Black Family structure. I suppose I should also note "free love", the VietNam war, downward trend towards consumers Buying American, war on drugs, etc.

Do you really think I would be against Civil Rights? Really?

Now the question is what caused the destruction of the Black Households and how can they put it back together?

Writing them checks has not proven successful and may have been very destructive.

Sean said...

I disagree with your statement that BLM protesters don't really care about black lives. You don't walk in their shoes and you have no place to comment.

Sean said...

You said "passing of Civil Rights helped to contribute". Please explain how.

John said...

That is a good question... I am not sure...

"What a change the War on Poverty and passing of Civil Rights helped to contribute to over the last 50+ years. I think both were the correct thing to do, but the unexpected consequences are horrifying for the unlucky kids."

I have a firm concept of how the War on Poverty could have caused the disaster. Not sure how getting Civil Rights impacted the family structure of Black Americans.

These far right folks think that it was all the "victim" talk that accompanied the Civil Rights movement that slowly led the Blacks to believe they are victims... Therefore they started to act like that. Possible?

Please remember that ~30% of most minority groups voted GOP, however only ~8% of the Black population did. I think the Democrats and Liberals really screwed these folks up and encouraged them to be dependent for political gains. It is unfortunate.

John said...

My exact words were.

"BLM = "Black Lives Matter"

And yet the only deaths I see them protesting are officer involved shootings. They simply have no credibility.

If they truly felt that all "Black Lives Matter", I think they would be protesting often and loudly against the gangs and other criminal elements who take the vast majority of Black Lives each year, and cause rational people to get nervous around young Black men out in the night."

So I disagree with this paraphrase. "that BLM protesters don't really care about black lives" I think they care for Black Lives, especially those that support their anti-police message for sure.

Now if I see the TV crews and Protesters standing out in front of gang houses telling them to change their evil ways and give up their guns / drugs, then we will know they have gotten serious about saving Black Lives.

John said...

As a note, please remember that this is my community.

Robbinsdale District

Is this your community?
East Carver District

Sean said...

"That is a good question... I am not sure..."

Then why did you say it?

"Now if I see the TV crews and Protesters standing out in front of gang houses telling them to change their evil ways and give up their guns / drugs, then we will know they have gotten serious about saving Black Lives."

So only as long as they act in accordance with your ideas are they "serious"? Living in the Robbinsdale school district doesn't make you an expert of the black experience. I at least am aware of the limits of my knowledge and my inability to truly understand what someone of a different race goes through.

John said...

I personally know nothing about the "Black experience"... But I do know that if children are raised by one poor academically challenged parent, the chance of their being successful and escaping poverty / crime decreases greatly. Especially when they are surrounded by peers who are in a similar predicament.

And I know which groups of students cause the most challenges / costs in our District... And I will give you a hint: it is NOT the kids with 2 Parents at home, both of whom show up for conferences, etc.

Finally I know that staying married and being a good Parent is extremely challenging at times.

jerrye92002 said...

I think maybe I can help with the question of when the black family began to disintegrate. It was at the beginning of the Great Society, when the AFDC program was modified by Lyndon Johnson in 1 very specific way. Up until then, women could receive welfare payments for their "dependent children" only if there was "no man in the house." If there WAS a man in the house, the children were assumed to be dependent on him and there was no welfare available. And there used to be regular surprise home inspections by the welfare department to verify there was indeed no man present. Johnson thought this intrusive, and I suppose impinged on these folks' dignity, and stopped the home visits. This led to poor (mostly black because of historical discrimination) couples refusing to get married so that, officially, there was no man in the house and they could get some extra income. Then, it slowly devolved through less and less commitment by the man to his family, and more and more a matter of the women being dependent on government welfare rather than the father of her children. And here we are. We sometimes talk about the "marriage penalty" and the IRS code, where a married couple paid more in taxes than to single people. But the REAL marriage penalty is the discouragement of marriage caused by loss of welfare payments.

John said...

"Why did I say it..."

Well to be very truthful it was a subliminal slip because I am full of implicit bias and deep want down to maintain my White superiority... Is that what you want to hear? :-)

Give me a break... Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar...

As noted above I just picked the 2 HUGE Events of the 1960's... It is not like I spend much time thinking when I comment between doing real work.

What did you think of the link? Did the White Liberals help create this disaster by convincing Black people that they could never succeed without the White Liberal's assistance and protection?

Laurie said...

Michelle Alexander: “A System of Racial and Social Control”


if you had an open mind you might find my link interesting. How did you come to view yourself as smarter than so many experts in so many different fields. Did your parents tell you everyday how smart you are?

John said...

Not very often... My parents were/are very critical people...

So are you arguing that the police were running around arresting innocent law abiding citizens by the millions?

Did the Police show up at supper and take Dad away from the Mrs and kids?

Or did people get arrested because their social fabric broke down first?

Without strong families to ground them... Did men of the society joined the Lord of the Flies?

John said...

Laurie,
Since I read yours... Did you read this opposing view? Thoughts?

John said...

Or maybe this One is Better?

Now HOW DO WE DETERMINE THE TRUTH????

