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I think we have pretty thoroughly disproved folks that thought it would "just go away" or that it was seasonal... You know who I mean. :-)
Maybe they still believe Trump when he says it is "dying out" as the hospital rooms fill down South. Or his claim that if we stopped test, we would have few COVID cases.
Remember to wear your mask when you can not socially distance.
MN Tracking Site
SD Tracking Site
OK Tracking Site
I think we have pretty thoroughly disproved folks that thought it would "just go away" or that it was seasonal... You know who I mean. :-)
Maybe they still believe Trump when he says it is "dying out" as the hospital rooms fill down South. Or his claim that if we stopped test, we would have few COVID cases.
Remember to wear your mask when you can not socially distance.
32 comments:
Wow. How to lie with statistics. And you do not even do that well; your cites do not support your conclusions. Of COURSE the number of cases goes up as we are testing like crazy. But the percent of positive tests keeps dropping. Overall hospitalizations and deaths are dropping. Any reason why this coronavirus, like all the other coronavirii that plague us during "cold and flu season" should be radically different?
the real numbers
Yes things are progressing quite nicely in most States that had stay at home orders, encouraged masks, etc.
Now you can blame "testing" all you want... :-) But unfortunately hospitalization numbers are just not negotiable
I am most concerned about TX since my sister is moving to Austin with her family
And to answer your question
The Florida Trendline looks real bad to
I assume first the cases go up, then the hospitalizations go up and finally the deaths increase. :-(
As does the AZ data
"we don't know but we can speculate" does not answer my question. Simple logic says this coronavirus should act just like all the rest. The only thing "novel" about it is we haven't isolated the vaccine yet. Meanwhile some have discovered a "narrow band" of temperature and humidity in which it thrives, someone else discovers that some people have a natural immunity to it based on having had a similar illness in the past, and the numbers that can't be changed by testing or by precautionary hospitalization (but can be by mis-classification) are generally declining. as summer comes, and despite re-opening the economy.
Sure, the media is going to blow any statistic they can find into a major disaster, but that's what they do. Heaven help us if they would ever find any good news to report.
Apparently you avoided looking at the sources I provided again... (ie hospitalization trends in 3 Southern States)
"Jerry.... The Confirmation Bias is Strong in you Old Sky Walker." :-)
In summary... The NIH piece also says...
- No herd immunity, No Vaccine, No Seasonality Effect
- Only choice for now: Distancing and Masks.
"In all three scenarios, their models showed that climate only would become an important seasonal factor in controlling COVID-19 once a large proportion of people within a given community are immune or resistant to infection. In fact, the team found that, even if one assumes that SARS-CoV-2 is as sensitive to climate as other seasonal viruses, summer heat still would not be enough of a mitigator right now to slow its initial, rapid spread through the human population. That’s also clear from the rapid spread of COVID-19 that’s currently occurring in Brazil, Ecuador, and some other tropical nations.
Over the longer term, as more people develop immunity, the researchers suggest that COVID-19 may likely fall into a seasonal pattern similar to those seen with diseases caused by other coronaviruses. Long before then, NIH is working intensively with partners from all sectors to make sure that safe, effective treatments and vaccines will be available to help prevent the tragic, heavy loss of life that we’re seeing now.
Of course, climate is just one key factor to consider in evaluating the course of this disease. And, there is a glimmer of hope in one of the group’s models. The researchers incorporated the effects of control measures, such as physical distancing, with climate. It appears from this model that such measures, in combination with warm temperatures, actually might combine well to help slow the spread of this devastating virus. It’s a reminder that physical distancing will remain our best weapon into the summer to slow or prevent the spread of COVID-19. So, keep wearing those masks and staying 6 feet or more apart!"
Yes, you found what somebody /says/ about the disease. That doesn't make it true. Have you seen what the MN models show, where everybody in MN should be infected by now, and we have 50,000 dead? "It appears from this model..." Just like with climate, you have to look at the actual data rather than the models.
Again, distinguish between an increase in /cases/, caused by more testing, with fatalities, which are NOT altered by the amount of (pre-death) testing. Your AZ data clearly shows a decreasing trend. We don't have to know the cause, just the reality.
Oh, and I point out that temperature is not the only factor involved. Countries south of the equator are entering their winter season, but some of them also have highly concentrated populations like NYC. Last I heard, that if you take NYC and environs out of the US total, we come in like 27th in the world. In SD, take out Fargo and you reduce 92% of deaths.
Jerry,
Why are you so invested in denying the data?
Oh well, I should used to it by now.
What the heck data are you looking at, that I am denying? The chart of deaths clearly shows a concentration--over half-- in the Phoenix urban area, a peak in deaths back in early May and an obvious decline since then. QED.
Select Hospital COVID-19 Specific Metrics
Remember:
0. Social distancing and masks stop
1. 2 weeks later cases spike
2. Hospitalizations spike
3. 2 weeks later deaths spike
You are currently trying to drive using the rear view mirror.
Except cases don't matter.
And deaths are declining, not "spiking." Look at the data. Yesterday MN had FOUR.
Do you have ADHD?
How did you jump back to MN?
A state that successfully used lock downs to bend the curve?
