Riots: Good for Both Sides

And Bad for Tax Payers, the Local Businesses and the citizens. 

My Liberal FB friends are LIVID about the US Federal government "taking over" cities.Some comparing it to Germany invading Poland pre-WWII.  Here is how the conversation usually goes. (I am the Green text)

Stop the occupation of Portland

Now that one made me smile. 🙂 Apparently the Portland Metro area has a population of 2,478,810 people....
The Federal government has sent ~200 law enforcement personnel there and their efforts are focused in a ~6 block area centered around the Federal Court House...
How do you see that as an "occupation"? 🙂

The reality is that the Protesters and the White House are getting what they want out of this situation. They both want cameras, news and social media focused on them.

The Conservatives will use it as propaganda regarding the lawlessness of Liberal cities.

The Liberals will use it as propaganda regarding the excesses of the law enforcement system.


When in reality the protesters could relocate 5 blocks away and there would be no conflict... Both sides are doing a wonderful job of manipulating the emotions of their bases. 🙂 As I see 
daily on the news and on my social media. 🙁

Have you heard Pres Trump (aka the art of the deal) trying to talk to the protesters? Sit down with them and listen to them and their demands? I haven’t. Until then, Portland is Iraq.

Why in the world should the US government be extorted by a small minority of our citizens?
10,000 of 2,478,810 people are protesting (some violently unfortunately) and demanding change...
Does that mean we should change? (ie capitulate)
If they want change, then tell them to get out and vote... And if they really want to change, tell them to figure out how to fix the root causes of the problem... (see below)

Unfortunately as long as Black and Hispanic males make up the majority of our country's gang members, all men in those population groups will suffer. So how do we get them out of the gangs? 

Do you think the protesters are willing to accept these simple facts?

Thoughts?

COVID Progression Diagram

Here is a new image I made for me to better communicate what should happen normally.

1. "People get the COVID virus" and show no symptoms and do not get tested. This is an unknown number.
2. People get tested for whatever reason and find that they have COVID.
3. About a week or 2 after getting the virus, some percentage end up in the hospital.
4. About 4 weeks later some percentage end up in the morgue.
5. Since a person can spread the virus to more than one person, COVID grows at a geometric rate. (ie. 1, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, etc) So the most important thing we can do is interrupt the spread early.

The question is how to best do this? COVID does not have feet, it needs people to travel. 🙂

Here is what the RED portion looks like so far...  Those are deaths each day.

And something on a funnier note.

COVID Symptoms to Death

About 3 to 4 weeks....  So I searched for a simple graph that showed this relationship after one of my FB Friends made light of Gov Walz's mask order when deaths are so low currently.  ("What is he trying to reduce it from 3 to 2 per day?" hahaha)

So as is often the case, I thought it provide an excellent teaching moment.

Actually if deaths are increasing you are taking actions about 5 or 6 weeks too late. 🙁 The graphic above and in my post below shows why they are taking action NOW and not waiting... 

Going from a "just reopening" positive test count of ~350/ day to ~550/day in a ~3 week period is NOT good. 

Waiting for deaths to start climbing is like waiting until you directional bore into a gas main... Things just blow up and you are screwed. 🙂 

So we know that cases are starting to climb rapidly again. What course of action would you recommend?

Of course you know that I never did get a better suggestion...  But I did decide to use the Texas Health data to put this together. (touch to zoom)

And if you did not hear the BAD news, we have been over 700 new cases per day this week...  You may be done with COVID, but it certainly is NOT done with us... :-(

Texas Data

Minnesota Data

Here is a new image I made for me to better communicate what should happen normally.

1. "People get the COVID virus" and show no symptoms and do not get tested. This is an unknown number.
2. People get tested for whatever reason and find that they have COVID.
3. About a week or 2 after getting the virus, some percentage end up in the hospital.
4. About 4 weeks later some percentage end up in the morgue.
5. Since a person can spread the virus to more than one person, COVID grows at a geometric rate. (ie. 1, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, etc) So the most important thing we can do is interrupt the spread early.

The question is how to best do this? COVID does not have feet, it needs people to travel. 🙂

Here Come the Masks

and we have only ourselves to blame.

We wanted our economy open, but many resisted doing 3 simple things:

1. Wash your hands often and well
2. Socially distance as much as possible
3. Wear a mask when not social distancing

Now I am no saint and violated the rules this weekend for our annual lake party. A gathering of about 25 friends and family at my parent's lake home. However we disinfected often and stayed outside most of the time.  I understand that sometimes exceptions occur...

I do NOT understand people who are resistant to wearing masks when they are inside public spaces and can not social distance? :-(

The unfortunate reality is that the MN COVID case number is climbing again and something needs to be done to slow it back down or stop it.  Any other ideas?

Remember the timing / process (see below):

1. More people get infected.
2. They pass it on to more people.
3. More people go the hospital ~2 weeks later
4. More people die about 2+ weeks later 

Walz COVID Videos

Rest In Peace

In a Luxury Refrigerated Trailer.