My view is that it does not matter. Below is what matters...

So let's assume that we all have common goals, and I'll use Black people as an example since this is where we started:
- want Police to stop focusing on black males
- want Black families to be mostly stable dual Parent households
- want Black family income to match White family income
- want Black crime stats and gang membership to be at or below those for White citizens
- want Black children to have same or better academic scores than White children
- other

How do we/they accomplish these excellent goals?

John said...

By the way, I am okay with letting anyone who has served their time start voting again... Not sure why civil rights are stripped for longer than the sentence...

Then again tracking sexual predators does seem appropriate... But stopping them from voting???

Laurie said...

I think institutional racism of the past and present contributed significantly to the breakdown in the black family. I think there is racism throughout the entire criminal justice system. I think that steps should be taken reform the criminal justice system.

As for what can be done, I would look for innovative ways to make interventions in education to raise the achievement levels of populations that are currently failing. At my school I would provide funding to increase the school year by about 6 weeks. I don't know what would help African American students in Mpls public schools. From the few stories I've heard from a teacher whose daughter works in a tough mpls school, I would hire more people to provide behavior support / interventions.

John said...

Laurie,
Are you being close minded? Did you read my sources?

"If you had an open mind you might find my link interesting. How did you come to view yourself as smarter than so many experts in so many different fields. Did your parents tell you everyday how smart you are?" :-)

John said...

By the way, I agree that the Mpls schools need a lot more "substitute Parents" to make up for the Baby Maker the unlucky kids have at home in many cases.

As I and Jerry said on the Baby Maker post...

"I agree with you on one thing... "Maturity, self-discipline and work ethics have to be taught, and then there have to be ways in which they can exercise those skills." Unfortunately the Baby Makers do not have these themselves, so their children have a real problem. (as I have been saying)" G2A

"I believe those skills need to be taught by our public education system; that they are currently not being taught, and that the key to breaking the cycle of poverty is an effective education system that transmits knowledge, skills AND values." Jerry

John said...

It is a shame that Teachers are apparently now responsible for teaching not only the subject, but the golden rule and everything else that Parents are supposed to do before the kids even get to school. Some high percentage unlucky kid schools even assist the kids with showers, hygiene, clean clothing, etc. What a mess...

Worse yet since the Baby Makers have 5 years to model and teach bad behaviors... The teachers first have to break those ingrained habits / behaviors.

And Jerry wonders why the Mpls schools are so much more expensive than the Suburban schools and why they have such a high failure rate....

The good news is that vouchers will work miracles !!! :-)

Laurie said...

I skimmed your authorless, right wing source. When you provide me a scholarly link from a less biased source, I will take the time to read it more thoroughly and comment. I noticed 250 people have requested the book that my link refers to from HCPL.

Here is another race related link for you. It is very long and I don't think I will get to it until the weekend. Are you familiar TA-NEHISI COATES? I expect reading his reflections will bore you rather than challenge your thinking.

My President Was Black
A history of the first African American White House—and of what came next


jerrye92002 said...

Laurie, thanks for directly addressing the problem at hand.
"I think institutional racism of the past and present contributed significantly to the breakdown in the black family." Unfortunately the black family was MORE intact than white families when racism was rampant. It was AFTER the Civil Rights Act that black family breakdown began. (And welfare was changed).

"I think there is racism throughout the entire criminal justice system. I think that steps should be taken reform the criminal justice system." It's a proper concern, but misplaced. Statistics say that black folks create crime in vastly disproportionate numbers, are LESS likely to be shot by cops of any color, and MORE likely to have committed the crime blatantly and thus more readily convicted. This isn't to suggest justice reform should not be done, it's just that looking at it through the prism of racism isn't going to solve it.

"As for what can be done, I would look for innovative ways to make interventions in education to raise the achievement levels of populations that are currently failing."
Hallelujah! My only quibble with this is that I believe our educators already KNOW half a dozen ways to improve results, but refuse to do them on a large enough scale.
And why should they, when they get paid the same (or more) whether the kids learn or not? You had a couple of good suggestions. I would add to that merit pay for you and your fellow teachers, and additional resources like tutors and reading programs. I'm OK with spending more if what we spend on is working.

John said...

Moved Education challenges and improvement comments to next post

Sean said...

So now we have two people blaming the Civil Rights Act for problems in the black community? Is this blog a Breitbart affiliate now?

jerrye92002 said...

Wrong, Sean. You have one pointing to a correlation, not a cause, and another who points out quite correctly that the Civil Rights Act and the "Black Family Dissolution Act" (aka welfare "reform") occurred at about the same time.

Sean said...

If you think it's not related, then stop bringing it up!

John said...

As I noted above. Over & over.

The civil rights act and work was EXCELLENT. Unfortunately continually preaching to people that they were victims, people were out to get them and entitled to free stuff may have contributed to the family / society disaster we have today in the Black community.

Along with other contributing factors. (ie welfare, justice system, education system, personal decisions, etc)

Sean said...

"Unfortunately continually preaching to people that they were victims, people were out to get them and entitled to free stuff may have contributed to the family / society disaster we have today in the Black community."

