Monday, August 31, 2020

Policing and Race

A friend of mine disagrees with my summary at how to fix gaps.
Now I know that many of you want to obsess about Blacks, Racism, etc, but that is NOT a measurable issue.  And we have tons of Native Americans, Hispanics, and even White families that suffer in very similar ways. And after looking into the numbers, the unfortunate reality is that it is likely;that most of the additional police encounters with Black and Hispanic individuals higher likelihood of them being in gangs and involved in crime. And yes there is ; a war going on between the gangs, other gangs and the police, and yes sometimes innocent civilians pay the price. So cut the police a break, while making sure the bad officers are punished.
So I asked him to provided more data and he gave me this. WAPO List of Sources  They will take some time for me to browse so I shared these first thoughts and questions.
I will look further into them. The light skim indicated that they seem to keep making the same error.   They state the sample X is different than sample Y with the assumption that the populations for X and Y are the same. 
When we know that population X on average has far more gang membership, commits more violent crime, has less money, has fewer support systems, etc than population Y.
So of course the sampling should look different. 
And yes police are looking for suspicious situations for whatever reason. (ie old vehicles, gang style dress, loitering, etc) And unfortunately people driving cars that look like they should belong to someone else. It is actually what we expect from them isn't it? 
Or do we want them to err on the side ignoring suspicious or significantly out of the norm situations? 
So what do you think the results of sampling should look like? 
Should White and Black people be pulled of over at the exact same rate? Should they be shot at the same rate? 
If not, how much variation is acceptable within "non-racist" action? 
One more factor that could impact the numbers. Unfortunately the poor neighborhoods with more crime have a larger police presence. 
A large police presence means everyone is watched more. Meaning any suspicious behavior / situation may be checked on. 
In my neighborhood, sometimes people to close their garage doors and we never have the police check. They simple are almost never have a reason to be in our neighborhood. 
Now is more police density a race issue or a crime likelihood issue? 
Reducing the MPLS police by 50% would likely reduce the number of minority stops / arrests. Would that be a good or a bad thing for those communities?
 




8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just because something isn't measurable, doesn't mean it isn't an issue. Racism, not to mention race is a complicated issue. The fact that it isn't measuarable just makes it much harder to address.

--Hiram

Anonymous said...

Should White and Black people be pulled of over at the exact same rate? Should they be shot at the same rate?

Does the fact that race and racism are not measurable affect how we address questions like that. If we don't know what the rates are, how can rates govern our actions?

--Hiram

John said...

The rates are pretty well documented as my friend's source shows.

The question is what causes the rates to be different among different groups, neighborhoods, etc.

Sean said...

Policing areas more heavily will produce "more crime" just on the basis of the officers being there more often.

We should continue to point out the fact that:
1.) Even with an uptick in murders this year, total violent crime in most major cities is flat to reduced
2.) Violent crime rates remain significantly lower than they were 20-30 years ago.

John said...

My buddy Juan was resistant to the fact that violent crime is higher in town. I added graphics to my post and see the links below.


So the huge variation in shot detectors, confirmed murders, confirmed violent crimes, etc are all just sampling errors / bias?

I have to wonder how the other communities are hiding these violent crimes from the communities, news, realtors, citizens, etc? 🙂

Mpls: ~10 murders / 100K people / yr
Plymouth: ~1 murder /100K people / yr
Mpls Pop. : ~429K

MPR Minneapolis Murders

Mpls City-Data

John said...

So back to my questions... If certain communities have 10 times the violent crime rate of other communities... And they have very different make ups...

How does one compare policing, arrests, etc?

How does one determine the causal factors? (ie police density, crime density, community poverty / wealth, race, family structures, gang membership, other?)

John said...

One more note...

And don't forget that shot spotter data in MPLS... It does not even know who is shooting... No racial bias there.

Sean said...

I'm not comparing Minneapolis to Plymouth, nor am I suggesting that increased patrolling is the only cause of those discrepancies.