"U.S. deaths from the novel coronavirus rose by more than 1,000 on Tuesday, the biggest single-day increase since early June, according to a Reuters tally."

Trump flails in interview with Wallace

citing false and nonexistent data

I have to wonder what Trump was thinking allowing himself to be interviewed by one of the most thorough, professional and tenacious journalists of our time?

Here is the transcript...  sometimes the link does not work...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/transcript-fox-news-sunday-interview-with-president-trump

How Masks Protect Others

This is classic and hilarious...

People Dying = Change Reporting?

White House Strips CDC Of Data Collection Role For COVID-19 Hospitalizations NPR

The administration with the President who has the record for lying and a lack of transparency wants to move the death and hospitalization numbers closer to him.  What can go wrong with this?

Good thing I have a 98.64% chance of surviving the virus... :-)

Fun with COVID Numbers :-(

An "older than me" FB Friend posted a list of questions that a Grandma has before her Grand kids go back to school. Like if one child or teacher gets sick, what happens?  A COVID denier jumped in and said that it was a hoax.  So I did some math with the MN COVID Case / Death Numbers.

So due to my curiosity, I changed the MN data into more understandable numbers. 

With respect to questions above, most working age Teachers should be fine, though early retirement may be a good idea if they have any pre-existing health conditions. 

Almost all the kids will be fine, however you may want to keep them away from Grandma and Grandpa during the schools year. 

Of course if you are between 70 - 79.... 85 of you will make it but 15 of you will die... Sorry... 

Now since I am 54 and healthy... Should I wear my my mask when I can not social distance in an effort to stop the spread and protect you older folks? 

Or just say.... They are old anyway.... Maybe if they die earlier I can save the social security and medicare trust funds for me? 🙂 

By the way, the lives of you and my 80 year old Parents are worth the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask. 🙂

School Funding Flaws

For more evidence of racial bias, look no further than school funding  The Hill

In Most States, Poorest School Districts Get Less Funding  US News

Why White School Districts Have So Much More Money NPR

Jerry and I have been arguing about school funding over G2A The Poor Kids are Screwed :-( , so the above seemed timely.

If you did not know there is a 137 page guide to explain MN school funding.  It can be found on this MN House Education Research page.

Since MN is a Liberal state, the funding formula tries to compensate based on student demographic and community factors. However even with this, the wealthy communities can always pass referendums to give their children more.  Not necessarily a bad thing, except that as usual the rich kids get more and the poor kids get less..

Now if a poor kid lives in a conservative state, it can be much worse.

For example, in St. Louis County (Mo.) the school districts with the highest proportion of Black students - Jennings and Riverview - take in less than half the money per student compared to nearby Brentwood, which generated more than $21,000 per student in 2017-18.

The sad irony then is that the conservatives will blame the schools for not teaching as well in the poor communities while giving them half the money to teach very challenging students and families. (ie unlucky kids)

Now we know the answer to  helping the Unlucky Kids.

"In the short term, states can account for current spending levels when reducing education budgets. While across-the-board cuts that take the same amount of state funding away from all districts might sound fair, a better approach would be to cut from high-spending districts first and only then make broader adjustments after things have been leveled so existing inequities aren't exacerbated or ignored. 

Long term, more substantive school finance reforms are needed and the best solution is to untether the relationship between school funding and zip codes. Ideally, local property wealth should play no role in determining school funding levels. Dollars instead should be pooled at the state level and allocated transparently based on enrollment and student needs." The Hill

Unfortunately many folks are concerned about only their children and their schools. :-(  Which of course is very shortsighted given how much children who fail academically will cost us all over time.  (ie prison, welfare, lost  productivity gains, lost tax revenues, etc)

How to Lose More Votes 101

Attack one of the most trusted people in the USA.

The least trusted source of information regarding COVID 19 who:

• Ignored it and then promised it was under control
• And has lied repeatedly... including it will go away...

Apparently thinks trying to tear down a scientist with ~40 years of experience and knowledge is a good idea.  What idiots are going to swallow that?  Well I suppose the Trump "True Believers" and "Antivaxxer Nut Cases" will.  However I can not see it helping to win the votes of any rational person.

Disapproval Sky Rockets

Trump flails as audience dwindles and ratings plummet The Hill

Now I can understand the Disapproval numbers. I mean the man's inaction and lack of leadership has enabled death and economic destruction of nearly unparalleled severity.  Where as many other countries have things under relative control.

What puzzles me is that his Approval rate is still at 41.6%?

What are those people thinking?  Or are they simply NOT thinking?

Just a reminder: The EU has more citizens than the USA, and yet they have fewer dead, fewer cases, etc.  Exactly how bad does it need to get before the Trump Supporters open their eyes?

One more eye opener. US Deficit to Exceed Size of Whole Economy

Trumps Swampy Swamp

Continues as he frees Roger Stone. The Atlantic

"It is not illegal for a U.S. citizen to act or attempt to act as a go-between between a presidential campaign and a foreign intelligence agency, and Stone was not charged with any crime in conjunction with his Trump-WikiLeaks communications. But it’s a different story for the campaign itself. At a minimum, the Trump campaign was vulnerable to charges of violating election laws against receiving things of value from non-U.S. persons. Conceivably, the campaign could have found itself at risk as some kind of accessory to the Russian hacks— hacking being a very serious crime indeed. So it was crucially important to the Trump campaign that Stone keep silent and not implicate Trump in any way. 