But isn't it true -- at least at some level -- that people were out to get them? Even after the Civil Rights Act, redlining continued for nearly two decades as an accepted practice. And just in recent years, we've seen state legislatures take steps specifically designed to reduce the African-American vote?

What you've seen in black communities for decades is what is happening now in many white working class communities -- as the ability to advance economically is removed, everything else falls apart. The difference is that white working class voters have the political clout to do something about it.

There was a section of the Coates piece that Laurie linked to which speaks to this:

"If black men were overrepresented among drug dealers and absentee dads of the world, it was directly related to their being underrepresented among the Bernie Madoffs and Kenneth Lays of the world. Power was what mattered, and what characterized the differences between black and white America was not a difference in work ethic, but a system engineered to place one on top of the other.

The mark of that system is visible at every level of American society, regardless of the quality of one’s choices. For instance, the unemployment rate among black college graduates (4.1 percent) is almost the same as the unemployment rate among white high-school graduates (4.6 percent). But that college degree is generally purchased at a higher price by blacks than by whites. According to research by the Brookings Institution, African Americans tend to carry more student debt four years after graduation ($53,000 versus $28,000) and suffer from a higher default rate on their loans (7.6 percent versus 2.4 percent) than white Americans. This is both the result and the perpetuator of a sprawling wealth gap between the races. White households, on average, hold seven times as much wealth as black households—a difference so large as to make comparing the “black middle class” and “white middle class” meaningless; they’re simply not comparable. According to Patrick Sharkey, a sociologist at New York University who studies economic mobility, black families making $100,000 a year or more live in more-disadvantaged neighborhoods than white families making less than $30,000. This gap didn’t just appear by magic; it’s the result of the government’s effort over many decades to create a pigmentocracy—one that will continue without explicit intervention."

John said...

I was just thinking... Imagine what our children would grow up like if we repeatedly told them:
- You are a victim
- You need and are owed financial assistance
- White people hate and want to harm you
- Vote for me and I will give you stuff

My guess is that it would not be pretty.

John said...

FYI I wrote my last comment before reading yours.

As for voter ID laws, I am not sure about intent...

Sean said...

"As for voter ID laws, I am not sure about intent..."

You didn't review that long list of links I posted the last time we had this discussion? They openly brag about it!

But, in legal terms, intent doesn't even matter. If a law has a disparate impact on a protected class, it can still be struck down.

jerrye92002 said...

I'm glad to see the discussion moving beyond the infinitesimal number of blacks shot by white cops, which is what BLM does, and on to the broader question of the social pathologies of the "black community." Blacks have historically occupied the lower economic strata disproportionately, and prevented from rising by discrimination. After the Civil Rights Act, things should have gotten gradually better, and as far as "opportunity" goes, it has. Unfortunately, government actions like free handouts and free education have prevented many from seizing those opportunities. I like this:

"as the ability to advance economically is removed, everything else falls apart."

So, did anyone catch Trump's meeting with "black leaders" yesterday to talk about economic advancement and education? See: Amer-I-Can

And Obama makes it sound so simple: Every child has a father, so make the fathers responsible and most of these problems go away!

Jim Brown

jerrye92002 said...

The only voters "suppressed" by Voter ID laws are the dead, the imposters, the duplicates and the imaginary. And that is a different topic entirely. Voters have been voting "against their interest" for AGES, because their "interest" is defined by Democrats as wanting more free stuff, taken from others, rather than allowing them to succeed on their own.

Let us imagine for a moment that the black community turned out and voted overwhelmingly for a Black President that promised them the moon 8 years ago, only to find their situation worse now than when they voted for him. Are we going to blame Voter ID for that failure?

John said...

Jerry,
Of course the GOP is trying to limit Democratic voters... That is what both parties try to do and it is wrong... Thankfully the courts are there to keep them honest.

Now is it a racist conspiracy... I don't think so.

jerrye92002 said...

Of course Democrats would say that. Unfortunately for them they have never been able to prove it. And they are all WHITE Democrats, using their racist assumptions. Ask folks in Harlem (a recent "man in the street" survey found, and everybody said that getting ID was no problem, and resented white folks assuming they were too stupid to do so. The courts that rule against those laws do so on the basis of the same sort of racist assumptions. When they require that Democrats produce someone with actual standing, who cannot get an ID and wants to vote, the ruling goes the other way.

Sure would be good to move this to another thread.

John said...

I don't think I can take another thread dedicated to voter suppression...

No Duhhh... NY does not have a Voter ID Law. Of course he doesn't mind...

Sean said...

"That is what both parties try to do and it is wrong."

Can you give me an example of Democrats passing laws to limit Republican voters?

John said...

538 How Democrats Suppress the Vote

jerrye92002 said...

Sean, Democrats don't necessarily pass laws to suppress GOP turnout, but what do you call the massive negative attacks, the media polls showing the GOP doesn't have a chance, and calling the election (for the Democrat) while some polls are still open? And how about Democrat opposition to voter ID laws, while altering the election laws to allow MORE cheating? Just in Minnesota, we now have to accept a drivers license from California, for example, where illegal aliens can get one? And the law allowing college students to vote twice?