Wednesday, January 11, 2017

The Coming Disaster

Laurie is being upbeat and positive again...
"I place a great deal of blame for the coming disaster on right wing media. And speaking of (one aspect of) the coming disaster:

Why Most Economists Are So Worried About Trump"
"It also puts economists at odds with the judgments of small-business owners. According to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, the balance of members who expect general business conditions to improve has moved drastically. In October, the pessimists who saw business conditions as likely to worsen outnumbered the optimists by seven percentage points; the latest survey from December shows that the optimists now outnumber the pessimists by 50 percentage points. It’s an extraordinary shift — one the association described as “stratospheric.”

I’m not quite sure how to reconcile these conflicting signals. One possibility is that Mr. Trump remains something of an unknown, and each group is filling in the blanks differently. Small businesses, pleased to see a businessman in the White House, might be tempted to believe the best. By contrast, there’s a reason that economics is called the dismal science, and few economists trust politicians — of either stripe — to get things right. Greater uncertainty gives economists a broader canvas upon which to project their pessimism.

But it may also be that these groups are describing different things. Businesses and markets care about profits. Economists focus on workers as well as the businesses they work for, on buyers as well as sellers, and on new firms as much as existing firms. Mr. Trump’s anti-regulatory zeal may help businesses but hurt workers; his anti-trade agenda could help sellers but hurt buyers; and his instincts to protect existing jobs may advantage existing businesses at the expense of the next generation of entrepreneurs.
Or perhaps the optimism of small-business owners is about what they think is most likely to happen, particularly in the short run. My conversations with economists revealed them to be more focused on the long run, particularly on the risk of really bad outcomes. By this view, the short-term optimism may be well placed, but should be juxtaposed with the possibility of a trade war, a catastrophic economic decision like defaulting on the national debt or a foreign policy disaster. Nearly every economist I spoke with said the risk of these left-tail events had risen.
Maybe why I rarely focus on what Economists think...  If Economists don't trust politicians...  Who trusts Economists? 

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Generally speaking Republican presidents are bad for workers and bad for businesses. Stocks perform much better under Democratic presidents. If you will recall, under the last Republican presidency, the economy staggered for four years before nearly collapsing altogether.

Republicans talk about regulation in general. That's their way of framing the problem while avoiding the issue, something clever politicians do the world over. It's a way of glossing over the fact that they really want to sell you tainted meat.

--Hiram

fred flintstone said...

The stock market is at historic highs. <a href = "https://www.uschamber.com/speech/2017-state-american-business-address> The US Chamber of Commerce is giddy </a>

<i>At this moment of significant transition for our country, the American business community is optimistic about the year ahead—optimistic…and also realistic about the hard work that will be required to make our optimism a reality.

We’re optimistic—because even in the eighth year of an aging recovery there are no visible signs of another recession. We expect the economy to continue to grow modestly in 2017. We’re optimistic—because the housing market is healthy, energy prices have stabilized, inflation is under control, stock markets are performing well, and consumer and business confidence have improved.

Most of all, business is optimistic because we see a once-in-a-generation opportunity to enact major reforms that could transform the American economy from a low-growth to a high-growth economy.</i>

But hey, don't believe your lying ears and eyes, leftists are sure we're doomed as doomed can be. lol.

fred flintstone said...

Hiram offered: Stocks perform much better under Democratic presidents.

History tells us stocks and business perform best under Democrat Presidents wearing the collar and leash of a GOP congress.

John said...

Fred,
Please remember that things were looking really good in 2007 & 2008 until they were not.

And that it is the Modern GOP Presidents who bought growth with National Debt borrowing. Which is bad for our country and our children.

I mean it took and Democratic President and a GOP House almost 6 years to start reducing the deficits. And now the foolish GOP politicians are going to blow them up again.

Anonymous said...

The stock market is at historic highs. <a href = "https://www.uschamber.com/speech/2017-state-american-business-address> The US Chamber of Commerce is giddy </a>

Who is president of the United Statea? But Trump is both stupid and dishonest, and that can't be good for stocks.

--Hiram

John said...

Trump is many questionable things, but I don't think stupid is one of them.

Here is working link:
The US Chamber of Commerce is Giddy

Anonymous said...

Donald thinks President Obama was born in Kenya. It's hard to imagine anything more stupid than that.

--Hiram

John said...

What he says and what he believes have little relationship to each other... One of his flaws...

The Birther movement was just a way to stir the pot and feed his ego / popularity.

Laurie said...

about Trump's intelligence, I think he is a very good example that there are many kinds of intelligence. On one level - like his tweet level analysis of very complex issues - he is incredibly stupid. On another level- like persuading 60 million people to vote for him for president he has some smarts. Then again when you compare Trump's speeches or press conferences to Obama, Obama sounds about 10 times smarter.

Then there is business - on one level Trump has been an idiotic failure at business and on another level he has created a fortune by branding himself.

Laurie said...

a couple more thoughts on Trump - this evening my mother raised the question did we think Trump has shown some signs of dementia. my reply was how would one separate that out from his usual incoherent ramblings. but given his age it is one more possibility to consider.

the other comment is also from my 80 year old mother, who referred to Trump as that SOB, language that is so out of character from her that it cracked me up, especially since my mother never has a bad word to say about anyone. For example she has always has kind things to say about GWB, like he did the best he could.

Anonymous said...

What he says and what he believes have little relationship to each other

Another in indication that he is stupid. He can't remember what he says, and he believes nothing at all.

--Hiram

fred flintstone said...

古人稱之為聰明的戰士 不僅贏得勝利 而且在贏得勝利方面表現出色

What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.

~Sun Tzu

John said...

Since Trump barely won and lost the popular vote... I wonder what that means for him?