Monday, January 21, 2019

House and Senate Move Seperately

35 comments:

John said...

From Sean else where...

Not only was this deal on a non-starter under the terms Trump announced, but now that it has been put into bill form, it's even worse:

* only covers those who were accepted into DACA before Trump shut it down; not all who are eligible for DACA
* eliminates the ability for Central Americans to apply for asylum at the border
* limits asylum grants to 15,000 per year

John said...

Jerry,
You can come and play again. This post has a much more friendly title for the sensitive reader. :-)

Laurie said...

Why Trump's border wall is not just a wall

John said...

Laurie,
An interesting and somewhat silly piece...

The author wanted to tie all those things to the "wall / border barrier"...

When all those things are just Tribe Liberal and Tribe Conservative entrenched on either side of their self created non-physical walls...

Maybe that is an accurate image... Two castles about 500 feet apart... With occupants in each who strive to yell and throw things at each other. And anyone trapped in the middle has to keep trying live while the crazy folks fight over them. :-)

Laurie said...

The point of my link is it is not a simple, straightforward debate on the best ideas for border security. I would say Trump has made it more than that with his racist approach to immigration issues.

John said...

I see it a little differently...

Tribe Liberal sees the USA as a lifeboat for the unfortunate people of the world. They want an immigration policy based on what is good for the families, refugees, asylum seekers and who ever shows up at our borders.

Even if it encourages more people to risk their lives and those of their children to get to the border. Or if it financial harms our existing low educated low skill citizens.

Tribe Conservative wants an immigration policy that helps some of the world's unfortunate. However it more strongly focuses on what America and it's citizens need. More educated professionals who will help us compete in a global world, and will reduce costs for our own struggling citizens... Not compete with them for jobs, welfare, etc.

Also, Conservatives want to dissuade people from risking their lives and those of their children to just show up.

John said...

So if one ignores being sucked into the silly liberal "focus on race" obsession...

The USA is in the enviable position of having literally billions of people who would love to move here and get citizenship.

What types of individuals will help us compete globally and help our current poor citizens escape poverty?

How many new immigrants should we bring in each year? We are at 1+ million per year right now.

Sean said...

"Tribe Conservative wants an immigration policy that helps some of the world's unfortunate. However it more strongly focuses on what America and it's citizens need. More educated professionals who will help us compete in a global world, and will reduce costs for our own struggling citizens... Not compete with them for jobs, welfare, etc."

Funny, how you make these sweeping statements, yet they can't pass a bill to do these things when they're in charge of the government.

That's because what Tribe Conservative really wants is less immigration, period.

John said...

I think they still needed 60 votes in the Senate... Which of course they never had...

John said...

VOX Plan Comparisons

Sean said...

They didn't even have 50 GOP votes.

Sean said...

I think what we're seeing here, perhaps for the first time, is the President coming face-to-face with his own unpopularity, something he was insulated from when he had a compliant House of Representatives.

He's given two national speeches since the start of the shutdown that haven't moved the needle at all. His own approval rating is slowly eroding. A new CBS poll today shows his position is broadly losing -- 66% want the government back open without wall funding, 70% say the shutdown isn't worth it, and worst for him, people prefer Pelosi's handling of the shutdown over Trump's.

He's going to be forced to either drag this thing out and make his position worse with the independents he's going to need to be re-elected or cave and risk angering his base.

John said...

I am not sure he cares what independents think...

And it seems that his approval numbers are pretty stable so far.

John said...

I liked this quote from your source.

"Seven in 10 Americans don't think the issue of a border wall is worth a government shutdown, which they say is now having a negative impact on the country. But partisans don't want their own side to budge: 65 percent of Republicans say President Trump should refuse a budget unless it includes wall funding, and 69 percent of Democrats think congressional Democrats should keep refusing to fund it."

It pretty much defines the problem. :-)

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, Trump seems to be putting energy into nearly nothing else.

I guess there IS a silver lining, after all.

Moose

Sean said...

"I am not sure he cares what independents think..."

At some point, reality is going to set in, if he's interested in being re-elected.

John said...

A. I am not sure he thinks that far ahead.
B. His base and the electoral system treated him pretty good in 2016.
C. The DEM candidates seem to be embracing the far Left, so folks like me will need to choose between 2 evils again.

Sean said...

"And it seems that his approval numbers are pretty stable so far."

No, it's pretty clear they are starting to fall. The graph on the RCP page shows it and evidence continues to pile up. Like this, from this afternoon:

"A strong majority of Americans blame President Donald Trump for the government shutdown and reject his primary rationale for a border wall. That’s according to a new poll that shows the turmoil in Washington is dragging his approval rating to its lowest level in more than a year.

The poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 34 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, down from 42 percent in December.

Trump’s approval among Republicans remains high, but his standing with independents is among its lowest points of his presidency."

AP-NORC poll: Shutdown drags Trump approval to yearlong low

Sean said...

"The DEM candidates seem to be embracing the far Left, so folks like me will need to choose between 2 evils again."

Your definition of "evil" is puzzling.

John said...

I'll stick with RCP averages and the long term trend.

Sorry but the USA becoming France is a very scary concept for a personal property rights pro-capitalism guy like me.