Which is what Stone did. Stone was accused of—and convicted of—lying to Congress about his role in the WikiLeaks matter. Since Stone himself would have been in no legal jeopardy had he told the truth, the strong inference is that he lied to protect somebody else. Just today, this very day, Stone told the journalist Howard Fineman why he lied and who he was protecting. “He knows I was under enormous pressure to turn on him. It would have eased my situation considerably. But I didn’t.” You read that, and you blink. As the prominent Trump critic George Conway tweeted: “I mean, even Tony Soprano would have used only a pay phone or burner phone to say something like this.” Stone said it on the record to one of the best-known reporters in Washington. In so many words, he seemed to imply: I could have hurt the president if I rolled over on him. I kept my mouth shut. He owes me."

What are Trump Supporters thinking?  Are these self serving corrupt actions what they really are willing to accept in order to get some justices on the bench?

Have I told you lately how much I love Romney... "Romney blasts Trump's Stone commutation: 'Historic corruption'"

Who to Trust: CDC or Trump?

I vote for the CDC, not the guy who is so desperate to keep his job that he will say, do or spend anything.

I mean Trump is ready to beggar our children even further to try and buy more votes.

And more from "Doctor Trump"...

The good news is that at least SCOTUS reminded Trump that he is NOT an emperor and is therefore subject to US law.

Mary Trump Says

Trump is a "petty, pathetic little man – ignorant, incapable, out of his depth, and lost to his own delusional spin."

Seems about correct to me.  Thoughts?

Can GOP Nominate Anyone Else?

6 Numbers that Matter. NPR

• 58% — Trump's record disapproval
• 87% — Dissatisfaction with Direction of the Country
• 56% — Trump's (mis)handling of the coronavirus
• 67% — Trump making racial tensions worse
• 47% — Trump handling of economy
• 35% — Trump suburban support (was ~47% in 2016)

I apparently am not the lone GOPer who really dislikes that guy...

The Poor Kids are Screwed :-(

Adults are focused on Adults.

And unfortunately Adverse Childhood Experiences can and often do have long term negative and sometimes irreversible consequences.  So waiting until they are 5 is often too late. :-(

Yep, we got no where on How to Fix the Gaps.  However I did come across this interesting report by the Federal Reserve. Of course with both the Liberals and Conservatives fighting these, no wonder the kids still suffer. :-(

"A few common themes emerge across these successful school districts and schools. First, schools are given greater autonomy. In New Orleans, the schools under the OPSB were replaced with independent schools that were directly accountable to the state’s RSD. In New York, the Promise Academy was given autonomy in implementing its own community and school programs. The report on high-achieving disadvantaged districts finds that school principals were given autonomy to lead, which helped attract, develop, and retain high-quality teachers. 

Second, there is a focus on school quality. Research on the Promise Academy demonstrated that flexibility in teacher recruitment and retention combined with improvements in pedagogical methods led to better outcomes. A common theme in the high-performing disadvantaged districts study is a focus on school quality, including maximizing student learning time and using data and coaching to improve instruction. 

Third, support services for students and their families correlate with enhanced education outcomes. Students in the Boston Connects program receive individualized services that are associated with gains in achievement test scores and reductions in dropout rates. Meanwhile, providing a variety of student and family supports is a key strategy to advancing student outcomes in the Harlem Children’s Zone. 

These examples indicate that closing achievement gaps is challenging, but possible. "

It seems pretty obvious to me that the only way unlucky kids will thrive and succeed is if we help them even before they are born. ( ie Harlem Children's Zone, City Connects)  Unfortunately I have little hope that it will happen. :-(

We also watched an interesting bio-pic about Lucy Laney Elementary.  They seem to be trying to do everything right however the test scores are still poor.

Too bad we won't enforce these rights to help kids in America.  I wonder how our culture decided to let pretty much anyone make and keep babies until severe neglect or abuse occurred? It is so sad.

Trump Bets on White Grievance

Trump venting White grievance BI

'We've got to do something': Republican rebels come together to take on Trump The Guardian

I am pretty sure fighting for the Columbus Statues, Confederate statues and Bases named after Confederate Generals while 10's of thousand of Americans die is the way to win the election.  However then again I am not a "genius". :-)

WH Blocked CDC Briefings

WH Blocked CDC Briefings BI

Trump Claims COVID Under Control.  Really? WE

WH May Open Pandemic Team After Shuttering Last One The Hill

Racism Claims, Science and COVID RCP

TX Mask Order NPR

Are some TX hospitals full?  Forbes

Apparently Truth and Transparency are the first victims in war...  Especially with Trump in charge.

And even Conservative Governors can learn if enough constituents start dying and the hospitals are filling up.