So many of them have been listening to FOX news downplay the severity of the COVID Virus. So they are against masks and think it is just another flu. :-( And slowly but surely it seems to be surrounding them. :-( Oh well, I tried to warn folks out there but they will unfortunately learn the hard way unless something changes. :-(
Hard to believe we have 600 Minnesotans in the hospitals and over 200 in the ICU for this "harmless bug".
Hard to believe we have 600 Minnesotans in the hospitals and over 200 in the ICU for this "harmless bug".
65 comments:
Silly question: How many would we have according to the predictions that justified these massive house arrest orders? And why does Minnesota have the highest senior death percentage in the country?
no-major-increase-covid-cases-21-states-reopened-may-4
Sweden COVID Deaths 4340
Sweden Population :10.23 mil
MN COVID Deaths: 967
MN Population:5.64 mil
MN COVID Deaths w/ No Distancing based on Sweden's result would have been 2332.
Therefore ~1365 Minnesotans are still alive due to distancing.
What inconvenience are their lives worth to you?
VOX Analysis
MN Cases still Growing
Here's another analysis for you. MN deaths in nursing homes-- 81%, or 783, WITH lockdown orders. Therefore MN deaths with locking down only nursing homes, 184. Multiply by the "Sweden factor" and you get 443. And that doesn't count lives ruined by the lockdown itself. Are you happy with millions of lives ruined and 500 deaths, just because our government wants to act like petty tyrants?
John, even your VOX analysis says cases are going down while tests are going up, and says nothing about deaths, which are also WAY down (in blue counties) and moderately down overall. This is similar to other seasonal respiratory virii. Time to face reality, that we over-reacted and continue to over-react to something the CDC now says is only about twice the contagiousness and lethality as the common flu, and that is WITH a vaccine for the flu. Already, developers of the COVID vaccine are concerned that they may be unable to test because not enough people are getting the disease to verify that the vaccine works.
As I asked...
Therefore ~1365 Minnesotans are still alive due to distancing.
What inconvenience are their lives worth to you?
As I asked, why do you find 500 deaths a reasonable price to pay for destroying half a million lives through stupid shutdowns?
Please quantify this?
"destroying half a million lives"
5.64 million Minnesotans who had to work from home, live off unemployment and/or apply for their part of a $3 Trillion dollar borrowed bailout.
Versus 1365 Minnesotans being very and permanently DEAD...
Now I as a tax payer think the expense was too much, but you don't want to put price on a human life.
I have no problem doing the math though.
$3,000,000,000,000 Bailouts
divide by 365,000,000 Americans
equal $8,219 / American
times 5,640,000 Minnesotan
equals $46,356,164,384 for Minnesotans
divided by number of Minnesotans saved 1,365
equals $33,960,560 spent to save each Minnesotan
And that was mostly to save the people over 70 years old...
Probably not a good return on investment. :-(
Of course the Deaths in Sweden are still growing at a rapid rate...
Though it looks like Sweden's GDP also got hit... So the math may be more complicated
Oh oh... Cost per saved person to increase again
"And that was mostly to save the people over 70 years old...
Probably not a good return on investment. :-("
Not only that, but WHATEVER damage the lockdown has caused-- at least $3T nationally and "not enough"-- COULD have been largely obtained by locking down ONLY the nursing homes, places that were already "staying at home" already!
I am comparing to Sweden that did as you advised. It did not work...
What percentage of people over 70 live in nursing homes?
And what would you do with the care givers? Lock them in the homes?
I gave you a whole post for you to discuss your plan and you avoided commenting or answering my questions.
What plan do you require? Here is the simple one: strip Emperor Walz of his power to destroy the Minnesota economy by diktat. Highly restrict nursing home visits and do NOT, as NY did, send CV patients THERE for care. Tell everybody else to exercise caution as they go about their business. SUGGEST stay-at-home as possible. Suggest masks (though we know they're not very helpful). Order emergency supplies and equipment. In simple terms, don't panic, and don't let government create and use that panic to create even more problems. Remember, MN was supposed to have 50,000 deaths by now, WITH the lockdown in place? How do you spell "humongous blunder"?
