Wednesday, August 19, 2020

MN COVID Update

I love when data supports science and common sense. :-)
(tap to enlarge)

9 comments:

jerrye92002 said...

so, correlation equals causation?

John said...

I am never sure why you fight simple science like this...

COVID spreads when people breathe on each other in close proximity, or when people touch things that COVID carriers have breathed on and then touch their eyes, nose mouth, etc.

Mandating and enforcing masks and /or social distancing reduces the chances of the above occurring.

Therefore when mandates are reduced and people return to their prior behaviors, COVID, hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths increase.

When mandates are reinstated the above rates fall...

Seems pretty simple...

Please share your other potential causal factors that the match so well.

jerrye92002 said...

Here are two: this is a seasonal virus, and the seasons change. People in closed spaces in winter spread it more than people outdoors in winter, and people indoors in air conditioning in summer spread it more than people outdoors in summer.

John said...

It is still hot out, the air conditioning is still on and the rate is dropping. Why?

You are so amusing... So much effort to deny a simple fact that surgical masks work... Next you will say that surgeons and staff should stop using them while operating on people. :-)

jerrye92002 said...

That's it, change the subject. Surgical masks work. That's not what we are talking about, is it? We're talking about the illegal Walz-edict kind of face masks that have more to do with virtue-signaling than any actual health benefit.

And the rate is still dropping because the R0, the number infected by each carrier, is getting lower as fewer people become susceptible. Thus the initial spike in northern states where people were in crowded indoor spaces (March-April), followed by a spike in southern states when people were in crowded indoor spaces in air-conditioning-- June-July. It's the same skewed bell curve as other diseases, just different height and length in different places. Sure, some things help, but to say that mask mandates are the sole "cause and effect" is woolgathering.

I'll tell you what makes more sense. That sneezing subway rider in New York is highly unlikely to infect that old bachelor farmer north of Foley. And as more of the subway riders get sick, the incidence of the disease surges, then tapers off in a purely mathematical way.

John said...

This data is for MN ONLY

COVID cases climbed initially.

It fell after the stay at home and business closure mandates were in place.

It started to climb when the mandates were relaxed.

It is starting to fall after the mask mandate was introduced.

Please feel free to deny common sense... :-)

Social distancing and/or masks are how one slows or stops the spread of respiratory transmitted viruses.

Now if the farmer in Foley stayed on the farm, however farmers love to go in for coffee, lunch, store visits, etc... That is why he does not need to wear the mask out on the farm.

jerrye92002 said...

You are still accepting that the government mandates were the direct cause of the changes in the death toll. You assume perfect compliance with the mandates, AND you wrongly assume those mandates are the only possible approach to limiting the spread of the disease. Remember, if Walz had strongly quarantined ONLY those in elderly living facilities, about 70% of deaths could have been prevented, WITHOUT putting 600,000 people out of work, increased suicides, domestic abuse and cancer deaths, among other things. I reiterate that those orders were initiated to avoid 50,000 deaths in MN, an error of about 48,000. Worth it?

John said...

Again with the distractions...

Maybe stay at home orders were not necessary if we citizens would have social distanced and wore masks when we could not.

Unfortunately there are a lot of people like yourself who fight these simple proven solutions even today after 176,000 Americans are dead, the debt has soared and the economy is depressed. :-( I hope your resistance to masks was worth it for you.

jerrye92002 said...

And I hope the number who died or will die of postponed surgeries, cancer screenings, depression, lack of an education, will be worth the massive imposition of government power when the simple suggestion that people mask up or socially distance, while bold steps to quarantine nursing homes, would have done as well and probably far better.

What is a distraction about the fact that the entire justification for this massive government power grab was entirely false?

And I'm curious: you moan about the economy being depressed, but what depressed it? You want obvious cause and effect, there it is: 600,000 Minnesotans thrown out of their jobs by government edict.