Saturday, May 16, 2020

Lock Up the Elderly and Infirm?

I have been spending time in Jerry's world.  Please join us and help me understand his thinking?
"There you go again, simply ASSUMING that the shutdown "slowed the transmission." And by the way, I value human life in its entirety-- the freedom to move about, worship, speak, socialize, WORK, and to take reasonable precautions with ones own health and the health of others. 
In New York, Cuomo ORDERED nursing homes to take in active COVID patients! And he let the subways continue to run. A shutdown that should have been well-targeted and lasted 2-3 weeks might have been effective, but what was actually done was not, so 1/3 of all US deaths attributed to CV are in New York. 
Time for you to admit that these statewide tyrannical edicts have done more harm than good over huge swaths of the country. I'm simply not buying that "if it saves one life" nonsense. People die. Governors are not gods." Jerry
Jerry  So based on this. "And by the way, I value human life in its entirety-- the freedom to move about, worship, speak, socialize, WORK, and to take reasonable precautions with ones own health and the health of others." 
You are willing to have other people literally die so you can do as you wish? 
And of course lock downs work, as Vietnam proved very well.  We just did not lock down early enough or hard enough... Remember that Trump was denying the need in the end of February, just before it became real to him and he supported the lock downs.
What do you think the states should have done differently that could have saved more lives? Please be specific. (G2A / John)
States could have locked down just long-term-care facilities, perhaps even quarantining employees in place. They could have /suggested/ stay-at-home, masks, social distancing where possible. NYC could have sanitized the subways frequently. They could have NOT criticized Trump for shutting down travel with China and Europe, and NOT shut down medical facilities unnecessarily, and not picked winners and losers in other businesses. They could have had emergency supplies available or at least on order. 
And what makes you think that states "saved more lives" with these drastic measures? Might the opposite be true? Jerry
So here is Jerry's list as I understand:
  1. States could have locked down just long-term-care facilities, perhaps even quarantining employees in place. 
  2. They could have /suggested/ stay-at-home, masks, social distancing where possible. 
  3. NYC could have sanitized the subways frequently. 
  4. They could have NOT criticized Trump for shutting down travel with China and Europe.
  5. They could have NOT shut down medical facilities unnecessarily.
  6. They could have not picked winners and losers in other businesses. 
  7. They could have had emergency supplies available or at least on order.
  8. May we have saved lives today and caused people to have shorter lives?
And my new response to Jerry...
  1. Do you think any of those low dollar workers would be willing to stay away from their life, families, etc for many months?  I mean this proposal does nothing to make the virus go away. And please remember that a LOT of the dead are not in the long term care centers.  
  2. They did "suggest"... In most states no one was being arrested or charged.  Since I work for an essential business I really have not noticed a change and no one has ever asked me why I was out of the house.
  3. Apparently they started sanitizing the subway system on March 3rd. And with the stay home orders ridership decreased by 90%.  They likely could not shut public transportation down since the essential workers needed it. 
  4. Trump's travel restrictions were somewhat useless because he did not follow through. And he did not limit travel from Europe until mid-March.  And by then it was too late, the barn door had been open too long.
  5. I do not think any essential medical facilities or procedures have been shutdown?  What are you thinking of?
  6. How would you have changed the critical industries and personnel definitions?  Are you thinking they should have left the gathering places open?
  7. They apparently did have medical supplies on order for a normal year, and they increased their orders ASAP.  However demand exceed supply and the national stockpile was not adequate and or fully stocked.  
  8. We are having a hard enough time determining how many are dying from what today, (ie covid, depression, scared to go to the hospital, etc)  And you want to try to guess the long term impacts of shut downs?  "Sorry Granny... We chose that you should die instead of stress these other folks out?"
So in summary it seems that your proposal to save lives was that we should have quarantined all the elderly, infirm and their care givers for 6+ months?  And /suggested/ stay-at-home, masks, social distancing where possible.  And let any businesses stay open that wanted to.  Does that seem an accurate summary?  Do you think this would have worked and saved more lives?

Link to an Interesting Detailed Timeline


8 comments:

John said...

This will be a useful link to see what happens as states open.

Texas case numbers growing some after opening up

Texas COVID Website

jerrye92002 said...

Don't tell me cases. The more tests we do, the more cases we find. Tell me about deaths, because that does not depend on how much testing is done. One is not "asymptomatic" or "recovered" from dead. And anecdotally at least, some states are that opening up and seeing a decrease.

John said...

Only time will tell... My guess is that deaths will increase again. The virus now has legs again. :-)


Now what about answers to my questions posed in the post?

Anonymous said...

Harry Lime does cost benefit analysis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21h0G_gU9Tw

--Hiram

John said...

Harry Lime does cost benefit analysis

John said...

Jerry,
Again.

Now what about answers to my questions posed in the post?

Anonymous said...

Trump's travel restrictions were somewhat useless because he did not follow through. And he did not limit travel from Europe until mid-March. And by then it was too late, the barn door had been open too long.

Trump is much more concerned with the appearance of an initiative than the initiative itself. Travel bans are a really tough policy. They involve separation of people, they mean denial of access to people and things that help. They are de facto lockdowns, and people have gone on at length lately about how economic lockdowns are so damaging to the economy and those people aren't wrong. Because travel bans are difficult, Trump didn't really impose one. His travel bans were full of exceptions, and they were late. This is why they weren't effective. He was simply unwilling to take the political heat for making tough decision. Trump has a hard time making decisions preferring to shift them to others because that puts him in a better position to second guess them.

--Hiram

John said...

Very true...

He loves to say he is the man" until things go poorly.

Then he likes to say "it was them".

I have never seen such a spineless unwilling to take responsibility "leader".