US deaths/M 322, Sweden 431. Worth all the pain of the shutdown? Let's see...
another 100 deaths per million, times 330 million, is 33,000 deaths supposedly avoided, at a cost of at LEAST $3 Trillion, or $90 million per life. I don't care how soft-hearted and soft-headed you want to be, that is NOT a wise expense. For $3T, you could vaccinate every US citizen, even if the shot cost $10,000.
It sounds like Gov Walz is doing everything pretty much correctly then.
Actually though their estimates were wrong. 50,000 was with no mitigation. And blame the folks at U of MN for those incorrect estimates. Walz has to make due with what the "experts" tell him.
I am sticking to comparing Sweden to MN... US vs Sweden is too much of a stretch due to the US being much more diverse and urban...
Well it is good to see you are willing to put a dollar value on a human life after all.
And apparently you agree that this was too much... "$33,960,560 spent to save each Minnesotan"
Just a reminder, we the people apparently borrowed "$46,356,164,384 for Minnesotans" and Trump will likely borrow more soon. So the MN economy should be fine.
Your math is bad. Walz was told we would lose 70,000 Minnesotans without mitigation, 50,000 WITH it, and so far we are right around 1000, 800 of which could have been "mitigated" with far less damage to the general public. Being off by 10:1 is NOT good leadership or good policy or good sense, and it WAS obvious. So Walz gets credit for ALL the damage to the MN economy AND the loss of life that follows, PLUS the up to 800 people he COULD have saved by a sensible lockdown.
Sorry, that's 100:1. 20,000 vs 200.
I provided you the April 10th presentation with all the numbers. They do not match yours.
So, we're doing dueling numbers now? How thin does your rationale need to be to believe that we have NOT saved 20,000 or 50,000 lives, but only a tiny fraction of that? Even the CDC is now openly saying that we have a vast over-reaction to both the true contagiousness and the true morbidity of the disease. What is it you are defending? From where I sit, it looks like you are defending a tyrannical government's completely unnecessary and arbitrary destruction of the economy.
"...over-reaction to both the true contagiousness and the true morbidity of the disease."
But that doesn't tell the whole story. More people would die if the hospitals were at capacity. In other words, trying to flatten the curve through social distancing measures is what has help the most.
Moose
Has it? We rushed to make ICU beds, ventilators, etc. available, and they went unused. Whole field hospitals and hospital ships were rushed into service, and went unused. Hospitals actually laid off staff because they were not needed. The predicted "curve" was always a bogus number and these draconian lockdowns have done far more harm than good across most of the country.
And if these lockdowns are applied evenly and are so effective, then how do you account for the "blue county" death rate being several times higher than the "red county" death rate (though both are falling rapidly)?
Jerry,
Without sources, your claims are just words / opinion.
The goal is:
- over prepare and hope you do not need to use it.
- thankfully the shutdowns worked as well as they did.
The President and Government did the best they could with the data they had in early March. Would you have been happier if people were dying without ventilators, workers risked their lives without PPE, etc?
Blue counties have little urbanization, public transit, etc. Of course their rates should be lower. Though time will tell.
Remember that the virus is still moving into the places where they think masks are for wimps.
Hopefully we are on the downward trend finally, though apparently 20 people a day are still dying.
And with the protests and things opening up.. It will be interesting to see what happens.
"then how do you account for the "blue county" death rate being several times higher than the "red county" death rate"
Aren't blue counties typically urban?
The simplest answer is population density.
Moose
A friend and I hypothesized that it hit the States with major International airports and Amtrak commuter rail worst. Lots of legs to carry it around...
Now it is more slowly heading to the sticks.
Oops. Forgot my link.
