Wednesday, April 29, 2020

COVID Death Toll and Mortality Rate?

The numbers ARE WRONG...  And this is to be expected... :-)

I didn't understand how complicated this was until I dug into it...  Here are some of the things I learned:
  • People die at pretty consistent rates in the USA.  And the statisticians and tell us what "normal is".
  • Currently there are more deaths (~15,000+) in March and April than can be accounted for by what we know today.
  • These could be uncounted COVID deaths, increased "depression" deaths, people who died because they avoided going to the hospital for fear of COVID, increased murders, etc.  Or died of boredom for all we know.  All we know is that COVID or the lock down orders CHANGED something.
  • Each State apparently decides how to report cause of death... If a stable older person who has diabetes / high blood pressure and dies while fighting COVID.
  • It is possible that many more Americans have had COVID than are currently being reported
In summary:
  • the death count from COVID is likely somewhat higher than what is being reported.
  • the mortality rate from having COVID is likely somewhat lower than what is being reported. 
  • anyone who says they KNOW these 2 numbers today is lying. :-)
The questions are:
  • with the data we have, what decision will we make?
  • how much is protecting the old, ill, healthcare workers and unlucky from COVID from a natural virus worth?
  • what is the cost of lock downs, bailouts, business failures, etc and who is paying it?
  • how do we openly and calmly discuss these issues and make choices / take actions?
How accurate is the COVID Death Count (ABC)
US Death Toll Spikes Inexplicably High (The Hill)
How Accurate is COVID Death Toll? (Med Page)
CDC Provisional Death Count
John's Hopkins COVID Mortality
US COVID Deaths (Our World in Data)

COVID's other Casualties (Reuters)
Are stroke sufferers silent victims (UT)
Is COVID causing Strokes (Forbes)
COVID antibody tests, accuracy and importance (Wired)
Social Media Death Toll Claims? (Fact Check)

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Far Right Lives in Fear

A FB acquaintance posted something that made stop and think.  My conclusion is that many of these folks live in constant fear.

Let's think about some of them:
  • Fear that our democratically elected government will somehow be over run with tyrants that want to do something "Bad" to them.
  • Fear that someone with a "bigger gun" is out to harm them.
  • Fear that a vaccine will harm them.
  • Fear that a mask or gloves may harm them.
  • Fear that a test may identify them as having COVID 19.
  • Fear of a loss of personal control in their lives.
  • Fear that people of different religions / cultures will somehow harm them and their way of life.
No wonder they are angry and rebellious, I am mean they are apparently scared to death.

Being scared is something I can deal with.  What makes me frustrated is that instead of accepting and dealing with their fears like normal adults, they seem to insist on wrapping themselves in the flag and insist that they are fighting for "freedom".

The challenge I posed to them is what happens when your "freedom" harms other American citizens?  I mean we know for certain that:
  • Irresponsible gun owners who do not keep their weapons secure indirectly cause a lot of deaths in the USA. These people either have their weapon stolen or sell it to questionable citizens.
  • Rapid fire large clip rifles that have little to no practical use in hunting or personal protection are the weapon of choice for mass murders due to their very lethal capabilities.
  • Large groups of people not being vaccinated leads to outbreaks of various really nasty and deadly viruses.
  • And in this case we have a nasty virus that can be transmitted for up to 2 weeks before that carrier shows symptoms.  And these folks want to congregate in large groups, not wear masks, not wear gloves, etc.
I guess my point / epiphany is that these folks seem to believe they are brave heroes who are fighting a valiant fight.  Whereas to me it seems that they are actually really scared people who are willing to sacrifice the weak citizens of the USA to make themselves feel safer.... :-(  Thoughts?


Monday, April 20, 2020

Get Employers Out of Healthcare?

Hiram's Guest Post
"I support universal and affordable health care. Along with support for public schools, it's basic to why I am a Democrat. When I do that, am I trading in fear? I am sure you can make a strained argument to that effect, but I guess is just don't see it in those terms. 
Something I have long complained about, arguably the fear I often trade in, is the linking of health care insurance to employment. It's one of the truly dumb ideas. What always terrified me, what fueled by hysteria on the issue, was the possibility that a pandemic would hit in a time of widespread unemployment. We are seeing that now. The problem with Democrats on this issue is that we just did not monger fear effectively enough."

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Why Doesn't FOX Fact Check Trump?