We had moved on to Florida, Texas and Arizona who are now experiencing record hospitalizations after opening up their states.
Even though it is definitely Summer there.
Look at AZ deaths. They are declining.
And MN was successful? Wildly so. We avoided almost 49,000 deaths, according to the model, and we never came close to using our hospital capacity, to the point we had to lay off hospital staff and people like cancer patients could not be treated. How many deaths did the lockdowns CAUSE? And again, deaths are declining here, as summer comes. Coincidence? Maybe, but I still believe that all concern for COVID-19 will suddenly disappear on Nov. 3.
Look where you want, but overall deaths from the virus are declining, having peaked in April or May. Cases may rise because of testing, hospitalizations will rise in places where temperatures were warm already, but you are beating a statistical dead horse. Why? I've heard many assertions that Gov. Walz is prolonging the "crisis" and lockdown for purely political purposes. Are you?
We will talk in 2 weeks...
Remember:
0. Social distancing and masks stop
1. 2 weeks later cases spike
2. Hospitalizations spike
3. 2 weeks later deaths spike
Based on what? Walz "turning the dials" or the overall US experience? Overall, we could easily start two weeks ago, because even in MN, with all the lockdowns in place, deaths were declining, and continue to decline. Are you HOPING that lots of people die?
Based on science and virus progression...
First you get the virus
Then you show symptoms ~1 week later
Then if symptoms are bad, you go to hospital
Then you get better or worse.
Then you live or die...
So hospitalizations spiking indicate bad things.
Only if you die. We were supposed to be reducing hospitalizations due to the virus. Those NEVER got out of control, and are not out of control now; in most places going down. These shutdowns probably made a difference in the first two weeks. Since then, they have done more harm than good, fed by faulty models, media hype, and power-mad governors. Hospitals are /supposed/ to be treating sick people. That's what they do. They are not "bad things." Death, that's a bad thing, especially if it could be avoided with reasonable measures. But MN has the highest percentage of deaths in the nation among the elderly in assisted living. Again, will you be happier if lots of people die?
MN is under control for now...
TX Hospitals at Risk
Arizona Hospitals at Risk
FL Hospitals at Risk
Definitely NOT "just going away" with warm weather. :-(
Do you read your own cites? You are worried about hospitalizations. It says this:
"Banner is still treating patients who were initially hospitalized in April and early May, he said, and there are also more patients hospitalized for other medical needs and previously postponed surgeries."
"Definitely"? Does anybody get a cold or flu in the summer? We are coping with this "pandemic"-- you know, a "panic" with a "Dem" in the middle of it? Can you face reality for what it is, and accept what it is not?
We will check back in a couple weeks and see how the death toll is going.
I am betting it will be increasing.
You are wrong as of today. Personally I think the old stock market adage applies. "A trend will continue until it changes."
I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it looking at the rate increase in hospitalizations. :-(
Let's hope they are young healthy and can beat it.
Oops! It seems I was wrong. Hospitalizations have indeed increased of late, just as was predicted, in all those cities where the protests took place. Again today, I saw a news report that while hospitalizations are increasing, the death toll continues to go down. In hospital are those young and otherwise healthy enough to beat the illness.
"...just as was predicted, in all those cities where the protests took place."
Still a purveyor of fake news, I see.
Moose
Moose,
Didn't you here about all those big protests in the Bible / Sun Belt? :-)
Unfortunately in this case, the deaths will come and the reality of the situation will be undeniable.
Though of course Jerry will strive to deny or distract like his hero. :-)
Yeah... These must be the BLM hot spots...
New daily cases are rising in 29 places, including:
STATE AVG. THIS WEEK PER 100K % CHANGE VS. 2 WEEKS AGO
Oklahoma 372 new cases/day 9 per 100K +284%
Florida 3,756 new cases/day 17 per 100K +205%
Arizona 2,750 new cases/day 38 per 100K +157%
Texas 4,348 new cases/day 15 per 100K +156%
Idaho 110 new cases/day 6 per 100K +134%
South Carolina 1,049 new cases/day 20 per 100K +119%
Kansas 184 new cases/day 6 per 100K +96%
OK, maybe I'm wrong again. In MN, hospitalizations have decreased, despite the protests. But deaths have been in the single digits for the last 4 days.
My hero is Diogenes.
Oh, and "cases" still isn't the relevant fact. More testing >== more cases found. And are we hospitalizing people "just because" they test positive?
Source please...
Here is a wonderful source.
"New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will make travelers from nine states with high infection rates to quarantine for 14 days. It's a reversal from the early pandemic weeks when Florida, Texas, South Carolina imposed a similar quarantine on travelers from New York and the two neighboring states.
This week, both Connecticut and Arizona conducted 1.7 tests per 1,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins University's testing tracker. Yet, while Connecticut had 1.3% positive, Arizona had 22.1% positive for COVID-19.
Arizona hospitals on Tuesday reported the highest-ever number of beds and ventilators used for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients. "
And maybe they are just putting more people in the ICU for the fun of it.
Source, MN health dept. It appears there is a definite "wave," but that it is occurring at different places at different times, and with different levels of contagiousness and mortality. For MN, it appears we are well over the hump.
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