Major International Airports
Amtrak Map
"Without sources, your claims are just words / opinion." And unless you can prove me wrong, my "opinion" is not going to change. I HAVE the facts, but you won't believe me about that, and yet refuse to make any effort to find them for yourself. Sure, I have a confirmation bias; I find something that supports my view, from what I consider a reliable source (like the CDC), and quit looking. You want to argue with me AND the CDC?
Yes, Moose, of course you are correct. !:-0 Blue counties are more urban, have greater international visitor traffic, and crowded public transport (NYC has far more cases than LA). So why didn't we lock down NYC and leave the rest of us alone?
John: it's science
Jerry,
Here is a source somewhat supporting your comment.
It still looks pretty bad...
"The CDC's current "best guess" is that — in a scenario without any further social distancing or other efforts to control the spread of the virus — roughly 4 million patients would be hospitalized in the U.S. with COVID-19 and 500,000 would die over the course of the pandemic. That's according to the agency's new parameters that the Center for Public Integrity plugged into a simple epidemiological model."
That is if you truly believe what the CDC says?
And here is the CDC statement regarding the seasonality.
"It is not yet known whether weather and temperature affect the spread of COVID-19. Some other viruses, like those that cause the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months. There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 and investigations are ongoing."
The folks in Brazil, Mexico, India likely see it on going.
As for shutdowns... Governors made that decision.
And MN pretty well meets the criteria...
"urban, have greater international visitor traffic, and crowded public transport"
MINNEAPOLIS maybe meets that definition. Outstate, not really. Again, just quarantining the senior living places would have prevented over 80% of the deaths, so why did the other 98% of us have to give up our livelihoods?
As for seasonality, we pretty much have that data, too. It is.
And I'm still puzzled by the reliance on "models" as science. Walz was told we would have 50,000 deaths WITH the lockdown. Where are the other 49,000? Normally when a prediction is off by 50:1, you discard that prediction and the action resulting from it, and do something that makes sense, instead.
Jerry,
You are like a an old album if rigid grooves...
Give you a day or 2 and then you forget what you learned the day before.
How would you "quarantine" the senior living places from their staff?
Or do you plan to make them quarantine also? (ie contagious up to 2 wks before symptoms)
If it was seasonal the warm areas of the world should not have thousands of people dying.
See the sources above for what the original models truly showed. And what Walz said.
1. Not my job, but obviously if you quarantine staff with the seniors, that works, and you only need do it for a couple weeks. What you do NOT do is send known CV patients there for care!
2. Warmer areas of the world, absent other factors, DO have lower deaths. Notice Southern Italy, for example. And read the scientific research. Or look at the charts.
3. And why should I look at your sources? Yours are as likely to suffer from a rigid confirmation bias as mine, and I trust mine. Especially when banged against a little common sense. Most coronavirii are seasonal. Research shows this one is, too.
4. Tell me again what Walz said about how many lives would be saved with the lockdown. My information says he promised 20,000 saved and 50,000 dead. Anything close to that is in the area of "ridiculously far off."
1. You would need to quarantine for as long as COVID was in our society... ~1 yr?
2. Brazil, India, etc are experiencing huge out breaks. Time will tell.
3 & 4. Mine are Walz's presentations. No bias there.
1 Define your terms--" COVID was in" So if there is one case in 330 million people, and they show no symptoms, we still kill the entire US economy? The incubation period is two weeks, so if you lock down tight for two weeks, anybody that already has it will get better or die, and nobody else will GET it from them.
2. Brazil and India have population densities, sanitation problems, etc., and some in Brazil are in their winter months.
3. So what are they? Anything like 10s of thousands NOT saveable, compared with reality?
1. Even if we opened up the economy, how long do you think it would take to diminish due to natural herd immunity?
2. And people sitting across the table at the diner talking breathe on each other... I am hoping it slows some.
3. Here you go... Again...
3. Not helpful. That's the May 19 model, NOT the model on which Walz made his decision. That model was crap and [almost] everybody knows it. /Acknowledging it/, though, is a whole different thing. We have those "science deniers," and you know who you are, who think that if the data doesn't agree with the models, change the data.