Do they fear truth, data and facts?
Fox News Conference Coverage
CNN News Conference Coverage

Some of the things I find most annoying:
  • Blaming the previous administration.  You have been President for over 3 years and own this.  Can you imagine a CEO or Head Coach being in a job for 3 years and blaming his predecessor for the current processes, staffing, inventory?
  • Past the the worst of the crisis?  Now I understand that the stay home orders are working in California and New York, however there are apparently still 4,000 people dying each day. And more hot spots popping up regularly.  Still seems like a crisis to me.
  • Comparing our results to Spain, Italy and France like that is a "success"? That is like saying that we got 8th place in a tournament with 10 teams.  Even though we are the wealthiest nation on Earth and spend much more on healthcare than those countries. "Yippeee... We are #8..."  We would fire a coach if they said that.
  •  No one saw this coming...  Really?  Bush and Obama both experienced similar and set up organizations to watch for them.  Oh yeah, you fired all those people.
So what do you think:
  • Is FOX scared of Trump's Bully Pulpit?
  • Is FOX scared that their viewers will stop watching if they provided facts and data?
  • Would they or were they this gentle with Obama when he made statements that did not match the record or the current data?
I am fine with Trump opening the country faster as long as we hold him accountable for the additional dead that may result. (nursing home deaths) And is it too much to ask that the press keep our politicians honest?  Or at least report when they are not.

Tap the image to expand it.

Thursday, April 16, 2020

Leadership Choices

Directive or Supportive?
Now I know you may find this hard to believe given my strong views and aggressive style, but I am a HUGE proponent of using Servant / Supportive Leadership as often as it makes sense.  That is a large part of why I left People Management and went into Project Management.

The nice thing about Project Management is that I get to focus nearly exclusively on helping my customers and team members.  Where as when I was in People Management I had to deal often with Directive Leaders and peers who were interested mostly in making themselves look good, controlling people, managing metrics / measures, etc.

Now there is a time for both Leadership and Parenting Styles.  However if you do a good job of building up your team members, children, customers, etc, there should be less need for the Directive style.  [SEE COMMENTS FOR MORE EXCELLENT LINKS :-)]

Now I am sure you have worked or dealt with both styles.
  • The Supportive Leader thought about the big goals and how they could help the personnel, children or customers meet them.  They focused on defining general expectations with the help of the stakeholders, coaching, training, answering questions, building relationships, delegating, staying out of the details, etc. They know that true power and capability comes from helping others succeed.
  • The Directive Leader thought about the specific goals, defining them, measuring them, and punishing people who failed to attain them. The customer needs came second to the measures and the employees feared accountability and micro-management. People therefore worked to hide problems, sabotage other departments (ie siblings), etc. They believe they are smarter and more capable than everyone "below" them.
Now remember that this is not some Liberal Lovefest thing... A Supportive Leader can still have metrics, use measurements and fire people.  They will do it for the good of the customers and team though. Not to assuage their ego.

Now I admit that I am human and can slip to the controlling, angry, demanding, micromanaging side at times. (especially in crisis moments) But I truly try to return to ASAP. :-)  Thoughts?

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Let's Get Ready to Rumble

Obama poised to help turbocharge Biden's fundraising FOX News
Leftward Ho? Politico
Of course the big questions are how do the DEMs and Biden:
  1. get the Far Left out to campaign and vote
  2. not turn off moderate voters who are unhappy with Trump (ie like me)
  3. win enough purple states to win the election?
I pray that who ever wins, wins both the popular and electoral votes. To me that would indicate that the DEMs have learned to not ignore the fly over states...  Or Trump may have reached out beyond his base...  I know...  I am a dreamer!!!! :-)

Monday, April 13, 2020

Stock Market vs Unemployment?

Trump vs Fauci

Trump Lashes Out at Fauci

What Fauci is Likely to Experience

The Fauci Interview Transcript

Personally I think this may be one of Trump's biggest mistakes so far, though I am certain that Fox News and Trump True Believers will be okay with it.

But for the vast majority of Americans Dr Fauci has been the voice of logic, truth and reassurance during these uncertain times.  That and his working with 6 Presidents on many disasters.

So Trump could have:

  1. accepted the very rationale statement below
  2. agreed that the choice to not close things down earlier costs lives
  3. explained that it was a complicated trade off

Instead he chooses to attack one of the most respected men in America for speaking his truth.
TAPPER: Do you think lives could have been saved if social distancing, physical distancing, stay-at-home measures had started third week of February, instead of mid-March? 
FAUCI: You know, Jake, again, it's the what would have, what could have.
It's -- it's very difficult to go back and say that. I mean, obviously, you could logically say, that if you had a process that was ongoing, and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives. Obviously, no one is going to deny that.
 
But what goes into those kinds of decisions is -- is complicated. But you're right. I mean, obviously, if we had, right from the very beginning, shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. 
But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then.
By the way, the press on the right is already working hard to discredit Dr Fauci by cherry picking quote from January.  Unfortunately for them...  Apparently the NIH keeps an excellent record of where Fauci spoke and what he said. Apparently he has worked with politicians before. :-)


Saturday, April 11, 2020

Forget Social Distancing?

