Friday, October 14, 2016

Are Millenials Doomed?

Here is a depressing article if you are a Millenial.  MSN Why Millenials Are Doomed Though I guess I can see some truth in it.  My thoughts:
  • Per my last post, the government is continual taking more from our pay checks to give to Public Employees, People who make poor choices, etc. In 1916 a young person controlled ~90% of the money they received for working, now it is down to ~63% and who knows where it will go given our HUGE National Debt / growing Liberal policies. And yes people do receive some of their money back from Medicare and Social Security, but they are still wealth transfer programs to some extent.
  • The stock market and housing market are up right now so future gains will be lower on money invested today. Though if the Millenials started investing in their 401K and a home in 2009, they are very happy today.
  • There will be downward pressure on US compensation in our very global economy. We are currently highly compensated relative to many workers in the world, the USA keeps raising taxes to give more money to poor performing citizens (ie welfare, Medicaid, etc) and the USA becomes more regulated every year. (ie financials, EPA, etc) And the American consumers simply do not want to pay for high wages, high give aways and/or stringent regulations, they want low cost, high quality, great features, etc so they spend their money on products and services from lower cost countries. 
  • Finally, I do think that younger people do have an incessant drive shiny things.  Be it that newest phone, best data plan, Mexican vacation, personal passion, etc.  It will take a lot of self discipline to live cheap, save lots and invest well.
  • On the upside, I remember that every generation has faced challenges and think the smart, hard working and self disciplined Millenials who get/stayed married will do just fine.

14 comments:

Sean said...

"the USA keeps raising taxes to give more money to poor performing citizens"

Well, not really. Federal taxes as a percent of GDP have fluctuated between 15% and 20% since WW2, and state and local taxes as a percent of GDP have crept up less than 2% of GDP over the last 40 years.

Now, it's true there may be a reckoning down the road because we've chose to exempt Baby Boomers from having to pay to fix the mess they've created, but it's certainly not the case that we've gone nutso with raising taxes.

Anonymous said...

I do think that younger people do have an incessant drive shiny things.

I don't think this is limited to young people. It's a quality that virtually defines Donald Trump.

--Hiram

John said...

You picked that forty year time frame very carefully, good going. But if you look back a little further you see a different story.
Revenue Graphs

And we can only go so long without raising taxes or cutting spending to pay the MASSIVE bill we owe for the EXCESSIVE spending we have been doing for the past 40 years...
National Debt vs GDP

And unfortunately that burden will be passed to our kids...

John said...

Hiram,
At least you are consistent with your comments, though the name has changed... It used to be Romney you were obsessed with...

Sean said...

"You picked that forty year time frame very carefully, good going. But if you look back a little further you see a different story."

The 40-year time frame is relevant because it reflects the working life of a person who's about to retire. Yes, we can go back and say things have changed over 70 or 100 years or 150 years. Well, it ain't just the tax code that has changed over that time. Everything is society has changed over that time. To say that we're "less free" now than 100 years ago just because our tax burden is higher is absurd.

John said...

Here is a good graphic that shows our 40+ year desire to spend more than we pay? And it is not just the Boomers who are screwing our children...

And our interest cost is already substantial... Imagine if rates jump...

John said...

"less free" simple examples.

FICA is MANDATORY... It tells you how much you will save, where you will invest it, what you will get back, when you will get it back, etc.

More taxes for public, special and higher education means you have less money to put aside for the education of your child to be used as you wish at organizations that you think are effective/efficient.

More taxes to pay for welfare and Medicaid means that you have less money available to donate to charities that you believe are effective / efficient. And charities that make people change / improve rather than promoting continued poor choices.

These are not necessarily good or bad. But they certainly reduce our personal control.

Anonymous said...

It used to be Romney you were obsessed with...

No doubt in four years time, it will be the next Republican nominee for president, I will be obsessed with.

Actually, I try not to think of Trump too much. There is so little there, there. What I do obsess a lot on is national decline. How in 1990, our senate and we as a nation were able to consider and act on a controversial Supreme Court nomination, something we can't do now. In 1990, nobody would have even given Trump a second thought as a president, and this was before his serial bankruptcies. Now, today, one of our major political figures has with apparent seriousness, put him forward as a nominee for president. Something is fundamentally wrong with a nation that would do that.

--Hiram

Sean said...

Framing "freedom" in terms of tax burden is incredibly myopic.

John said...

Sean,
Tell that to the Millenials as they have less and less money to spend on things that they personally think are important because their Parents / Grandparents got the country deeply in debt and promoted a lot of free loaders that need to be fed/cared for.

Sean said...

Do you think women and non-white millenials would rather go back to your oh-so-free America of 100 years ago when they couldn't vote or pursue the education or career they wanted without discrimination?

John said...

I think they would like the social freedoms

AND more financial freedom.

One is not reliant on or related to the other.

Sean said...

Doesn't most polling of millennials shows they favor maintenance (or even expansion) of the social safety net as opposed to cutting it? Maybe you shouldn't project your opinions on to them...

John said...

Back to one of my favorite sayings...

"If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain"

I have great faith that most of them will learn. Unfortunately not enough of them based on our ever spending more than we can afford the last ~60 years... And our ever promoting more dependent people over the last ~50 years.