1. There's a helpful paper out there which says that "herd immunity" takes place much faster in a "non-homogenous" population. Perhaps as few as 10% need to have resistance to the disease for the infection rate "R0" to drop to less than 1.
2. No need to hope, the disease is dying out as summer comes. The statistics prove it, despite the fearmongers' efforts to keep it going.
3. Are you trying to be difficult? The April 10 modelling is right there.
1. How long??? And do you think the employees, suppliers, etc are going to go for it? Do you think it would be legal?
2. MN Deaths and Hospitalizations do not support your opinion. :-(
MN is an outlier. Perhaps the way we count Corona deaths is suspect, or perhaps we have a serious problem in our senior centers not amenable to sunshine and fresh air. These folks are cooped up, and account for over 80% of MN deaths-- highest in the nation.
Also, the April 10th model isn't helpful either, since Walz issued his royal decree on March 27th. Was he pulling numbers out of the [air]? If you can find what I found, that Walz was working from the notion of 70,000 did with the SHO and "only" 50,000 with it, then you can tell me how successful this has been. And remember, the original order was supposed to expire on April 10.
What do you mean legal? Arbitrarily denying people the freedom to work, associate, feed their family, take what they see as a reasonable risk to do so?
No one has legally challenged Walz's initial decisions and actions.
Apparently a lot of the South are outliers also
Not so, but of course your "sources" wouldn't notice it. And I don't think anybody much argued with Walz's initial TWO-WEEK SHO. Maybe even 3 or 4 weeks. After that it clearly has done more harm than good, or could have been successful with a lot less pain.
Even now We are still not there
And are we doing anything to reduce it? We've been "sheltered in place" for over 10 weeks. You think another week will make a huge difference? I notice your 3rd chart shows everybody has a "drop," just some more than others. Are you one of those who believes we cannot open the economy until after Nov. 3rd? At which time CV will cease to be of any concern whatsoever?
Jerry,
I think they are just basing their maps on the CDC recommendations and data.
Trump is in charge of the CDC so I guess that make them his recommendations.
We have been opening up since mid-May, I even got my hair cut. :-)
Now we will see if the opening up starts the virus moving again?
Actually Map 3 seems to indicate that most of the states have not seen a sustained drop of 2 weeks.
Have you seen the map that shows red counties not seeing a big drop, but that BLUE counties have a 50% dropoff? Of course the peak in blue counties is about 10 times what the peak in red counties was. A lot easier to find a trend if the numbers are bigger.
I don't think we have a basis for this discussion. Gov. Walz has discarded all moral authority for ordering us into house arrest, after his appearance in a packed church.
No idea which map you are talking about.
And yes it looks like Walz violated his own rules. Though I am not counting them all and I am not sure what he should have done different?
Tell a bunch of angry Black people who just watched one of their own murdered by a police officer to stand outside? Especially since they had all likely been face to face in the protests.
I think that is like trying to close the door after all the cows are outside.
Walz’s new order outlines the guidelines for services to resume for up to 250 people or 25 percent of a building’s capacity as determined by the fire marshal, whichever is lower. According to the order, places of worship are to:
In all settings, ensure a minimum of 6 feet of physical distancing between households
In indoor settings, occupancy must not exceed 25 percent of the normal occupant capacity as determined by the fire marshal, with a maximum of 250 people in a single self-contained space.
In outdoor settings, gatherings must not exceed 250 individuals.
Develop and implement a COVID-19 Preparedness Plan in accordance with guidance developed by the Minnesota Department of Health.
Is this the map.
It just shows where it started and the direction it is moving. From the International cities out to the sticks.
It is pretty similar to how COVID is moving around MN...
