Tuesday, December 27, 2022

Wisdom of Peter Lynch

 1. "In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It's not the brain." (Lynch explained that investors need to know their pain tolerance, and often succeed if they simply hang on to their holdings.)

2. "You've got to look in the mirror every day and say, 'What am I going to do if the market goes down 10%? What do I do if it goes down 20%? Am I going to sell? Am I going to get out?' If that's your answer, you should consider reducing your stock holdings today."

3. "Stocks aren't lottery tickets. Behind every stock is a company. If the company does well, over time the stocks do well, and vice versa. You have to look at the company — that's what you research."

4. "The public's careful when they buy a house, when they buy a refrigerator, when they buy a car. They'll work hours to save a hundred dollars on a roundtrip air ticket. Yet they'll put $5,000 or $10,000 on some zany idea they heard on the bus. That's gambling. That's not investing. That's not research. That's just total speculation."

5. "In baseball terms, you want to buy in the second or third inning and get out in the seventh or eighth." (Lynch gave the example of Walmart, which only had stores in 15% of the US as a 10-year-old public company, spent the next 30 years expanding nationwide, and its stock skyrocketed 50-fold during that period.)

6. "When the business goes from semi-crummy to better to good, I'm probably out. You sell the company that was the growth story when there's no room to grow."

7. "Theoretically, the individual's edge has improved in the last 20, 30 years versus the professional. The problem is people have so many biases. They won't look at a railroad, an oil company, a steel company. They're only going to look at companies growing 40% a year. They won't look at turnarounds. Or companies with unions. You have to really be agnostic."

8. "Long term, the stock market's a very good place to be. But more people have lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than in the actual corrections. Trying to predict market highs and lows is not productive."

9. "I think if you spent over 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted over 10 minutes. It's not helpful. Everybody wants to predict the future, and I've tried to call the 1-800 psychic hotlines. It hasn't helped. The only thing I would look at is what's happening right now."



7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Reminds me of the days of Louis Rukeyser and Wall Street Week. Stocks have sort of gone out of favor since 9-11 or maybe its just me. I don't see that many financial commercials during NFL games. There used to be a huge number of them. The ones I do see are apologetic in tone. "My dad used to do something useful, but all I do is sell stocks." sort of ads. I am wondering will there be any Bitcoin ads during the Super Bowl this year?

--Hiram

John said...

It seems to me that financial planner firms have way too many commercials out there.

Maybe you have been blocking them out subconsciously.

Here are some of the most prolific: Fischer Investments, Schwab investment, Fidelity, Pacific Life, etc just off the top of my head.

I read one of Peter Lynch's books a long time ago.

He knew when the market was nearing a peak by everyone asking him for tips.

He knew the market was nearing the bottom when everyone avoided him...

Not sure if things have crashed bad enough to crush the dreams of true believers.

I mean the S&P is only down ~21% from it's peak. When it is 40% down things may improve.

John said...

I wonder what "celebrity" would be willing to be in a crypto ad... :-O

Anonymous said...

They are financial planning commercials, not stock market commercials. Nobody is selling stocks anymore. Fisher Investments, a company I have otherwise never heard, runs a huge number of commercials basically saying "We won't steal from you. We aren't crooks like all the other guys, whose clients we are eager to steal."

--Hiram

John said...

They all sell stocks, insurance, mutual funds, ETFs, etc. As my comic notes...

Anonymous said...

My proposal on this is for a basket of stocks and bonds to be created. These would be index funds of various kinds. Elected officials would be allowed to trade freely within this basket and be exempted from any insider trading laws as longs as their trades were contemporaneously disclosed.

--Hiram

John said...

Interesting idea.