I just posted this elsewhere.
----
All modern countries that I know of are mixed economies... Be they the USA or France...

The question is how much of the country's GDP do citizens get to control?

And how much does the government get to control?


Currently the USA is ~37% government to 63% citizen...
Whereas France is ~56% government to 44% citizen...

That is pretty substantial.

Laurie said...

about "the silly liberal "focus on race" obsession...

With Trump it is all about racism. He routinely calls people who want to immigrate at eh southern border rapists, murderers, drug dealers, and criminals. Why don't these comments offend you?

Anonymous said...

Why did you choose France?

Moose

John said...

Moose,
It was at the top of the list.

Laurie,
Trump's lies, attacks and general manipulation techniques offend me most every day as I have commented on many times. However his actions usually are not nearly as extreme.

Laurie said...

Shutting down the govt for a month is pretty extreme.

Sean said...

"Sorry but the USA becoming France is a very scary concept for a personal property rights pro-capitalism guy like me."

Has France banned personal property?

"However his actions usually are not nearly as extreme."

I'm not sure if you've noticed, but the government has been shut down for over a month because of decisions that he made to toss out a bipartisan compromise. Or that he blew up the deficit in good economic times to give rich people a massive tax cut. Or that he constantly belittles our allies, and that the SecDef resigned because of his erratic nature.

If that's not extreme, but the idea of "maybe everyone should have reliable access to health care" is extreme, then I guess I'm an extremist. And proud of it!

Sean said...

Greg Sargent has a good piece today on the path forward.

There is only one way to break Trump’s pathology. Pelosi has found it.

John said...

No. France has not banned personal property. However each individual citizens has a LOT less control over their personal finances.

Currently the USA is ~37% government to 63% citizen...
Whereas France is ~56% government to 44% citizen

As for the shutdown link, I do agree with this part.

"Democrats are now operating from the premise that this is really what’s at stake: Whether Trump and McConnell will recognize the outcome of the last election going forward. As Rep. Pramila Jayapal (Wash.) put it: “This is no longer just about the wall, it’s about how Donald Trump operates with the Democratic majority in the House.” Rep. Tom Malinowski (N.J.) adds: “If we give in to this tactic in any way we will validate it, and there will be no end to these shutdowns.”

These basic stakes have been badly obscured by the both-sides fog machine. Perhaps the only thing that can cut through that fog is the power of “no.”"

John said...

This is simply a BIG POWER PLAY by both sides.

So they are both saying NO to the other...

The DEMs are saying we will NOT negotiate because it would set a bad precedent.

The GOPs are saying we will NOT negotiate because it would set a bad precedent.

And they are both saying the pain the country and government are feeling is worth my keeping power

Which is too bad for the country and the employees. :-(

Sean said...

And the comparison to France is apt in what way, exactly? I'm not aware of anything in any Democratic proposal that would mimic the French welfare state.

John said...

Please remember that the % of GDP discussion has nothing to do with the current shutdown... It had to do with the 2020 elections.

"The DEM candidates seem to be embracing the far Left, so folks like me will need to choose between 2 evils again. John"

Your definition of "evil" is puzzling. Sean"

It will be interesting to see how far Left the DEM platform moves. (ie single payer healthcare, free higher education, more paid leave, guaranteed minimum income, other?)

Sean said...

Let's look at Bernie's proposals -- which are by far the most generous of those being proposed by any Democrat:

"Free public college": $47B annually
"Paid family leave": At the top end $38B annually, other analyses say closer to $30B

These two programs total less than half the cost of the Trump tax cut.

"Guaranteed minimum income": The closest any Dem comes to this is the Kamala Harris "LIFT the Middle Class" plan, which essentially functions as a massive expansion of the EITC. At about $200B annually, it's about the same budget hit as the Trump tax cut.

"Single payer healthcare": some Dems are calling for it, but there aren't any politically viable proposals at this point. We're far more likely to get a public option, which would be significantly cheaper (there's already a Democratic bill in the House that would enable this and be deficit-neutral).

I don't think there's any need for worry about you being forced to eat croissants.

John said...

Sean,
On the opposite side there is no serious discussion of ending welfare, social security, Medicaid, etc, etc, etc...

And yet Tribe Liberal is concerned that is the GOP end goal...

The challenge is the slow long changes over time.

As we often discuss, no Liberal is willing to tell how much will be enough?

By the way, I like croissants especially as part of a breakfast sandwich.

John said...

So if the DEMs offer a candidate who is:

- pro-raising taxes on all of us... (ie balance the budget)
- pro-holding spending increases to inflation or less...
- pro-holding the bureaucracies accountable for results...
- against harboring illegal workers and improved border security

I would probably vote for the DEM Presidential candidate. :-)

Sean said...

"As we often discuss, no Liberal is willing to tell how much will be enough?"

That's right, because we don't frame the issue in the way you do. Arbitrary %GDP limits picked "because they sound good" is a terrible way to run an economy.

"I would probably vote for the DEM Presidential candidate. "

Just stop the charade. You're not voting for the Democrat no matter what.

John said...

I voted for 3 DEMs in Nov.

Anything is possible given the correct candidate and platform...

Remember... I am a moderate. :-)