Is COVID 19 just the flu? Here is a gift from Jerry...
I know you are going to believe what you want to believe, but I keep trying.
CORONAGATE: The Truth Emerges
Please remember that Jerry thinks anything the government does is suspect. Apparently even if Trump is the one leading the charge.

On related notes, here are some updates regarding Sweden. They tried just letting it go rampant... It looks like they are rethinking that plan. By the way, they only have about 10 million citizens.

Is Sweden coming to the lock down side?
Our World in Data COVID 19
MinnPost MN Curves

Sweden Death Curve...
Sweden is getting really dark...

Impact of Cleaner Air?

Will humans decide they like it?

An India video that is a little misleading because in November the farmers were burning the fields also, but it explains pretty well the huge change.  And on the lighter side.

So what I am pondering, will people from all over the world seeing what their lives could be like without all the fossil fuel pollution actually help encourage them to demand faster improvement?

The reality is that many of them have never lived without air pollution that was ever increasing. (ie it was normal)  Now they are learning that clean air should be the "normal".

Of course on the other hand we have the Trump EPA voting for dirtier air and more fuel usage...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

Trump, COVID, Facts, Data

It is unlikely Trump True Believers will be daring enough to face the facts about how Trump enabled this health and economic disaster, but here goes. Remember that you can touch the images to zoom.

Please comment if you have anything to add or corrections that should be made.


A couple more thoughts. Maybe the WHO should have been more proactive, however the reality is that White House personnel were very aware of the huge potential for disaster as of mid-January. (maybe even mid-Dec)  Therefore Trump owns this disaster no matter where else he tries to point to.

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

A Double Bottom or Not?

Mark Mobius Predicts Double Bottom

Okay stock prognosticators, I missed the first bottom since I was looking for less than 18,000 to start buying. And our spend thrift deficit drivers screwed that up.

The good news is I am still even...  Just no wins or losses... :-) :-(

Mark above thinks I will have another chance... (well unless we keep stealing TRILLIONS of DOLLARS from our kids and grand kids)  What do you think?

One more question for those who like their tax cuts and spending increases, would you take a mortgage out in your children's name so you could live better today and leave them with the bill?

Trump and Congress

Want to SPEND more.  Now I have been venting about the  HUGE DEFICITS Trump and crew have been generating for years.  But give me a break, another bailout bill?

Are these Idiot Politicians Republicans who believe in small government and letting the markets manage the chaos, or are they actually big government Democrats?

Of course the hypocrisy is that they blamed Obama for big spending in 2009 and they are dwarfing that bailout.  Thoughts?

Monday, April 6, 2020

Inspector General Fired

for fulfilling his legal Obligations.    Link 2

It is definitely a bad time for whistle blowers and our country.

And for Captains who care for the safety of their crew.

And for our tax dollars...

It is a sad time in our country when retaliation and refusal be transparent reign supreme. :-(

I am not as frustrated with Trump as I am with citizens who support these behaviors.  Especially since they would be up at arms if a DEM President pulled have of this stuff.

Sunday, April 5, 2020

How To End Poverty:Rebuttal

I was on FB and found someone who had thoughts regarding my ideas for winning the war on poverty.
  1. Weaken or eliminate the Public Employee Unions. Their primary purpose is to ensure the senior employees make the most money, receive the best positions and are secure in their employment. These goals are NOT aligned with cost effectively getting the most help to the people who need it. Pay for performance, not years and degrees.
  2. Set hard knowledge attainment and/or poverty reduction targets that the bureaucracy managers must hit, and replace them if they don't. No more of these employment contracts where Superintendents get huge buy out clauses when they fail. Pay for performance, not degrees.
  3. Make Long Acting Reversible Contraception and the Morning After Pill free and readily available for all. NO baby should be born unless the Baby Maker(s) are 100% wanting the child and feel prepared to care for it. (ie committed to being responsible capable Parents)
  4. If a proven irresponsible Baby Maker who is on welfare (ie Angel Adams) gets pregnant. She should be forced to abort or give the Baby up for adoption. And if this happens more than once, her tubes should be tied.
  5. The welfare payments and service should be set up to make recipients work, learn, mature and improve their self sufficiency.
  6. The male Baby Makers must bear the consequences of their behavior. The female Baby Maker must name the Father so the State can ensure the required child support is paid. The cost may be higher than the money received, but the "free loading Baby Daddy" behavior must be dissuaded.
  7. The State must ensure that Baby Makers and the Babies receive training, care, etc until they become a functional family. (ie Parents and Kids) This includes mandatory Parenting classes, Early Childhood Education, Inexpensive quality childcare, etc. Many of the Baby Makers are in this position because their role models were Baby Makers (ie not Parents). Someone has to train them what it means to be a Parent.
Here are Ann's Thoughts: Thanks for your postings.  I actually do enjoy debating these issues as they are near and dear to my heart.  It is particularly fun to do so with someone who is respectful.  I appreciate that.  I did go read your blog post and will comment on my thoughts here.  I don't like the language of "baby makers" vs "parents" but I understand what you are trying to say.  I have loads of more specific ideas about how to help children but here are my comments about your proposals.  It is clear to me that we both care deeply about the welfare of children and families.