"Tell a bunch of angry Black people who just watched one of their own murdered by a police officer to stand outside? Especially since they had all likely been face to face in the protests."
Exactly right. It simply points out the absurd and arbitrary nature of the Governor's edicts. We even have people saying outright that protest is a legitimate exception to the COVID rules. Just drove by the big candy store, owned by a friend of Walz, that somehow became an "essential business."
You are arguing that we have a health emergency justifying overwhelming, arbitrary and unlimited government power. I don't see it anywhere in the numbers. Gov't recommendations for "keeping safe," yes, but the only mandatory efforts beyond two weeks duration whould have been to protect the senior facilities. The real data never matched the models.
Well for the good of the old and infirm, it is a good thing you are not the governor. :-)
Are you kidding??? The Gov has a record of the highest percentage senior mortality in the country! Unconfirmed that, like NYC, CV patients were ordered INTO those facilities by the Gov.
I find your title for this piece disingenuous, at best. For the good of Everybody, except rioters and looters, it's a pity that Walz is the Gov.
We will have a agree to disagree as is often the case. :-)
You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. But of course you get to choose which facts you ignore.
Maybe someday you will actually present facts, data and sources. :-)
OK, how about the FACT, widely reported including the MN DHS, that MN has the highest senior mortality percentage in the nation?
Instead of just asking for sources for facts that you COULD look up for yourself, but which might not confirm your obvious bias, you choose to simply dismiss facts that are "inconvenient" to your narrative when they are given to you.
I am not sure where you got your data, it seems questionable since there seems to be a LOT of data inaccuracy in the reporting.
I am not saying it is wrong, but it may be.
It seems like a lot of states are not reporting.
Some states are not testing dead people in the nursing homes...
Now if MN is doing both we may just be more accurate and transparent.
I love this AARP statement...
"Although each state is required to report confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in nursing homes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — and individual facilities are required to report that information to residents and their families — they are not required to share it publicly. Some states are therefore choosing not to. And while the federal government announced it would share each state’s data with the public, it’s not doing so yet.
Most states are releasing some information on nursing home cases and deaths. But “it’s truly a patchwork of inconsistent data,” says Elaine Ryan, AARP vice president for state advocacy and strategy integration. Some states are reporting the names of facilities with cases and deaths. Others are releasing just the total number across all long-term care facilities. Some states are monitoring all types of long-term care facilities, while others track only nursing homes. Some report daily, and others weekly. In short, the variations are huge."
It looks like they were following Trump's CDC Guidelines... What would you have had them do differently?
I would have official CDC guidelines distinguish between "death FROM CV" and "death WITH CV." It is official MN State data that says 81% of deaths have been in senior housing of some kind, highest in the nation, so whom do you want to believe?
There is certainly inaccuracy in the data, especially when there is a belief that hospitals get paid MORE for a CV death than for other causes. And under-counting or under-reporting for political purposes is certainly a possibility. AND of course, media hype has blown the whole thing far out of proportion in the attempt to destroy President Trump with this latest "scandal/crisis." The 1968 Hong Kong Flu took as many American lives, all WITHOUT the shutdowns, imperial decrees and breathless reporting 24/7 we have today.
Over the last week, to paraphrase Forrest Gump, "and just like that, social distancing didn't matter."
I trust the MN data which apparently is more thorough and transparent than that of other states.
I am pretty sure the MN Health Officials did not claim to be the "highest in the nation".
You missed my question...
It looks like they were following Trump's CDC Guidelines... What would you have had them do differently?
They did not claim it, but it is true. And I'm not certain their data is any better than anybody else's, especially when it is being used to justify a massive lockdown. As for seniors, that you claim to be concerned about, Here is just one source:
one
I told you what I would do differently, but we have no way of knowing the degree to which it is a problem reflected in the data. I hear stories that it is official CDC policy to label "death WITH" as "death FROM," including things like auto accident in the Covid totals.
Post a Comment