Item 1
I am not interested in eliminating unions.  It is not my area of expertise either.  However, the most recent union negotiations in St. Paul from the teachers in that district were not motivated by just having higher ups make more money.  I spoke with teachers in that district and they did not have the tools needed to do their jobs.  Namely, they wanted more specialized help for children (i.e. social workers, therapists, SPED teachers).  I think you and I probably agree about some changes that need to be made in education, given that I did read more of your blog.

Item 2
I agree 100%

Item 3
I agree 100%.  Actually, for the most part, much of these services are already free to low income people.  What I see as a therapist is that some people who have never had love in their lives have children in the hopes that the child will love them, not because they want to be parents.  We need to address this psychologically not by sterilization.  Forced sterilization is a human rights violation in my opinion.  I know you want a simple solution...but there is not one.  My best solution is to make long-term, trauma informed therapy free for anyone who wants it.  We need to move away from short-term mental health treatment as it doesn't work.  Psychological change seems to be what you want for people.  That takes time and effort.

Item 4
I disagree wholeheartedly.  Our country has a long history of slavery, racism, forced sterilization of black women, and forced sterilization of women who are deemed unintelligent and/or poor.  This is wholly against my values as an American.  Slavery is not something we are out from under at this time.  We see disparities in health and well-being to this day in many communities of black/brown people that are a direct result of slavery and genocide.  This is something that happens around the world as well.  Also, it is interesting to me that you do not mention the fathers being sterilized.  Of course I think that is also abhorrent, but is interesting that you want the women to bear this burden.  Link 1  Link 2

Item 5
It is already set up this way.  Link 1  Here is an overview:
PRWORA replaced AFDC with TANF and ended entitlement to cash assistance for low-income families, meaning that some families may be denied aid even if they are eligible. Under TANF, states have broad discretion to determine who is eligible for benefits and services. In general, states must use funds to serve families with children, with the only exceptions related to efforts to reduce non-marital childbearing and promote marriage. States cannot use TANF funds to assist most legal immigrants until they have been in the country for at least five years. TANF sets forth the following work requirements in order to qualify for benefits:[19]
  1. Recipients (with few exceptions) must work as soon as they are job ready or no later than two years after coming on assistance.
  2. Single parents are required to participate in work activities for at least 30 hours per week. Two-parent families must participate in work activities 35 or 55 hours a week, depending upon circumstance.
  3. Failure to participate in work requirements can result in a reduction or termination of benefits to the family.
  4. States, in fiscal year 2004, have to ensure that 50 percent of all families and 90 percent of two-parent families are participating in work activities. If a state meets these goals without restricting eligibility, it can receive a caseload reduction credit. This credit reduces the minimum participation rates the state must achieve to continue receiving federal funding.
While states are given more flexibility in the design and implementation of public assistance, they must do so within various provisions of the law:
  1. Provide assistance to needy families so that children may be cared for in their own homes or in the homes of relatives; 
  2. end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits by promoting job preparation, work, and marriage; 
  3. prevent and reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock pregnancies and establish annual numerical goals for preventing and reducing the incidence of these pregnancies; 
  4. and encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families.

Item 6
Already required by TANF.  Every parent should have an equal responsibility for raising children, unless that parent is abusive or neglectful.

Item 7
I agree 100%

Saturday, April 4, 2020

Trump Attacks 3M

3M says he could be making things worse. VOX

Slammed by Trump, 3M says exports should continue  NPR

Trump Statements False FOX Busn

Will other countries retaliate NYT

Being a big fan of 3M and the free market, and understanding that they are a global company with a global supply chain...  Have these GOP folk lost their mind?

And worse yet they are trying to cut off supplies that are needed by our allies?

Thoughts?

Then there is the irony that the CDC is recommending masks and Trump saying he will refuse to lead by example.  It sounds like the discussions were interesting.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Trump Admins Early Decisions

Delayed the COVID response.

Remember the old saying. "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." :-(
"When Bolton became Trump’s national security adviser in 2018, he quickly moved to disband the White House National Security Council’s Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense, which President Barack Obama set up after the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak to lead federal coordination and preparation for disease outbreaks."